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Adjustment for time-invariant and time-varying confounders in 'unexplained residuals' models for longitudinal data within a causal framework and associated challenges.

ABSTRACT: 'Unexplained residuals' models have been used within lifecourse epidemiology to model an exposure measured longitudinally at several time points in relation to a distal outcome. It has been claimed that these models have several advantages, including: the ability to estimate multiple total causal effects in a single model, and additional insight into the effect on the outcome of greater-than-expected increases in the exposure compared to traditional regression methods. We evaluate these properties and prove mathematically how adjustment for confounding variables must be made within this modelling framework. Importantly, we explicitly place unexplained residual models in a causal framework using directed acyclic graphs. This allows for theoretical justification of appropriate confounder adjustment and provides a framework for extending our results to more complex scenarios than those examined in this paper. We also discuss several interpretational issues relating to unexplained residual models within a causal framework. We argue that unexplained residual models offer no additional insights compared to traditional regression methods, and, in fact, are more challenging to implement; moreover, they artificially reduce estimated standard errors. Consequently, we conclude that unexplained residual models, if used, must be implemented with great care.

SUBMITTER: Arnold KF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6484949 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundBiochemical networks are often described through static or time-averaged measurements of the component macromolecules. Temporal variation in these components plays an important role in both describing the dynamical nature of the network as well as providing insights into causal mechanisms. Few methods exist, specifically for systems with many variables, for analyzing time series data to identify distinct temporal regimes and the corresponding time-varying causal networks and mechanisms.ResultsIn this study, we use well-constructed temporal transcriptional measurements in a mammalian cell during a cell cycle, to identify dynamical networks and mechanisms describing the cell cycle. The methods we have used and developed in part deal with Granger causality, Vector Autoregression, Estimation Stability with Cross Validation and a nonparametric change point detection algorithm that enable estimating temporally evolving directed networks that provide a comprehensive picture of the crosstalk among different molecular components. We applied our approach to RNA-seq time-course data spanning nearly two cell cycles from Mouse Embryonic Fibroblast (MEF) primary cells. The change-point detection algorithm is able to extract precise information on the duration and timing of cell cycle phases. Using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and Estimation Stability with Cross Validation (ES-CV), we were able to, without any prior biological knowledge, extract information on the phase-specific causal interaction of cell cycle genes, as well as temporal interdependencies of biological mechanisms through a complete cell cycle.ConclusionsThe temporal dependence of cellular components we provide in our model goes beyond what is known in the literature. Furthermore, our inference of dynamic interplay of multiple intracellular mechanisms and their temporal dependence on one another can be used to predict time-varying cellular responses, and provide insight on the design of precise experiments for modulating the regulation of the cell cycle.

Project description:Temporal analysis of genome-wide data can provide insights into the underlying mechanism of the biological processes in two ways. First, grouping the temporal data provides a richer, more robust representation of the underlying processes that are co-regulated. The net result is a significant dimensional reduction of the genome-wide array data into a smaller set of vocabularies for bioinformatics analysis. Second, the computed set of time-course vocabularies can be interrogated for a potential causal network that can shed light on the underlying interactions. The method is coupled with an experiment for investigating responses to high doses of ionizing radiation with and without a small priming dose. From a computational perspective, inference of a causal network can rapidly become computationally intractable with the increasing number of variables. Additionally, from a bioinformatics perspective, larger networks always hinder interpretation. Therefore, our method focuses on inferring the simplest network that is computationally tractable and interpretable. The method first reduces the number of temporal variables through consensus clustering to reveal a small set of temporal templates. It then enforces simplicity in the network configuration through the sparsity constraint, which is further regularized by requiring continuity between consecutive time points. We present intermediate results for each computational step, and apply our method to a time-course transcriptome dataset for a cell line receiving a challenge dose of ionizing radiation with and without a prior priming dose. Our analyses indicate that (i) the priming dose increases the diversity of the computed templates (e.g., diversity of transcriptome signatures); thus, increasing the network complexity; (ii) as a result of the priming dose, there are a number of unique templates with delayed and oscillatory profiles; and (iii) radiation-induced stress responses are enriched through pathway and subnetwork studies.

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Adjustment for time-invariant and time-varying confounders in 'unexplained residuals' models for longitudinal data within a causal framework and associated challenges.

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