Dataset Information

The impact of temperature extremes on mortality: a time-series study in Jinan, China.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To investigate the relationship between temperature extremes and daily number of deaths in Jinan, a temperate city in northern China.

Methods

Data ondaily number of deaths and meteorological variables over the period of 2011-2014 were collected. Cold spells or heat waves were defined as ?3?consecutive days with mean temperature ?5th percentile or ?95th percentile, respectively. We applied a time-series adjusted Poisson regression to assess the effects of extreme temperature on deaths.

Results

There were 152?150 non-accidental deaths over the study period in Jinan, among which 87?607 people died of cardiovascular disease, 11?690 of respiratory disease, 33?001 of stroke and 6624 of chronic obstrutive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cold spells significantly increased the risk of deaths due to non-accidental mortality (RR 1.08, 95%?CI 1.06 to 1.11), cardiovascular disease (RR 1.06, 95%?CI 1.03 to 1.10), respiratory disease (RR 1.19, 95%?CI 1.11 to 1.27), stroke (RR 1.11, 95%?CI 1.06 to 1.17) and COPD (RR 1.27, 95%?CI 1.16 to 1.38). Heat waves significantly increased the risk of deaths due to non-accidental mortality (RR 1.02, 95%?CI 1.00 to 1.05), cardiovascular disease (RR 1.03, 95%?CI 1.00 to 1.06) and stroke (RR 1.06, 95%?CI 1.00 to 1.13). The elderly were more vulnerable during heat wave exposure; however, vulnerability to cold spell was the same for the whole population regardless of age and gender.

Conclusions

Both cold spells and heat waves have increased the risk of death in Jinan, China.

SUBMITTER: Han J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5566622 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

The impact of temperature extremes on mortality: a time-series study in Jinan, China.

Han Jing J Liu Shouqin S Zhang Jun J Zhou Lin L Fang Qiaoling Q Zhang Ji J Zhang Ying Y

BMJ open 20170502 4

<h4>Objective</h4>To investigate the relationship between temperature extremes and daily number of deaths in Jinan, a temperate city in northern China.<h4>Methods</h4>Data ondaily number of deaths and meteorological variables over the period of 2011-2014 were collected. Cold spells or heat waves were defined as ≥3 consecutive days with mean temperature ≤5th percentile or ≥95th percentile, respectively. We applied a time-series adjusted Poisson regression to assess the effects of extreme temperat ...[more]

PMID: 28465307

Similar Datasets

Project description:BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have reported on the associations between ambient temperatures and mortality. However, few multi-city studies have been conducted in developing countries including China. This study aimed to examine the association between high temperature and mortality outcomes in four cities with different climatic characteristics in China to identify the most vulnerable population, detect the threshold temperatures, and provide scientific evidence for public health policy implementations to respond to challenges from extreme heat. METHODS: A semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) with a Poisson distribution was used to analyze the impacts of the daily maximum temperature over the threshold on mortality after controlling for covariates including time trends, day of the week (DOW), humidity, daily temperature range, and outdoor air pollution. RESULTS: The temperature thresholds for all-cause mortality were 29°C, 35°C, 33°C and 34°C for Harbin, Nanjing, Shenzhen and Chongqing, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders including air pollution, strong associations between daily maximum temperature and daily mortality from all-cause, cardiovascular, endocrine and metabolic outcomes, and particularly diabetes, were observed in different geographical cities, with increases of 3.2-5.5%, 4.6-7.5% and 12.5-31.9% (with 14.7-29.2% in diabetes), respectively, with each 1°C increment in the daily maximum temperature over the threshold. A stronger temperature-associated mortality was detected in females compared to males. Additionally, both the population over 55 years and younger adults aged 30 to 54 years reported significant heat-mortality associations. CONCLUSIONS: Extreme heat is becoming a huge threat to public health and human welfare due to the strong temperature-mortality associations in China. Climate change with increasing temperatures may make the situation worse. Relevant public health strategies and an early extreme weather and health warning system should be developed and improved at an early stage to prevent and reduce the health risks due to extreme weather and climate change in China, given its huge population, diverse geographic distribution and unbalanced socioeconomic status with various climatic characteristics.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Our study aims to obtain estimates of the size effects of temperature extremes on infant mortality in Bangladesh using monthly time series data. METHODS:Data on temperature, child and infant mortality were obtained for Matlab district of rural Bangladesh for January 1982 to December 2008 encompassing 49,426 infant deaths. To investigate the relationship between mortality and temperature, we adopted a regression with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) errors model of seasonally adjusted temperature and mortality data. The relationship between monthly mean and maximum temperature on infant mortality was tested at 0 and 1 month lags respectively. Furthermore, our analysis was stratified to determine if the results differed by gender (boys versus girls) and by age (neonates (≤ 30 days) versus post neonates (>30days and <153days)). Dickey Fuller tests were performed to test for stationarity, and since the time series were non-stationary, we conducted the regression analysis based on the first differences of mortality and temperature. RESULTS:Hotter months were associated with lower infant mortality in Bangladesh. Each degree Celsius increase in mean monthly temperature reduced monthly mortality by 3.672 (SE 1.544, p<0.05) points. A one degree increase in mean monthly temperature one month prior reduced mortality by 0.767 (SE 0.439, p<0.1) for boys and by -0.0764 (SE 0.366, NS) for girls. Beneficial effects of maximum monthly temperature were on the order of 0.623 to -0.712 and statistically significant for girls and boys respectively. Effect sizes of mean monthly temperature were larger for neonates at 1.126 (SE 0.499, p<0.05) than for post-neonates at 0.880 (SE 0.310, p<0.05) reductions in mortality per degree. CONCLUSION:There is no evidence that infant survival is adversely affected by monthly temperature extremes in Bangladesh. This may reflect a more heightened sensitivity of infants to hypothermia than hyperthermia in this environment.

Dataset Information

The impact of temperature extremes on mortality: a time-series study in Jinan, China.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

The impact of temperature extremes on mortality: a time-series study in Jinan, China.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets