Correction: Temperature extremes and infant mortality in Bangladesh: Hotter months, lower mortality.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Babalola O
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6493745 | biostudies-literature | 2019
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Correction: Temperature extremes and infant mortality in Bangladesh: Hotter months, lower mortality.
Babalola Olufemi O Razzaque Abdur A Bishai David D
PloS one 20190501 5
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0189252.]. ...[more]
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Our study aims to obtain estimates of the size effects of temperature extremes on infant mortality in Bangladesh using monthly time series data. METHODS:Data on temperature, child and infant mortality were obtained for Matlab district of rural Bangladesh for January 1982 to December 2008 encompassing 49,426 infant deaths. To investigate the relationship between mortality and temperature, we adopted a regression with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) errors model of seasonally adjusted temperature and mortality data. The relationship between monthly mean and maximum temperature on infant mortality was tested at 0 and 1 month lags respectively. Furthermore, our analysis was stratified to determine if the results differed by gender (boys versus girls) and by age (neonates (≤ 30 days) versus post neonates (>30days and <153days)). Dickey Fuller tests were performed to test for stationarity, and since the time series were non-stationary, we conducted the regression analysis based on the first differences of mortality and temperature. RESULTS:Hotter months were associated with lower infant mortality in Bangladesh. Each degree Celsius increase in mean monthly temperature reduced monthly mortality by 3.672 (SE 1.544, p<0.05) points. A one degree increase in mean monthly temperature one month prior reduced mortality by 0.767 (SE 0.439, p<0.1) for boys and by -0.0764 (SE 0.366, NS) for girls. Beneficial effects of maximum monthly temperature were on the order of 0.623 to -0.712 and statistically significant for girls and boys respectively. Effect sizes of mean monthly temperature were larger for neonates at 1.126 (SE 0.499, p<0.05) than for post-neonates at 0.880 (SE 0.310, p<0.05) reductions in mortality per degree. CONCLUSION:There is no evidence that infant survival is adversely affected by monthly temperature extremes in Bangladesh. This may reflect a more heightened sensitivity of infants to hypothermia than hyperthermia in this environment.
| S-EPMC5755750 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Although research on the fertility response to childhood mortality is widespread in demographic literature, very few studies focused on the two-way causal relationships between infant mortality and fertility. Understanding the nature of such relationships is important in order to design effective policies to reduce child mortality and improve family planning. In this study, we use dynamic panel data techniques to analyse the causal effects of infant mortality on birth intervals and fertility, as well as the causal effects of birth intervals on mortality in rural Bangladesh, accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality. Simulations based upon the estimated model show whether (and to what extent) mortality and fertility can be reduced by breaking the causal links between short birth intervals and infant mortality. We find a replacement effect of infant mortality on total fertility of about 0.54 children for each infant death in the comparison area with standard health services. Eliminating the replacement effect would lengthen birth intervals and reduce the total number of births, resulting in a fall in mortality by 2.45 children per 1000 live births. These effects are much smaller in the treatment area with extensive health services and information on family planning, where infant mortality is smaller, birth intervals are longer, and total fertility is lower. In both areas, we find evidence of boy preference in family planning.
| S-EPMC5922575 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate the relationship between temperature extremes and daily number of deaths in Jinan, a temperate city in northern China.MethodsData ondaily number of deaths and meteorological variables over the period of 2011-2014 were collected. Cold spells or heat waves were defined as ?3?consecutive days with mean temperature ?5th percentile or ?95th percentile, respectively. We applied a time-series adjusted Poisson regression to assess the effects of extreme temperature on deaths.ResultsThere were 152?150 non-accidental deaths over the study period in Jinan, among which 87?607 people died of cardiovascular disease, 11?690 of respiratory disease, 33?001 of stroke and 6624 of chronic obstrutive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cold spells significantly increased the risk of deaths due to non-accidental mortality (RR 1.08, 95%?CI 1.06 to 1.11), cardiovascular disease (RR 1.06, 95%?CI 1.03 to 1.10), respiratory disease (RR 1.19, 95%?CI 1.11 to 1.27), stroke (RR 1.11, 95%?CI 1.06 to 1.17) and COPD (RR 1.27, 95%?CI 1.16 to 1.38). Heat waves significantly increased the risk of deaths due to non-accidental mortality (RR 1.02, 95%?CI 1.00 to 1.05), cardiovascular disease (RR 1.03, 95%?CI 1.00 to 1.06) and stroke (RR 1.06, 95%?CI 1.00 to 1.13). The elderly were more vulnerable during heat wave exposure; however, vulnerability to cold spell was the same for the whole population regardless of age and gender.ConclusionsBoth cold spells and heat waves have increased the risk of death in Jinan, China.
| S-EPMC5566622 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Worsening temperature extremes are among the most severe impacts of human-induced climate change. These extremes are often defined as rare events that exceed a specific percentile threshold within the distribution of daily maximum temperature. The percentile-based approach is chosen to follow regional and seasonal temperature variations so that extremes can occur globally and in all seasons, and frequently uses a running seasonal window to increase the sample size for the threshold calculation. Here, we show that running seasonal windows as used in many studies in recent years introduce a time-, region-, and dataset-depended bias that can lead to a striking underestimation of the expected extreme frequency. We reveal that this bias arises from artificially mixing the mean seasonal cycle into the extreme threshold and propose a simple solution that essentially eliminates it. We then use the corrected extreme frequency as reference to show that the bias also leads to an overestimation of future heatwave changes by as much as 30% in some regions. Based on these results we stress that running seasonal windows should not be used without correction for estimating extremes and their impacts.
| S-EPMC10948863 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTemperature-mortality relationships have been extensively probed with varying temperature range but with relatively similar patterns and in some instances are being modified by specific mortality groups such as causes of mortality, sex, and age.ObjectiveThis study aimed to determine the risk attributions in the extreme temperatures and also identified the risks associated with the various mortality subgroups.DesignWe used the 2006-2010 daily average meteorological and daily mortality variables from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration and Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office, respectively. Mortality data were divided according to cause (cardiovascular and respiratory), sex, and age (0-14 years, 15-64 years, and >64 years). We performed a two-stage analysis to estimate the extreme temperature effects stratified by the different mortality subgroups to observe the effect modification.ResultsIn the pooled analysis, greater risks were observed in the extreme high temperature (99th temperature percentile; RR (relative risk)=2.48 CI: 1.55-3.98) compared to the extreme low temperature (1st temperature percentile; RR=1.23 CI: 0.88-1.72). Furthermore, effect modification by mortality subgroups was evident, especially higher risks for extreme temperatures with respiratory-related diseases, women, and elderly.ConclusionsBoth sex and age were found to effect modify the risks in extreme temperatures of tropical cities; hence, health-related policies should take these risk variations into consideration to create strategies with respect to the risk population.
| S-EPMC4928071 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEarly and exclusive breastfeeding may reduce neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in low-resource settings. However, prelacteal feeding (PLF), the practice of giving food or liquid before breastfeeding is established, is still a barrier to optimal breastfeeding practices in many South Asian countries. We used a prospective cohort study to assess the association between feeding non-breastmilk food or liquid in the first three days of life and infant size at 3-5 months of age.MethodsThe analysis used data from 3,332 mother-infant pairs enrolled in a randomized controlled trial in northwestern rural Bangladesh conducted from 2018 to 2019. Trained interviewers visited women in their households during pregnancy to collect sociodemographic data. Project staff were notified of a birth by telephone and interviewers visited the home within approximately three days and three months post-partum. At each visit, interviewers collected data on breastfeeding practices and anthropometric measures. Infant length and weight measurements were used to produce length-for-age (LAZ), weight-for-age (WAZ), and weight-for-length (WLZ) Z-scores. We used multiple linear regression to assess the association between anthropometric indices and PLF practices, controlling for household wealth, maternal age, weight, education, occupation, and infant age, sex, and neonatal sizes.ResultsThe prevalence of PLF was 23%. Compared to infants who did not receive PLF, infants who received PLF may have a higher LAZ (Mean difference (MD) = 0.02 [95% CI: -0.04, 0.08]) score, a lower WLZ (MD=-0.06 [95% CI: -0.15, 0.03]) score, and a lower WAZ (MD=-0.02 [95% CI: -0.08, 0.05]) score at 3-5 months of age, but none of the differences were statistically significant. In the adjusted model, female sex, larger size during the neonatal period, higher maternal education, and wealthier households were associated with larger infant size.ConclusionPLF was a common practice in this setting. Although no association between PLF and infant growth was identified, we cannot ignore the potential harm posed by PLF. Future studies could assess infant size at an earlier time point, such as 1-month postpartum, or use longitudinal data to assess more subtle differences in growth trajectories with PLF.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03683667 and NCT02909179.
| S-EPMC10900540 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLow birth weight predicts risk of infant death. However, several birth measurements may be equally predictive, for which cutoffs and associated risks are less explored.ObjectivesWe assessed and optimized population cutoffs of birth length, weight, and midupper arm circumference (MUAC), head circumference (HC), and chest circumference (CC) for predicting neonatal (≤28 d) and infant (≤365 d) mortality in northwest Bangladesh.MethodsAmong 28,026 singletons born in an antenatal micronutrient supplement trial, 21,174 received anthropometry ≤72 h after birth, among whom 583 died in infancy. Optimization for predicting mortality for each measurement was guided by the Youden Index (sensitivity + specificity - 1). Relative risk ratios (RRRs) and positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated across cutoff ranges for individual and any pair of measurements.ResultsOptimal cutoffs, harmonized to 100-g or 0.5-cm readings, for neonatal and infant mortality were 44.5 cm for length, 2200 g for weight, 9.0 cm for MUAC, 31.0 cm for HC, and 28.5 cm for CC, below which all predicted mortality. However, a CC <28.5 cm, alone and combined with HC <31.0 cm, yielded the highest RRR [9.68 (95% CI: 7.84, 11.94) and 15.74 (95% CI: 12.54, 19.75), respectively] and PPV (11.3% and 10.7%) for neonatal mortality and highest RRR [6.02 (95% CI: 5.15, 7.02) and 9.19 (95% CI: 7.72, 10.95)] and PPV (16.3% and 14.5%) for infant mortality. Pairs of measurements revealed a higher RRR for neonatal and infant mortality than individual measurements of any one pair, although the ranges of PPV remained comparable.ConclusionsIn Bangladesh, multiple birth measurements alone or in combination, particularly chest circumference, predict neonatal and infant mortality.
| S-EPMC9071409 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThe main objective of this study is to investigate how the direction and strength of the association between infant mortality and its predictors are changing over time in Bangladesh using a nationally representative sample for the period 2011-2014.Design, setting and participantsData from two repeatedly cross-sectional Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) for the years 2011 and 2014 were used. A total of 7664 (with 312 infant death) and 7048 (with 264 infant death) complete cases, respectively, from BDHS 2011 and 2014 datasets were included in the study.MethodsCox's proportional hazard model with robust standard error (SE) that adjusts for the complex survey design characteristics was implemented to assess how the risk factors associated with infant mortality change their paths.ResultsResults reflected that administrative division remained as a potential risk factor of infant death for both periods. Household's socioeconomic status, father's employment status, age difference between parents turned out to be potential risk factors in 2014, though they did not show any significant association with infant death in the year 2011. In contrast to 2011, mothers' individual-level characteristics such as age at childbirth, education, media exposure, employment status did not remain as significant risk factors for infant death in 2014. Younger fathers increased the burden of death among infants of adolescent mothers. At higher order births, the burden of infant death significantly shifted from rural to urban areas. From the year 2011 to 2014, urban areas achieved socioeconomic equity in infant survival, while the extent of inequity was increased in rural areas.ConclusionCommunity-based programmes should be designed for urban mothers who are expecting higher order births. To eradicate the socioeconomic inequity in infant survival, the government should design strong and sustainable maternal and child healthcare facilities, especially for rural areas.
| S-EPMC8362712 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The association between suboptimal infant feeding practices and growth faltering is well-established. However, most of this evidence comes from cross-sectional studies. To prospectively assess the association between suboptimal infant feeding practices and growth faltering, we interviewed pregnant women at 28-32 weeks' gestation and followed-up their offspring at postnatal months 3, 9, 16 and 24 months in rural Bangladesh. Using maternal recall over the past 24 hours, exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) status at 3 months, age at complementary feeding (CF) initiation, and receipt of minimum acceptable diet (MAD; as defined by WHO) at 9 months were assessed. Infant length and weight measurements were used to produce length-for-age (LAZ) and weight-for-length (WLZ) z-scores at each follow-up. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate associations of LAZ and WLZ with infant feeding practices. All models were adjusted for baseline SES, infant sex, maternal height, age, literacy and parity. Follow-up was completed by 2189, 2074, 1969 and 1885 mother-child dyads at 3, 9, 16 and 24 months, respectively. Stunting prevalence increased from 28% to 57% between infant age 3 and 24 months. EBF at 3 months and age at CF initiation were not associated with linear infant growth, but receipt of MAD at 9 months was. By age 24 months, infants receiving MAD had attained a higher LAZ compared to infants who did not receive MAD (adjusted ? = 0.25, 95% CI: 0.13-0.37). Although prevalence of stunting was already high at age 3 months, ensuring infants receive a diverse, high quality diet from 6 months onwards may reduce rates of stunting in the second year of life.
| S-EPMC5077142 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In recent times, India has experienced a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly in northeast India (NEI), an area known for its rich natural resources. Despite the geographic continuity of NEI and Bangladesh, previous studies have failed to consider their interconnectedness, resulting in an incomplete understanding of the situation. To bridge this gap, a comprehensive study encompassed the entire NEI, including West Bengal and Bangladesh (hereafter referred to as NEIB). This study examined climate extremes in NEIB, utilizing 12 temperature-based and 8 precipitation-based indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Analysis was performed on temperature and precipitation data obtained from the India Meteorological Department and Bangladesh Meteorological Department covering the period 1981-2021. Additionally, climate projections from 14 Global Climate Models participating in the CMIP6 were incorporated for the period 2015-2100, considering four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. Findings revealed that under the SSP585 scenario, a substantial rise of 4 °C in maximum temperatures and 5.5 °C in minimum temperatures by the end of the twenty-first century. Warming indices, such as the summer days index, indicated an expected increase of 53 days, while the Warm spell days index was estimated to rise by approximately 2 days. Heavy precipitation days (R20mm) were projected to increase by up to 14 days, with a notable impact in Meghalaya. While the number of rainy days is expected to decrease, the overall magnitude of precipitation is anticipated to remain relatively stable. Notably, the Simple daily intensity index demonstrated a rise of 2.4 mm/day compared to the current baseline of 14.4 mm/day. These projected changes have significant ramifications for water resources, agriculture, health, and infrastructure in the region.
| S-EPMC10511735 | biostudies-literature