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Computational modeling of pancreatic cancer patients receiving FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine-based therapies identifies optimum intervention strategies.

ABSTRACT: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) exhibits a variety of phenotypes with regard to disease progression and treatment response. This variability complicates clinical decision-making despite the improvement of survival due to the recent introduction of FOLFIRINOX (FFX) and nab-paclitaxel. Questions remain as to the timing and sequence of therapies and the role of radiotherapy for unresectable PDAC. Here we developed a computational analysis platform to investigate the dynamics of growth, metastasis and treatment response to FFX, gemcitabine (GEM), and GEM+nab-paclitaxel. Our approach was informed using data of 1,089 patients treated at the Massachusetts General Hospital and validated using an independent cohort from Osaka Medical College. Our framework establishes a logistic growth pattern of PDAC and defines the Local Advancement Index (LAI), which determines the eventual primary tumor size and predicts the number of metastases. We found that a smaller LAI leads to a larger metastatic burden. Furthermore, our analyses ascertain that i) radiotherapy after induction chemotherapy improves survival in cases receiving induction FFX or with larger LAI, ii) neoadjuvant chemotherapy improves survival in cases with resectable PDAC, and iii) temporary cessations of chemotherapies do not impact overall survival, which supports the feasibility of treatment holidays for patients with FFX-associated adverse effects. Our findings inform clinical decision-making for PDAC patients and allow for the rational design of clinical strategies using FFX, GEM, GEM+nab-paclitaxel, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and radiation.

SUBMITTER: Yamamoto KN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6485645 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Computational modeling of pancreatic cancer patients receiving FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine-based therapies identifies optimum intervention strategies.

Yamamoto Kimiyo N KN Nakamura Akira A Liu Lin L LL Stein Shayna S Tramontano Angela C AC Kartoun Uri U Shimizu Tetsunosuke T Inoue Yoshihiro Y Asakuma Mitsuhiro M Haeno Hiroshi H Kong Chung Yin CY Uchiyama Kazuhisa K Gonen Mithat M Hur Chin C Michor Franziska F

PloS one 20190426 4

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) exhibits a variety of phenotypes with regard to disease progression and treatment response. This variability complicates clinical decision-making despite the improvement of survival due to the recent introduction of FOLFIRINOX (FFX) and nab-paclitaxel. Questions remain as to the timing and sequence of therapies and the role of radiotherapy for unresectable PDAC. Here we developed a computational analysis platform to investigate the dynamics of growth, meta ...[more]

PMID: 31026288

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Project description:Although gemcitabine monotherapy is the standard treatment for advanced pancreatic cancer, patient outcome varies significantly, and a considerable number do not benefit adequately. We therefore searched for new biomarkers predictive of overall patient survival. Using LC-MS, we compared the base-line plasma proteome between 29 representative patients with advanced pancreatic cancer who died within 100 days and 31 patients who survived for more than 400 days after receiving at least two cycles of the same gemcitabine monotherapy. Identified biomarker candidates were then challenged in a larger cohort of 304 patients treated with the same protocol using reverse-phase protein microarray. Among a total of 45,277 peptide peaks, we identified 637 peaks whose intensities differed significantly between the two groups (p < 0.001, Welch's t test). Two MS peaks with the highest statistical significance (p = 2.6 x 10(-4) and p = 5.0 x 10(-4)) were revealed to be derived from alpha(1)-antitrypsin and alpha(1)-antichymotrypsin, respectively. The levels of alpha(1)-antitrypsin (p = 8.9 x 10(-8)) and alpha(1)-antichymotrypsin (p = 0.001) were significantly correlated with the overall survival of the 304 patients. We selected alpha(1)-antitrypsin (p = 0.0001), leukocyte count (p = 0.066), alkaline phosphatase (p = 8.3 x 10(-8)), and performance status (p = 0.003) using multivariate Cox regression analysis and constructed a scoring system (nomogram) that was able to identify a group of high risk patients having a short median survival time of 150 days (95% confidence interval, 123-187 days; p = 2.0 x 10(-15), log rank test). The accuracy of this model for prognostication was internally validated and showed good calibration and discrimination with a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.672. In conclusion, an increased level of alpha(1)-antitrypsin is a biomarker that predicts short overall survival of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer receiving gemcitabine monotherapy. Although an external validation study will be necessary, the current model may be useful for identifying patients unsuitable for the standardized therapy.

Dataset Information

Computational modeling of pancreatic cancer patients receiving FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine-based therapies identifies optimum intervention strategies.

Publications

Computational modeling of pancreatic cancer patients receiving FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine-based therapies identifies optimum intervention strategies.

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