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ABSTRACT: Importance
Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have unique patterns of response and survival that differ from conventional chemotherapies. Novel intermediate end points are urgently required to detect the early signals of ICI activity.Objective
To evaluate milestone rate (Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival probabilities at given time points) and milestone restricted mean survival time (RMST, the area under survival curves up to given time points) as potential intermediate end points for ICI trials.Data sources
Electronic databases (pre-MEDLINE, MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) were searched for randomized clinical trials published between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2017.Study selection
Phase 2 and phase 3 randomized clinical trials evaluating ICIs in advanced solid tumors.Data extraction and synthesis
Two investigators extracted the data and reconstructed individual patient data to estimate the milestone rate or milestone RMST from the published Kaplan-Meier curves.Main outcomes and measures
Trial-level milestone rates or milestone RMSTs were estimated for 6-month and 9-month progression-free survival (PFS) and 9-month and 12-month overall survival (OS). A weighted linear regression model evaluated the correlations of ratios of milestone rates or milestone RMSTs with OS hazard ratios (HRs).Results
Twenty-six trials examining 8 different tumor types were identified, including 12?892 patients. Overall survival HR was correlated with the ratio of 9-month OS milestone rate (R2?=?0.45; 95% CI, 0.27-0.74), and with the ratio of 12-month OS milestone rate (R2?=?0.40; 95% CI, 0.22-0.70). The ratio of 9-month OS milestone RMST (R2?=?0.60; 95% CI, 0.28-0.74) and ratio of 12-month OS milestone RMST were correlated with OS HR (R2?=?0.64; 95% CI, 0.42-0.78). No correlations were observed between OS HR and the ratio of 6-month or 9-month PFS milestone rates or milestone RMSTs.Conclusions and relevance
Ratios of OS milestone RMSTs had a stronger correlation with OS HRs than ratios of OS milestone rates, whereas ratios of PFS milestone rates and ratios of PFS milestone RMSTs were not correlated with OS HRs. The OS milestone RMST could be further studied as an intermediate end point in future ICI trials.
SUBMITTER: Wang ZX
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6503508 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
JAMA network open 20190503 5
<h4>Importance</h4>Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have unique patterns of response and survival that differ from conventional chemotherapies. Novel intermediate end points are urgently required to detect the early signals of ICI activity.<h4>Objective</h4>To evaluate milestone rate (Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival probabilities at given time points) and milestone restricted mean survival time (RMST, the area under survival curves up to given time points) as potential intermediate end poi ...[more]