Dataset Information

Predicting anxiety from wholebrain activity patterns to emotional faces in young adults: a machine learning approach.

ABSTRACT:

Background

It is becoming increasingly clear that pathophysiological processes underlying psychiatric disorders categories are heterogeneous on many levels, including symptoms, disease course, comorbidity and biological underpinnings. This heterogeneity poses challenges for identifying biological markers associated with dimensions of symptoms and behaviour that could provide targets to guide treatment choice and novel treatment. In response, the research domain criteria (RDoC) (Insel et al., 2010) was developed to advocate a dimensional approach which omits any disease definitions, disorder thresholds, or cut-points for various levels of psychopathology to understanding the pathophysiological processes underlying psychiatry disorders. In the present study we aimed to apply pattern regression analysis to identify brain signatures during dynamic emotional face processing that are predictive of anxiety and depression symptoms in a continuum that ranges from normal to pathological levels, cutting across categorically-defined diagnoses.

Methods

The sample was composed of one-hundred and fifty-four young adults (mean age=21.6 and s.d.=2.0, 103 females) consisting of eighty-two young adults seeking treatment for psychological distress that cut across categorically-defined diagnoses and 72 matched healthy young adults. Participants performed a dynamic face task involving fearful, angry and happy faces (and geometric shapes) while undergoing functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). Pattern regression analyses consisted of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) implemented in the Pattern Recognition for Neuroimaging toolbox (PRoNTo). Predicted and actual clinical scores were compared using Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) and normalized mean squared error (MSE) to evaluate the models' performance. Permutation test was applied to estimate significance levels.

Results

GPR identified patterns of neural activity to dynamic emotional face processing predictive of self-report anxiety in the whole sample, which covered a continuum that ranged from healthy to different levels of distress, including subthreshold to fully-syndromal psychiatric diagnoses. Results were significant using two different cross validation strategies (two-fold: r=0.28 (p-value=0.001), MSE=4.47 (p-value=0.001) and five fold r=0.28 (p-value=0.002), MSE=4.62 (p-value=0.003). The contributions of individual regions to the predictive model were very small, demonstrating that predictions were based on the overall pattern rather than on a small combination of regions.

Conclusions

These findings represent early evidence that neuroimaging techniques may inform clinical assessment of young adults irrespective of diagnoses by allowing accurate and objective quantitative estimation of psychopathology.

SUBMITTER: Portugal LCL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6517640 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting anxiety from wholebrain activity patterns to emotional faces in young adults: a machine learning approach.

Portugal Liana C L LCL Schrouff Jessica J Stiffler Ricki R Bertocci Michele M Bebko Genna G Chase Henry H Lockovitch Jeanette J Aslam Haris H Graur Simona S Greenberg Tsafrir T Pereira Mirtes M Oliveira Leticia L Phillips Mary M Mourão-Miranda Janaina J

NeuroImage. Clinical 20190403

<h4>Background</h4>It is becoming increasingly clear that pathophysiological processes underlying psychiatric disorders categories are heterogeneous on many levels, including symptoms, disease course, comorbidity and biological underpinnings. This heterogeneity poses challenges for identifying biological markers associated with dimensions of symptoms and behaviour that could provide targets to guide treatment choice and novel treatment. In response, the research domain criteria (RDoC) (Insel et ...[more]

PMID: 31082774

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Project description:BackgroundMental health disorders affect multiple aspects of patients' lives, including mood, cognition, and behavior. eHealth and mobile health (mHealth) technologies enable rich sets of information to be collected noninvasively, representing a promising opportunity to construct behavioral markers of mental health. Combining such data with self-reported information about psychological symptoms may provide a more comprehensive and contextualized view of a patient's mental state than questionnaire data alone. However, mobile sensed data are usually noisy and incomplete, with significant amounts of missing observations. Therefore, recognizing the clinical potential of mHealth tools depends critically on developing methods to cope with such data issues.ObjectiveThis study aims to present a machine learning-based approach for emotional state prediction that uses passively collected data from mobile phones and wearable devices and self-reported emotions. The proposed methods must cope with high-dimensional and heterogeneous time-series data with a large percentage of missing observations.MethodsPassively sensed behavior and self-reported emotional state data from a cohort of 943 individuals (outpatients recruited from community clinics) were available for analysis. All patients had at least 30 days' worth of naturally occurring behavior observations, including information about physical activity, geolocation, sleep, and smartphone app use. These regularly sampled but frequently missing and heterogeneous time series were analyzed with the following probabilistic latent variable models for data averaging and feature extraction: mixture model (MM) and hidden Markov model (HMM). The extracted features were then combined with a classifier to predict emotional state. A variety of classical machine learning methods and recurrent neural networks were compared. Finally, a personalized Bayesian model was proposed to improve performance by considering the individual differences in the data and applying a different classifier bias term for each patient.ResultsProbabilistic generative models proved to be good preprocessing and feature extractor tools for data with large percentages of missing observations. Models that took into account the posterior probabilities of the MM and HMM latent states outperformed those that did not by more than 20%, suggesting that the underlying behavioral patterns identified were meaningful for individuals' overall emotional state. The best performing generalized models achieved a 0.81 area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic and 0.71 area under the precision-recall curve when predicting self-reported emotional valence from behavior in held-out test data. Moreover, the proposed personalized models demonstrated that accounting for individual differences through a simple hierarchical model can substantially improve emotional state prediction performance without relying on previous days' data.ConclusionsThese findings demonstrate the feasibility of designing machine learning models for predicting emotional states from mobile sensing data capable of dealing with heterogeneous data with large numbers of missing observations. Such models may represent valuable tools for clinicians to monitor patients' mood states.

Project description:BackgroundThe Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services projects that health care costs will continue to grow over the next few years. Rising readmission costs contribute significantly to increasing health care costs. Multiple areas of health care, including readmissions, have benefited from the application of various machine learning algorithms in several ways.ObjectiveWe aimed to identify suitable models for predicting readmission charges billed by hospitals. Our literature review revealed that this application of machine learning is underexplored. We used various predictive methods, ranging from glass-box models (such as regularization techniques) to black-box models (such as deep learning-based models).MethodsWe defined readmissions as readmission with the same major diagnostic category (RSDC) and all-cause readmission category (RADC). For these readmission categories, 576,701 and 1,091,580 individuals, respectively, were identified from the Nationwide Readmission Database of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality for 2013. Linear regression, lasso regression, elastic net, ridge regression, eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and a deep learning model based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) were the 6 machine learning algorithms we tested for RSDC and RADC through 10-fold cross-validation.ResultsOur preliminary analysis using a data-driven approach revealed that within RADC, the subsequent readmission charge billed per patient was higher than the previous charge for 541,090 individuals, and this number was 319,233 for RSDC. The top 3 major diagnostic categories (MDCs) for such instances were the same for RADC and RSDC. The average readmission charge billed was higher than the previous charge for 21 of the MDCs in the case of RSDC, whereas it was only for 13 of the MDCs in RADC. We recommend XGBoost and the deep learning model based on MLP for predicting readmission charges. The following performance metrics were obtained for XGBoost: (1) RADC (mean absolute percentage error [MAPE]=3.121%; root mean squared error [RMSE]=0.414; mean absolute error [MAE]=0.317; root relative squared error [RRSE]=0.410; relative absolute error [RAE]=0.399; normalized RMSE [NRMSE]=0.040; mean absolute deviation [MAD]=0.031) and (2) RSDC (MAPE=3.171%; RMSE=0.421; MAE=0.321; RRSE=0.407; RAE=0.393; NRMSE=0.041; MAD=0.031). The performance obtained for MLP-based deep neural networks are as follows: (1) RADC (MAPE=3.103%; RMSE=0.413; MAE=0.316; RRSE=0.410; RAE=0.397; NRMSE=0.040; MAD=0.031) and (2) RSDC (MAPE=3.202%; RMSE=0.427; MAE=0.326; RRSE=0.413; RAE=0.399; NRMSE=0.041; MAD=0.032). Repeated measures ANOVA revealed that the mean RMSE differed significantly across models with P<.001. Post hoc tests using the Bonferroni correction method indicated that the mean RMSE of the deep learning/XGBoost models was statistically significantly (P<.001) lower than that of all other models, namely linear regression/elastic net/lasso/ridge regression.ConclusionsModels built using XGBoost and MLP are suitable for predicting readmission charges billed by hospitals. The MDCs allow models to accurately predict hospital readmission charges.

Dataset Information

Predicting anxiety from wholebrain activity patterns to emotional faces in young adults: a machine learning approach.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicting anxiety from wholebrain activity patterns to emotional faces in young adults: a machine learning approach.

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