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Simplified risk prediction indices do not accurately predict 30-day death or readmission after discharge following colorectal surgery.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Risk-prediction indices are one category of the many tools implemented to guide efforts to decrease readmissions. However, using fied models to predict a complex process can prove challenging. In addition, no risk-prediction index has been developed for patients undergoing colorectal surgery. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of a widely utilized simplified index developed at the hospital level - LACE (length of stay, acute admission, Charlson comorbidity index score, and emergency department visits) and developed and evaluated a novel index in predicting readmissions in this patient population. METHODS:Using a retrospective split-sample cohort, patients discharged after colorectal surgery were identified within the inpatient databases of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project for the states of New York, California, and Florida (2006-2014). The primary outcome was death or readmission within 30 days after discharge. Multivariable logistic regression models incorporated patient comorbidities, postoperative complications, and hospitalization details, and were evaluated using the C statistic. RESULTS:A total of 440,742 patients met eligibility criteria. The rate of death or readmission within 30 days after discharge was 14.0% (n?=?61,757). When applied to surgical patients, the LACE index demonstrated a poor model fit (C?=?0.631). The model fit improved significantly-but remained poor (C?=?0.654; P < .001)-with the addition of the following variables, which are known to be associated with readmission after colorectal surgery: age, indication for surgery, and creation of a new ostomy. A novel, simplified model also yielded a poor model fit (C?=?0.660). CONCLUSION:Postdischarge death or readmission after colorectal surgery is not accurately modeled using existing, modified, or novel simplified risk prediction models. Payers and providers must ensure that quality improvement efforts applying simplified models to complex processes, such as readmissions following colorectal surgery, may not be appropriate, and that models reflect the relevant patient population.

SUBMITTER: Brauer DG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6502644 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Simplified risk prediction indices do not accurately predict 30-day death or readmission after discharge following colorectal surgery.

Brauer David G DG Lyons Sarah A SA Keller Matthew R MR Mutch Matthew G MG Colditz Graham A GA Glasgow Sean C SC

Surgery 20190129 5

<h4>Background</h4>Risk-prediction indices are one category of the many tools implemented to guide efforts to decrease readmissions. However, using fied models to predict a complex process can prove challenging. In addition, no risk-prediction index has been developed for patients undergoing colorectal surgery. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of a widely utilized simplified index developed at the hospital level - LACE (length of stay, acute admission, Charlson comorbidity index score, an ...[more]

PMID: 30709587

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Restrictive transfusion strategies supported by large randomized trials are resulting in decreased blood utilization in cardiac surgery. What remains to be determined, however, is the impact of lower discharge hemoglobin (Hb) levels on readmission rates. We assessed patients with higher versus lower Hb levels on discharge to compare 30-day readmission rates after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS:We retrospectively evaluated 1552 patients undergoing isolated CABG at our institution from January 2013 to May 2016. We evaluated 2 Hb cohorts: "high" (above) and "low" (below) the mean discharge Hb level of 9.4 g/dL, comparing patient characteristics, blood utilization, and clinical outcomes including 30-day readmission rates. We further evaluated the effects of the lowest (<8 g/dL) discharge Hb levels on 30-day readmission rates by dividing the patients into 4 anemia cohorts based on discharge Hb levels: "no anemia" (>12 g/dL), "mild anemia" (10-11.9 g/dL), "moderate anemia" (8-9.9 g/dL), and "severe anemia" (<8 g/dL). Risk adjustment accounted for age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, preoperative comorbidities, revision sternotomy, and patient blood management program implementation. RESULTS:The "high" and "low" groups had similar patient characteristics except for Hb levels (mean discharge Hb was 10.4 ± 0.9 vs 8.5 ± 0.6 g/dL, respectively). Notably, no evidence for a difference in 30-day readmission rates was noted between the "high" (76/746; 10.2%) and "low" (97/806; 12.0%) (P = .25) Hb cohorts. The 4 anemia cohorts had differences in age, revision sternotomy incidence, Hb levels, certain patient comorbidities, and time to readmission. On multivariable analysis, the risk-adjusted odds of readmission in the "low" Hb cohort (odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-1.61; P = .36) was not significant compared to the "high" Hb cohort. Compared to patients with discharge Hb ?8 g/dL, patients with Hb <8 g/dL had a higher incidence of readmission (22/129; 17.1% vs 151/1423; 10.6%; P = .036). On multivariable analysis, Hb <8 g/dL on discharge was predictive of readmission (odds ratio, 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.88; P = .03). The most common reason for readmission was volume overload, followed by infection and arrhythmias. CONCLUSIONS:A discharge Hb level below the institution mean for CABG patients does not provide evidence for an association with an increased 30-day readmission rate. In the small number of patients discharged with Hb <8 g/dL, there is a suggestion of increased risk for readmission and larger more controlled studies are needed to verify or refute this finding.

Project description:BackgroundPost-hospital discharge follow-up appointments are intended to evaluate patients' recovery following a hospitalization, but it is unclear how appointment statuses are associated with readmissions.ObjectiveTo examine the association between post-discharge ambulatory follow-up status, (1) having a scheduled appointment and (2) arriving to said appointment, and 30-day readmission.Design and settingA retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalized at 12 hospitals in an Integrated Delivery Network and their ambulatory appointments in that same network.Patients and main measuresWe included 50,772 patients who had an ambulatory appointment within 18 months of an inpatient admission in 2018. Primary outcome was readmission within 30 days post-discharge.Key resultsThere were 32,108 (63.2%) patients with scheduled follow-up appointments and 18,664 (36.8%) patients with no follow-up; 28,313 (88.2%) patients arrived, 3149 (9.8%) missed, and 646 (2.0%) were readmitted prior to their scheduled appointments. Overall 30-day readmission rate was 7.3%; 6.0% [5.75-6.31] for those who arrived, 8.8% [8.44-9.25] for those without follow-up, and 10.3% [9.28-11.40] for those who missed a scheduled appointment (p < 0.001). After adjusting for covariates, patients who arrived at their appointment in the first week following discharge were significantly less likely to be readmitted than those not having any follow-up scheduled (medical adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.57 [0.47-0.69], p < 0.001; surgical aHR 0.58 [0.44-0.75], p < 0.001) There was an increased risk at weeks 3 and 4 for medical patients who arrived at a follow-up compared to those with no follow-up scheduled (week 3 aHR 1.29 [1.10-1.51], p = 0.001; week 4 aHR 1.46 [1.26-1.70], p < 0.001).ConclusionsThe benefit of patients arriving to their post-discharge appointments compared with patients who missed their follow-up visits or had no follow-up scheduled, is only significant during first week post-discharge, suggesting that coordination within 1 week of discharge is critical in reducing 30-day readmissions.

Project description:We sought to determine if discharge home with home health care (HHC) is an independent predictor of increased readmission after pancreatectomy.We examined 30-day readmissions in patients undergoing pancreatectomy using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Database for California from 2009 to 2011. Readmissions were categorized as severe or nonsevere using the Modified Accordion Severity Grading System. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the association of discharge home with HHC and 30-day readmission using discharge home without HHC as the reference group. Propensity score matching was used as an additional analysis to compare the rate of 30-day readmission between patients discharged home with HHC with patients discharged home without HHC.Of 3,573 patients who underwent pancreatectomy, 752 (21.0%) were readmitted within 30 days of discharge. In a multivariable logistic regression model, discharge home with HHC was an independent predictor of increased 30-day readmission (odds ratio = 1.37; 95% CI, 1.11-1.69; p = 0.004). Using propensity score matching, patients who received HHC had a significantly increased rate of 30-day readmission compared with patients discharged home without HHC (24.3% vs 19.8%; p < 0.001). Patients discharged home with HHC had a significantly increased rate of nonsevere readmission compared with those discharged home without HHC, by univariate comparison (19.2% vs 13.9%; p < 0.001), but not severe readmission (6.4% vs 4.7%; p = 0.08). In multivariable logistic regression models, excluding patients discharged to facilities, discharge home with HHC was an independent predictor of increased nonsevere readmissions (odds ratio = 1.41; 95% CI, 1.11-1.79; p = 0.005), but not severe readmissions (odds ratio = 1.31; 95% CI, 0.88-1.93; p = 0.18).Discharge home with HHC after pancreatectomy is an independent predictor of increased 30-day readmission; specifically, these services are associated with increased nonsevere readmissions, but not severe readmissions.

Project description:ImportanceAlthough early fluid administration has been shown to lower sepsis mortality, positive fluid balance has been associated with adverse outcomes. Little is known about associations in non-intensive care unit settings, with growing concern about readmission from excess fluid accumulation in patients with sepsis.ObjectiveTo evaluate whether positive fluid balance among non-critically ill patients with sepsis was associated with increased readmission risk, including readmission for heart failure.Design, setting, and participantsThis multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2017, among 57 032 non-critically ill adults hospitalized for sepsis at 21 hospitals across Northern California. Kaiser Permanente Northern California is an integrated health care system with a community-based population of more than 4.4 million members. Statistical analysis was performed from January 1 to December 31, 2019.ExposuresIntake and output net fluid balance (I/O) measured daily and cumulatively at discharge (positive vs negative).Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was 30-day readmission. The secondary outcomes were readmission stratified by category and mortality after living discharge.ResultsThe cohort included 57 032 patients who were hospitalized for sepsis (28 779 women [50.5%]; mean [SD] age, 73.7 [15.5] years). Compared with patients with positive I/O (40 940 [71.8%]), those with negative I/O (16 092 [28.2%]) were older, with increased comorbidity, acute illness severity, preexisting heart failure or chronic kidney disease, diuretic use, and decreased fluid administration volume. During 30-day follow-up, 8719 patients (15.3%) were readmitted and 3639 patients (6.4%) died. There was no difference in readmission between patients with positive vs negative I/O (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.95-1.05). No association was detected between readmission and I/O using continuous, splined, and quadratic function transformations. Positive I/O was associated with decreased heart failure-related readmission (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.71-0.91]) and increased 30-day mortality (HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.15-1.31]).Conclusions and relevanceIn this large observational study of non-critically ill patients hospitalized with sepsis, there was no association between positive fluid balance at the time of discharge and readmission. However, these findings may have been limited by variable recording and documentation of fluid intake and output; additional studies are needed to examine the association of fluid status with outcomes in patients with sepsis to reduce readmission risk.

Project description:BackgroundSeveral care transition interventions propose that post-discharge phone calls can reduce adverse events and decrease costly return visits to the hospital. However, given the multi-faceted nature of most care transitions interventions, the true relationship between post-discharge phone calls and readmissions in a real world setting is uncertain.ObjectiveTo determine the effect of receiving a post-discharge telephone call on all-cause 30-day readmission in a general medicine population.DesignRetrospective observational study.ParticipantsPatients discharged home from the Medicine Service at a tertiary care academic medical center between November 2010 and May 2012.InterventionPatients received two telephone call attempts by a nurse within 72 h of discharge. Nurses followed a standard script to address issues associated with readmission.Main outcome and measuresBilling data captured readmissions. We used logistic regression-adjusted patient and clinical covariates as well as a propensity score representing likelihood of being called to determine the association between call receipt and risk for readmission.Key resultsThere were 5,507 eligible patients. In unadjusted analyses, patients who received a call and completed the intervention were significantly less likely to be readmitted compared to those who did not [155 (5.8 %) vs 123 (8.6 %), p < 0.01]. In multivariable models adjusting for socio-demographic and clinical covariates alone, completing a post-discharge telephone call intervention was associated with lower odds for readmission (AOR 0.71; 95 % CI: 0.55-0.91). However, when models adjusted for the likelihood of receiving the phone call using the propensity score, no association between call receipt and readmission was observed (AOR 0.91; 95%CI: 0.69-1.20).ConclusionsEffectiveness of post-discharge phone call programs may be more related to whether patients are able to answer a phone call than to the care delivered by the phone call. Programs would benefit from improving their ability to perform phone outreach while simultaneously improving on the care delivered during the calls.

Dataset Information

Simplified risk prediction indices do not accurately predict 30-day death or readmission after discharge following colorectal surgery.

Publications

Simplified risk prediction indices do not accurately predict 30-day death or readmission after discharge following colorectal surgery.

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