Complications after discharge predict readmission after colorectal surgery.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Albright J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6488217 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Complications after discharge predict readmission after colorectal surgery.
Albright Jeremy J Batool Farwa F Cleary Robert K RK Mullard Andrew J AJ Kreske Edward E Ferraro Jane J Regenbogen Scott E SE
Surgical endoscopy 20180827 4
<h4>Background</h4>Health care providers, hospitals, and pay-for-performance programs are focused on strategies identifying patients at highest risk for re-admission after colorectal surgery. The study objective was to determine characteristics most associated with re-admission after elective colorectal surgery using a conceptual framework approach.<h4>Methods</h4>This is an observational study of Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative clinical registry data for 8962 colorectal surgery cases be ...[more]
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Risk-prediction indices are one category of the many tools implemented to guide efforts to decrease readmissions. However, using fied models to predict a complex process can prove challenging. In addition, no risk-prediction index has been developed for patients undergoing colorectal surgery. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of a widely utilized simplified index developed at the hospital level - LACE (length of stay, acute admission, Charlson comorbidity index score, and emergency department visits) and developed and evaluated a novel index in predicting readmissions in this patient population. METHODS:Using a retrospective split-sample cohort, patients discharged after colorectal surgery were identified within the inpatient databases of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project for the states of New York, California, and Florida (2006-2014). The primary outcome was death or readmission within 30 days after discharge. Multivariable logistic regression models incorporated patient comorbidities, postoperative complications, and hospitalization details, and were evaluated using the C statistic. RESULTS:A total of 440,742 patients met eligibility criteria. The rate of death or readmission within 30 days after discharge was 14.0% (n = 61,757). When applied to surgical patients, the LACE index demonstrated a poor model fit (C = 0.631). The model fit improved significantly-but remained poor (C = 0.654; P < .001)-with the addition of the following variables, which are known to be associated with readmission after colorectal surgery: age, indication for surgery, and creation of a new ostomy. A novel, simplified model also yielded a poor model fit (C = 0.660). CONCLUSION:Postdischarge death or readmission after colorectal surgery is not accurately modeled using existing, modified, or novel simplified risk prediction models. Payers and providers must ensure that quality improvement efforts applying simplified models to complex processes, such as readmissions following colorectal surgery, may not be appropriate, and that models reflect the relevant patient population.
| S-EPMC6502644 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundReadmission after colorectal surgery is common and often implies complications for patients and costs for hospitals. Previous works have created predictive models using logistic regression for this outcome but have shown limited accuracy. Machine learning has shown promise in improving predictions by identifying non-linear patterns in data. We sought to create a more accurate predictive model for readmission after colorectal surgery using machine learning.MethodsPatients who underwent colorectal surgery were identified in the National Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database including years 2012-2019 and split into training, validation, and test sets. The primary outcome was readmission within 30 days of surgery. Three types of machine learning models were created, including random forest (RF), gradient boosting (XGB), and neural network (NN). A logistic regression (LR) model was also created for comparison. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).ResultsThe dataset included 213,827 patients after application of exclusion criteria. A total of 23,083 (10.8%) of patients experienced readmission. NN obtained an AUROC of 0.751 (95% CI 0.743-0.759), compared with 0.684 (95% CI 0.676-0.693) for LR. RF and XGB performed similarly with AUROCs of 0.749 (95% CI 0.741-0.757) and 0.745 (95% CI 0.737-0.753) respectively. Ileus, index admission length of stay, organ-space surgical site infection present at time of surgery, and ostomy placement were identified as the most contributory variables.ConclusionsMachine learning approaches outperformed traditional statistical methods in the prediction of readmission after colorectal surgery. After external validation, this improved prediction model could be used to target interventions to reduce readmission rate.
| S-EPMC10081888 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimPostoperative ileus (POI) is common after surgery. Animal studies indicate that the POI mechanism involves an inflammatory response, which is also activated during postoperative complications. This study aimed to determine whether inflammatory biomarkers might facilitate an early detection of prolonged POI (PPOI) or infectious complications.MethodsForty-seven adult patients who underwent oncological colorectal surgery were included. They filled out a perioperative diary to report their gastrointestinal symptoms. Blood samples were collected preoperatively, and on postoperative day (POD) 1 and 3. Levels of leucocytes, C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin (IL)-6, TNF-α, and IL-1β were analyzed.ResultsPatients with PPOI had significantly longer stay in hospital than patients without (13.6 ± 10.5 versus 7.4 ± 3.2 days, p < 0.001); they also had higher levels of IL-6 ratios, leucocytes, and CRP levels, but did not reach significance. Higher levels of postoperative IL-6 and CRP levels (p < 0.05, resp.) were found in patients with infectious complications. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis found better diagnostic values of IL-6 ratio on both POD 1 and 3 than that of CRP (POD 1: ROC 0.825, p < 0.001).ConclusionBlood levels of inflammatory cytokines cannot predict PPOI after colorectal surgery. Instead, postoperative IL-6 changes may predict the infectious complications with a better diagnostic value than the current leukocytes or CRP tests.
| S-EPMC5859856 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance:Promoting patient mobility during hospitalization is associated with improved outcomes and reduced risk of hospitalization-associated functional decline. Therefore, accurate measurement of mobility with high-information content data may be key to improved risk prediction models, identification of at-risk patients, and the development of interventions to improve outcomes. Remote monitoring enables measurement of multiple ambulation metrics incorporating both distance and speed. Objective:To evaluate novel ambulation metrics in predicting 30-day readmission rates, discharge location, and length of stay using a real-time location system to continuously monitor the voluntary ambulations of postoperative cardiac surgery patients. Design, Setting, and Participants:This prognostic cohort study of the mobility of 100 patients after cardiac surgery in a progressive care unit at Johns Hopkins Hospital was performed using a real-time location system. Enrollment occurred between August 29, 2016, and April 4, 2018. Data analysis was performed from June 2018 to December 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures:Outcome measures included 30-day readmission, discharge location, and length of stay. Digital records of all voluntary ambulations were created where each ambulation consisted of multiple segments defined by distance and speed. Ambulation profiles consisted of 19 parameters derived from the digital ambulation records. Results:A total of 100 patients (81 men [81%]; mean [SD] age, 63.1 [11.6] years) were evaluated. Distance and speed were recorded for more than 14 000 segments in 840 voluntary ambulations, corresponding to a total of 127.8 km (79.4 miles) using a real-time location system. Patient ambulation profiles were predictive of 30-day readmission (sensitivity, 86.7%; specificity, 88.2%; C statistic, 0.925 [95% CI, 0.836-1.000]), discharge to acute rehabilitation (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 86.4%; C statistic, 0.930 [95% CI, 0.855-1.000]), and length of stay (correlation coefficient, 0.927). Conclusions and Relevance:Remote monitoring provides a high-information content description of mobility, incorporating elements of step count (ambulation distance and related parameters), gait speed (ambulation speed and related parameters), frequency of ambulation, and changes in parameters on successive ambulations. Ambulation profiles incorporating multiple aspects of mobility enables accurate prediction of clinically relevant outcomes.
| S-EPMC7078761 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Despite national emphasis on care coordination, little is known about how fragmentation affects cancer surgery outcomes. Our study examines a specific form of fragmentation in post-discharge care-readmission to a hospital different from the location of the operation-and evaluates its causes and consequences among patients readmitted after major cancer surgery.We used the State Inpatient Database of California (2004 to 2011) to identify patients who had major cancer surgery and their subsequent readmissions. Logistic models were used to examine correlates of non-index readmissions and to assess associations between location of readmission and outcomes, measured by in-hospital mortality and repeated readmission.Of 9,233 readmissions within 30 days of discharge after major cancer surgery, 20.0% occurred in non-index hospitals. Non-index readmissions were associated with emergency readmission (odds ratio [OR] = 2.63; 95% CI, 2.26-3.06), rural residence (OR = 1.81; 95% CI, 1.61-2.04), and extensive procedures (eg hepatectomy vs proctectomy; OR = 2.77; CI, 2.08-3.70). Mortality was higher during non-index readmissions than index readmissions independent of patient, procedure, and hospital factors (OR = 1.31; 95% CI, 1.03-1.66), but was mitigated by adjusting for conditions present at readmission (OR = 1.24; 95% CI, 0.98-1.58). Non-index readmission predicted higher odds of repeated readmission within 60 days of discharge from the first readmission (OR = 1.16; 95% CI, 1.02-1.32), independent of all covariates.Non-index readmissions constitute a substantial proportion of all readmissions after major cancer surgery. They are associated with more repeated readmissions and can be caused by severe surgical complications and increased travel burden. Overcoming disadvantages of non-index readmissions represents an opportunity to improve outcomes for patients having major cancer surgery.
| S-EPMC5244824 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Restrictive transfusion strategies supported by large randomized trials are resulting in decreased blood utilization in cardiac surgery. What remains to be determined, however, is the impact of lower discharge hemoglobin (Hb) levels on readmission rates. We assessed patients with higher versus lower Hb levels on discharge to compare 30-day readmission rates after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS:We retrospectively evaluated 1552 patients undergoing isolated CABG at our institution from January 2013 to May 2016. We evaluated 2 Hb cohorts: "high" (above) and "low" (below) the mean discharge Hb level of 9.4 g/dL, comparing patient characteristics, blood utilization, and clinical outcomes including 30-day readmission rates. We further evaluated the effects of the lowest (<8 g/dL) discharge Hb levels on 30-day readmission rates by dividing the patients into 4 anemia cohorts based on discharge Hb levels: "no anemia" (>12 g/dL), "mild anemia" (10-11.9 g/dL), "moderate anemia" (8-9.9 g/dL), and "severe anemia" (<8 g/dL). Risk adjustment accounted for age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, preoperative comorbidities, revision sternotomy, and patient blood management program implementation. RESULTS:The "high" and "low" groups had similar patient characteristics except for Hb levels (mean discharge Hb was 10.4 ± 0.9 vs 8.5 ± 0.6 g/dL, respectively). Notably, no evidence for a difference in 30-day readmission rates was noted between the "high" (76/746; 10.2%) and "low" (97/806; 12.0%) (P = .25) Hb cohorts. The 4 anemia cohorts had differences in age, revision sternotomy incidence, Hb levels, certain patient comorbidities, and time to readmission. On multivariable analysis, the risk-adjusted odds of readmission in the "low" Hb cohort (odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-1.61; P = .36) was not significant compared to the "high" Hb cohort. Compared to patients with discharge Hb ?8 g/dL, patients with Hb <8 g/dL had a higher incidence of readmission (22/129; 17.1% vs 151/1423; 10.6%; P = .036). On multivariable analysis, Hb <8 g/dL on discharge was predictive of readmission (odds ratio, 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.88; P = .03). The most common reason for readmission was volume overload, followed by infection and arrhythmias. CONCLUSIONS:A discharge Hb level below the institution mean for CABG patients does not provide evidence for an association with an increased 30-day readmission rate. In the small number of patients discharged with Hb <8 g/dL, there is a suggestion of increased risk for readmission and larger more controlled studies are needed to verify or refute this finding.
| S-EPMC6533067 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services have implemented penalties for hospitals with above-average readmission rates under the Hospital Readmissions Reductions Program. These changes will likely be extended to affect postoperative readmissions in the future.To identify variables that place patients at risk for readmission, develop a predictive nomogram, and validate this nomogram.Retrospective review and prospective validation of a predictive nomogram. A predictive nomogram was developed with the linear predictor method using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database paired with institutional billing data for patients who underwent nonemergent inpatient general surgery procedures. The nomogram was developed from August 1, 2006, through December 31, 2011, in 2799 patients and prospectively validated from November 1, 2013, through December 19, 2013, in 255 patients at a single academic institution. Area under the curve and positive and negative predictive values were calculated.The outcome of interest was readmission within 30 days of discharge following an index hospitalization for a surgical procedure.Bleeding disorder (odds ratio, 2.549; 95% CI, 1.464-4.440), long operative time (odds ratio, 1.601; 95% CI, 1.186-2.160), in-hospital complications (odds ratio, 16.273; 95% CI, 12.028-22.016), dependent functional status, and the need for a higher level of care at discharge (odds ratio, 1.937; 95% CI, 1.176-3.190) were independently associated with readmission. The nomogram accurately predicted readmission (C statistic?=?0.756) in a prospective evaluation. The negative predictive value was 97.9% in the prospective validation, while the positive predictive value was 11.1%.Development of an online calculator using this predictive model will allow us to identify patients who are at high risk for readmission at the time of discharge. Patients with increased risk may benefit from more intensive postoperative follow-up in the outpatient setting.
| S-EPMC4824195 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesPreoperative anaemia is common in patients with colorectal cancer and increasingly optimised prior to surgery. Comparably little attention is given to the prevalence and consequences of postoperative anaemia. We aimed to investigate the frequency and short- or long-term impact of anaemia at discharge following colorectal cancer resection.MethodsA dedicated, prospectively populated database of elective laparoscopic colorectal cancer procedures undertaken with curative intent within a fully implemented ERAS protocol was utilised. The primary endpoint was anaemia at time of discharge (haemoglobin (Hb) < 120 g/L for women and < 135 g/L for men). Patient demographics, tumour characteristics, operative details and postoperative outcomes were captured. Median follow-up was 61 months with overall survival calculated with the Kaplan-Meier log rank method and Cox proportional hazard regression based on anaemia at time of hospital discharge.ResultsA total of 532 patients with median 61-month follow-up were included. 46.4% were anaemic preoperatively (cohort mean Hb 129.4 g/L ± 18.7). Median surgical blood loss was 100 mL (IQR 0-200 mL). Upon discharge, most patients were anaemic (76.6%, Hb 116.3 g/L ± 14, mean 19 g/L ± 11 below lower limit of normal, p < 0.001). 16.7% experienced postoperative complications which were associated with lower discharge Hb (112 g/L ± 12 vs. 117 g/L ± 14, p = 0.001). Patients discharged anaemic had longer hospital stays (7 [5-11] vs. 6 [5-8], p = 0.037). Anaemia at discharge was independently associated with reduced overall survival (82% vs. 70%, p = 0.018; HR 1.6 (95% CI 1.04-2.5), p = 0.034).ConclusionAnaemia at time of discharge following elective laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery and ERAS care is common with associated negative impacts upon short-term clinical outcomes and long-term overall survival.
| S-EPMC7415032 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundUnplanned readmissions after colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery are common, expensive, and result from failure to progress in postoperative recovery. The context of their preventability and extent of predictability remains undefined. This study aimed to define the 30-day unplanned readmission (UR) rate after CRC surgery, identify risk factors, and develop a prediction model with external validation.MethodsConsecutive patients who underwent CRC surgery between 2012 and 2017 at Christchurch Hospital were retrospectively identified. The primary outcome was UR within 30 days after index discharge. Statistically significant risk factors were identified and incorporated into a predictive model. The model was then externally evaluated on a prospectively recruited dataset from 2018 to 2019.ResultsOf the 701 patients identified, 15.1% were readmitted within 30 days of discharge. Stoma formation (OR 2.45, 95% CI 1.59-3.81), any postoperative complications (PoCs) (OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.48-3.52), high-grade PoCs (OR 2.52, 95% CI 1.18-5.11), and rectal cancer (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.48-3.52) were statistically significant risk factors for UR. A clinical prediction model comprised of rectal cancer and high-grade PoCs predicted UR with an AUC of 0.64 and 0.62 on internal and external validation, respectively.ConclusionsURs after CRC surgery are predictable and occur within 2 weeks of discharge. They are driven by PoCs, most of which are of low severity and develop after discharge. Atleast 16% of readmissions are preventable by management in an outpatient setting with appropriate surgical expertise. Targeted outpatient follow-up within two weeks of discharge is therefore the most effective transitional-care strategy for prevention.
| S-EPMC10309978 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Colorectal cancer is a clinical condition whose treatment often involves intestinal resection. Such treatment frequently results in two major gastrointestinal complications after surgery: anastomotic leakage and prolonged ileus. Anastomotic leakage is a serious complication which, more often than not, is diagnosed late; to date, C-reactive protein is the only available diagnostic marker. A monocentric, prospective, open case-control study was performed in patients (n = 117) undergoing colorectal surgery. Intestinal fatty acid binding protein (i-FABP), citrulline, D-lactate, exhaled hydrogen, Escherichia coli genomic DNA, and ischemia modified albumin (IMA) were determined preoperatively, postoperatively, and on the following four consecutive days. Bacterial DNA was not detected in any sample, and i-FABP and D-lactate lacked any distinct potential to detect postoperative bowel complications. Exhaled breath hydrogen content showed unacceptably low sensitivity. However, citrulline turned out to be a specific marker for prolonged ileus on postoperative days 3-4. Using a cut-off value of 20??mol/L, a sensitivity and specificity of ~75% was achieved on postoperative day 4. IMA was found to be an efficient predictor of anastomosis leak by calculating the difference between preoperative and postoperative values. This test had 100% sensitivity and 80% specificity and 100% negative and 20% positive predictive value.
| S-EPMC4693001 | biostudies-literature