Dataset Information

Refining Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation-Related Stroke Using the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc Score.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:In people with atrial fibrillation (AF), periods of sinus rhythm present an opportunity to detect prothrombotic atrial remodeling through measurement of P-wave indices (PWIs)-prolonged P-wave duration, abnormal P-wave axis, advanced interatrial block, and abnormal P-wave terminal force in lead V1. We hypothesized that the addition of PWIs to the CHA2DS2-VASc score would improve its ability to predict AF-related ischemic stroke. METHODS:We included 2229 participants from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) and 700 participants from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with incident AF who were not on anticoagulants within 1 year of AF diagnosis. PWIs were obtained from study visit ECGs before development of AF. AF was ascertained using study visit ECGs and hospital records. Ischemic stroke cases were based on physician adjudication of hospital records. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs of PWIs for ischemic stroke. Improvement in 1-year stroke prediction was assessed by C-statistic, categorical net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement. RESULTS:Abnormal P-wave axis was the only PWI associated with increased ischemic stroke risk (hazard ratio, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.33-2.55) independent of CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and that resulted in meaningful improvement in stroke prediction. The ? estimate was approximately twice that of the CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and thus abnormal P-wave axis was assigned 2 points to create the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc score. This improved the C-statistic (95% CI) from 0.60 (0.51-0.69) to 0.67 (0.60-0.75) in ARIC and 0.68 (0.52-0.84) to 0.75 (0.60-0.91) in MESA (validation cohort). In ARIC and MESA, the categorical net reclassification improvements (95% CI) were 0.25 (0.13-0.39) and 0.51 (0.18-0.86), respectively, and the relative integrated discrimination improvement (95% CI) were 1.19 (0.96-1.44) and 0.82 (0.36-1.39), respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Abnormal P-wave axis-an ECG correlate of left atrial abnormality- improves ischemic stroke prediction in AF. Compared with CHA2DS2-VASc, the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc is a better prediction tool for AF-related ischemic stroke.

SUBMITTER: Maheshwari A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6481672 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Refining Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation-Related Stroke Using the P<sub>2</sub>-CHA<sub>2</sub>DS<sub>2</sub>-VASc Score.

Maheshwari Ankit A Norby Faye L FL Roetker Nicholas S NS Soliman Elsayed Z EZ Koene Ryan J RJ Rooney Mary R MR O'Neal Wesley T WT Shah Amil M AM Claggett Brian L BL Solomon Scott D SD Alonso Alvaro A Gottesman Rebecca F RF Heckbert Susan R SR Chen Lin Y LY

Circulation 20190101 2

<h4>Background</h4>In people with atrial fibrillation (AF), periods of sinus rhythm present an opportunity to detect prothrombotic atrial remodeling through measurement of P-wave indices (PWIs)-prolonged P-wave duration, abnormal P-wave axis, advanced interatrial block, and abnormal P-wave terminal force in lead V1. We hypothesized that the addition of PWIs to the CHA<sub>2</sub>DS<sub>2</sub>-VASc score would improve its ability to predict AF-related ischemic stroke.<h4>Methods</h4>We included ...[more]

PMID: 30586710

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Project description:Background and Purpose- Despite modest predictive ability for ischemic stroke (IS), the CHA2DS2-VASc score is widely used for stroke prediction in atrial fibrillation. Among patients with atrial fibrillation, we aimed to (1) compare the IS or transient ischemic attack (TIA) incidence by CHA2DS2-VASc in blacks and Hispanics versus whites; (2) compare predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc score for IS or TIA in blacks and Hispanics versus whites; and (3) determine improvement in predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc score from addition of race/ethnicity. Methods- Using data from Optum Clinformatics, a large administrative claims database, we analyzed patients with atrial fibrillation enrolled in commercial and Medicare Advantage health plans from 2009 to 2015. We computed IS or TIA incidence rates, improvement in C statistic, continuous and categorical net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement from addition of race/ethnicity to CHA2DS2-VASc. Results- A total of 267 419 patients (mean age, 73.1 [SD, 12.3] years; 46.6% women; 84.2% white, 8.5% black, 7.3% Hispanic) were studied. After a mean follow-up of 22 months, there were 6202 IS or TIA events. IS or TIA incidence rates were higher in blacks than Hispanics or whites (1.65, 1.40, and 1.22 cases per 100 person-years, respectively) and increased with higher CHA2DS2-VASc, with no race/ethnicity-based differences (P for interaction=0.17). The CHA2DS2-VASc and CHA2DS2-VASc+race/ethnicity C statistic (95% CI) were 0.679 (0.670-0.686) and 0.679 (0.671-0.688). The CHA2DS2-VASc C statistic in the 3 groups were comparable. With addition of race/ethnicity, the categorical net reclassification improvement, continuous net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement were -0.045 (95% CI, -0.067 to -0.025), 0.045 (95% CI, 0.025-0.068), and 0.016 (95% CI, 0.014-0.018). Conclusions- The predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc for IS or TIA in atrial fibrillation is comparable among whites, blacks, and Hispanics; hence, it can be used in the latter 2 groups. Addition of race/ethnicity to the CHA2DS2-VASc does not improve its predictive ability.

Project description:BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia, and its most severe and dreaded complication is stroke. The CHA2DS2-VASc score is currently recommended for stroke risk assessment in AF. We aimed to explore the relationship between atrial FDG uptake and stroke and whether atrial FDG uptake could provide incremental value above the CHA2DS2-VAS score to predict stroke in AF by 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT).Materials and methodsFrom September 2017 to December 2020, we retrospectively enrolled 230 patients (115 with AF and 115 without AF as the non-AF group, matched for the date of PET/CT examination and the basic characteristics of the patient) who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT due to tumor screening or preoperative staging after prolonged fasting and followed up for at least 12 months from the date of PET/CT examination; the endpoint event is the occurrence of stroke. We visually and quantitatively analyzed 18F-FDG uptake in the right and left atria (RA/LA), right and left atrial appendage (RAA/LAA), right and left ventricle (RV/LV), and collected clinical features. In addition, according to the endpoint event (stroke), the enrolled population was divided into the stroke group and non-stroke group, and relevant clinical features and atrial FDG uptake indicators of the two groups were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyzes were used to analyze the risk factors of stroke events. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve of atrial FDG uptake was drawn, and the log-rank method was used to compare the differences in the survival curves of the two groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to examine the discriminatory power of atrial FDG uptake in predicting stroke and determine whether the addition of atrial FDG uptake improves predictive value beyond the CHA2DS2-VASc score for stroke.ResultsIn the AF group, more than half of patients had RA FDG uptake and one-fifth had LA FDG uptake, while one patient had RA FDG uptake and two patients had LA FDG uptake in the non-AF group. In quantitative analysis, the maximum standardized uptake value (SUV max ) of the RA and LA in the AF group was significantly higher than that of the non-AF group (all P < 0.001). We followed up the patients for 28 ± 10 months, and finally, 31 patients had stroke. In the stroke group, atrial fibrillation, RA SUV max , RAA SUV max , LAA SUV max , age ≥ 75 years, and left atrial dilation were significantly higher than those of the non-stroke group (all P < 0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that high RA SUV max (RA SUV max ≥ 2.62) was an independent risk factor for stroke (HR = 4.264, 95% CI 1.368-13.293, P = 0.012). By using the log-rank test, patients with high RA SUV max had a significantly higher incidence of stroke compared with patients with low RA SUV max (P < 0.001). Addition of high RA SUV max to the CHA2DS2-VASc score could predict stroke more effectively, with a larger AUC 0.790 (P < 0.001).ConclusionThis study found a significant correlation between atrial FDG uptake and AF, especially in RA. Meanwhile, RA FDG uptake is an independent risk factor for stroke, and patients with high RA SUV max have a significantly higher risk of stroke. Moreover, RA FDG uptake improves prediction of stroke above the CHA2DS2-VASc score in patients with AF.

Project description:BackgroundContemporary data have shown a decrease in the ischaemic stroke risk associated with female sex in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We evaluated temporal trends in the predictive value of a non-sex CHA2DS2-VASc risk score (ie. CHA2DS2-VA).MethodsThe FinACAF study covers all patients with incident AF between 2007 and 2018 in Finland from all levels of care. The CHA2DS2-VA score was compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc using continuous and category-based net reclassification indices (NRIs), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), c-statistics and decision curve analyses.FindingsWe identified 144,879 anticoagulant naïve patients with new-onset AF between 2007 and 2018 (49.9% women; mean age 72.1 years), of whom 3936 (2.7%) experienced ischaemic stroke during one-year follow-up. Based on both continuous and category-based NRIs, the CHA2DS2-VA score was inferior to the CHA2DS2-VASc in the early years (-0.333 (95% CI -0.411 to -0.261) and -0.118 (95% CI -0.137 to -0.099), respectively). However, the differences attenuated over time, and by the end of the study period, the continuous NRI became non-significant (-0.093 (95% CI -0.165 to 0.032)), whereas the category-based NRI reversed in favor of the CHA2DS2-VA (0.070 (95% CI 0.048-0.087)). The IDI was non-significant in early years (0.0009 (95% CI -0.0024 to 0.0037)), but over time became statistically significant in favor of the CHA2DS2-VA score (0.0022 (95% CI 0.0001-0.0044)). The Cox models fitted with the CHA2DS2-VA and the CHA2DS2-VASc scores exhibited comparable discriminative capability in the beginning of the study (p-value 0.63), but over time marginal differences in favor of the CHA2DS2-VA score emerged (p-value 0.0002).InterpretationIn 2007-2008 (when females had higher AF-related stroke risks than males), the CHA2DS2-VASc score outperformed the CHA2DS2-VA score, but the initial differences between the scores attenuated over time. By the end of the study period in 2017-2018 (with limited/no sex differences in AF-related stroke), there was marginal superiority for the CHA2DS2-VA score.FundingThis work was supported by the Aarne Koskelo Foundation, The Finnish Foundation for Cardiovascular Research, The Finnish State Research funding, and Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District research fund.

Dataset Information

Refining Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation-Related Stroke Using the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc Score.

Publications

Refining Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation-Related Stroke Using the P<sub>2</sub>-CHA<sub>2</sub>DS<sub>2</sub>-VASc Score.

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