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Prediction early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma eligible for curative ablation using a Radiomics nomogram.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Predicting early recurrence (ER) after radical therapy for HCC patients is critical for the decision of subsequent follow-up and treatment. Radiomic features derived from the medical imaging show great potential to predict prognosis. Here we aim to develop and validate a radiomics nomogram that could predict ER after curative ablation. METHODS:Total 184 HCC patients treated from August 2007 to August 2014 were included in the study and were divided into the training (n?=?129) and validation(n?=?55) cohorts randomly. The endpoint was recurrence free survival (RFS). A set of 647 radiomics features were extracted from the 3 phases contrast enhanced computed tomography (CECT) images. The minimum redundancy maximum relevance algorithm (MRMRA) was used for feature selection. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression model was used to build a radiomics signature. Recurrence prediction models were built using clinicopathological factors and radiomics signature, and a prognostic nomogram was developed and validated by calibration. RESULTS:Among the four radiomics models, the portal venous phase model obtained the best performance in the validation subgroup (C-index?=?0.736 (95%CI:0.726-0.856)). When adding the clinicopathological factors to the models, the portal venous phase combined model also yielded the best predictive performance for training (C-index?=?0.792(95%CI:0.727-0.857) and validation (C-index?=?0.755(95%CI:0.651-0.860) subgroup. The combined model indicated a more distinct improvement of predictive power than the simple clinical model (ANOVA, P?

SUBMITTER: Yuan C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6485136 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma eligible for curative ablation using a Radiomics nomogram.

Yuan Chunwang C Wang Zhenchang Z Gu Dongsheng D Tian Jie J Zhao Peng P Wei Jingwei J Yang Xiaozhen X Hao Xiaohan X Dong Di D He Ning N Sun Yu Y Gao Wenfeng W Feng Jiliang J

Cancer imaging : the official publication of the International Cancer Imaging Society 20190426 1

<h4>Background</h4>Predicting early recurrence (ER) after radical therapy for HCC patients is critical for the decision of subsequent follow-up and treatment. Radiomic features derived from the medical imaging show great potential to predict prognosis. Here we aim to develop and validate a radiomics nomogram that could predict ER after curative ablation.<h4>Methods</h4>Total 184 HCC patients treated from August 2007 to August 2014 were included in the study and were divided into the training (n ...[more]

PMID: 31027510

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:To construct a prediction model based on peritumoral radiomics signatures from CT images and investigate its efficiency in predicting early recurrence (ER) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS:In total, 156 patients with primary HCC were randomly divided into the training cohort (109 patients) and the validation cohort (47 patients). From the pretreatment CT images, we extracted 3-phase two-dimensional images from the largest cross-sectional area of the tumor. A region of interest (ROI) was manually delineated around the lesion for tumoral radiomics (T-RO) feature extraction, and another ROI was outlined with an additional 2 cm peritumoral area for peritumoral radiomics (PT-RO) feature extraction. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model was applied for feature selection and model construction. The T-RO and PT-RO models were constructed. In the validation cohort, the prediction efficiencies of the two models and peritumoral enhancement (PT-E) were evaluated qualitatively by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves and decision curves and quantitatively by area under the curve (AUC), the category-free net reclassification index (cfNRI) and integrated discrimination improvement values (IDI). RESULTS:By comparing AUC values, the prediction accuracy in the validation cohort was good for the PT-RO model (0.80 vs. 0.79, P = 0.47) but poor for the T-RO model (0.82 vs. 0.62, P < 0.01), which was significantly overfitted. In the validation cohort, the ROC curves, calibration curves and decision curves indicated that the PT-RO model had better calibration efficiency and provided greater clinical benefits. CfNRI indicated that the PT-RO model correctly reclassified 47% of ER patients and 32% of non-ER patients compared to the T-RO model (P < 0.01); additionally, the PT-RO model correctly reclassified 24% of ER patients and 41% of non-ER patients compared to PT-E (P = 0.02). IDI indicated that the PT-RO model could improve prediction accuracy by 0.22 (P < 0.01) compared to the T-RO model and by 0.20 (P = 0.01) compared to PT-E. CONCLUSION:The CT-based PT-RO model can effectively predict the ER of HCC and is more efficient than the T-RO model and the conventional imaging feature PT-E.

Project description:BackgroundRadiomics has emerged as a new approach that can help identify imaging information associated with tumor pathophysiology. We developed and validated a radiomics nomogram for preoperative prediction of microvascular invasion (MVI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).MethodsTwo hundred and eight patients with pathologically confirmed HCC (training cohort: n = 146; validation cohort: n = 62) who underwent preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) imaging were included. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression was applied to select features and construct signatures derived from MR images. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the significant clinicoradiological variables and radiomics signatures associated with MVI, which were then incorporated into the predictive nomogram. The performance of the radiomics nomogram was evaluated by its calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility.ResultsHigher α-fetoprotein level (p = 0.046), nonsmooth tumor margin (p = 0.003), arterial peritumoral enhancement (p < 0.001), and the radiomics signatures of hepatobiliary phase (HBP) T1-weighted images (p < 0.001) and HBP T1 maps (p < 0.001) were independent risk factors of MVI. The predictive model that incorporated the clinicoradiological factors and the radiomic features derived from HBP images outperformed the combination of clinicoradiological factors in the training cohort (area under the curves [AUCs] 0.943 vs. 0.850; p = 0.002), though the validation did not have a statistical significance (AUCs 0.861 vs. 0.759; p = 0.111). The nomogram based on the model exhibited C-index of 0.936 (95% CI 0.895-0.976) and 0.864 (95% CI 0.761-0.967) in the training and validation cohort, fitting well in calibration curves (p > 0.05). Decision curve analysis further confirmed the clinical usefulness of the nomogram.ConclusionsThe nomogram incorporating clinicoradiological risk factors and radiomic features derived from HBP images achieved satisfactory preoperative prediction of the individualized risk of MVI in patients with HCC.

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Prediction early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma eligible for curative ablation using a Radiomics nomogram.

Publications

Prediction early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma eligible for curative ablation using a Radiomics nomogram.

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