Dataset Information

Using Machine Learning and the Electronic Health Record to Predict Complicated Clostridium difficile Infection.

ABSTRACT: Background:Clostridium (Clostridioides) difficile infection (CDI) is a health care-associated infection that can lead to serious complications. Potential complications include intensive care unit (ICU) admission, development of toxic megacolon, need for colectomy, and death. However, identifying the patients most likely to develop complicated CDI is challenging. To this end, we explored the utility of a machine learning (ML) approach for patient risk stratification for complications using electronic health record (EHR) data. Methods:We considered adult patients diagnosed with CDI between October 2010 and January 2013 at the University of Michigan hospitals. Cases were labeled complicated if the infection resulted in ICU admission, colectomy, or 30-day mortality. Leveraging EHR data, we trained a model to predict subsequent complications on each of the 3 days after diagnosis. We compared our EHR-based model to one based on a small set of manually curated features. We evaluated model performance using a held-out data set in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results:Of 1118 cases of CDI, 8% became complicated. On the day of diagnosis, the model achieved an AUROC of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-0.83). Using data extracted 2 days after CDI diagnosis, performance increased (AUROC, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83-0.95), outperforming a model based on a curated set of features (AUROC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.75-0.91). Conclusions:Using EHR data, we can accurately stratify CDI cases according to their risk of developing complications. Such an approach could be used to guide future clinical studies investigating interventions that could prevent or mitigate complicated CDI.

SUBMITTER: Li BY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6527086 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using Machine Learning and the Electronic Health Record to Predict Complicated <i>Clostridium difficile</i> Infection.

Li Benjamin Y BY Oh Jeeheh J Young Vincent B VB Rao Krishna K Wiens Jenna J

Open forum infectious diseases 20190420 5

<h4>Background</h4><i>Clostridium</i> (<i>Clostridioides</i>) <i>difficile</i> infection (CDI) is a health care-associated infection that can lead to serious complications. Potential complications include intensive care unit (ICU) admission, development of toxic megacolon, need for colectomy, and death. However, identifying the patients most likely to develop complicated CDI is challenging. To this end, we explored the utility of a machine learning (ML) approach for patient risk stratification f ...[more]

PMID: 31139672

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Project description:ObjectiveElectronic health records (EHR) offer medical and pharmacogenomics research unprecedented opportunities to identify and classify patients at risk. EHRs are collections of highly inter-dependent records that include biological, anatomical, physiological, and behavioral observations. They comprise a patient's clinical phenome, where each patient has thousands of date-stamped records distributed across many relational tables. Development of EHR computer-based phenotyping algorithms require time and medical insight from clinical experts, who most often can only review a small patient subset representative of the total EHR records, to identify phenotype features. In this research we evaluate whether relational machine learning (ML) using inductive logic programming (ILP) can contribute to addressing these issues as a viable approach for EHR-based phenotyping.MethodsTwo relational learning ILP approaches and three well-known WEKA (Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis) implementations of non-relational approaches (PART, J48, and JRIP) were used to develop models for nine phenotypes. International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) coded EHR data were used to select training cohorts for the development of each phenotypic model. Accuracy, precision, recall, F-Measure, and Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) curve statistics were measured for each phenotypic model based on independent manually verified test cohorts. A two-sided binomial distribution test (sign test) compared the five ML approaches across phenotypes for statistical significance.ResultsWe developed an approach to automatically label training examples using ICD-9 diagnosis codes for the ML approaches being evaluated. Nine phenotypic models for each ML approach were evaluated, resulting in better overall model performance in AUROC using ILP when compared to PART (p=0.039), J48 (p=0.003) and JRIP (p=0.003).DiscussionILP has the potential to improve phenotyping by independently delivering clinically expert interpretable rules for phenotype definitions, or intuitive phenotypes to assist experts.ConclusionRelational learning using ILP offers a viable approach to EHR-driven phenotyping.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Stroke severity is an important predictor of patient outcomes and is commonly measured with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores. Because these scores are often recorded as free text in physician reports, structured real-world evidence databases seldom include the severity. The aim of this study was to use machine learning models to impute NIHSS scores for all patients with newly diagnosed stroke from multi-institution electronic health record (EHR) data. METHODS:NIHSS scores available in the Optum© de-identified Integrated Claims-Clinical dataset were extracted from physician notes by applying natural language processing (NLP) methods. The cohort analyzed in the study consists of the 7149 patients with an inpatient or emergency room diagnosis of ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, or transient ischemic attack and a corresponding NLP-extracted NIHSS score. A subset of these patients (n?=?1033, 14%) were held out for independent validation of model performance and the remaining patients (n?=?6116, 86%) were used for training the model. Several machine learning models were evaluated, and parameters optimized using cross-validation on the training set. The model with optimal performance, a random forest model, was ultimately evaluated on the holdout set. RESULTS:Leveraging machine learning we identified the main factors in electronic health record data for assessing stroke severity, including death within the same month as stroke occurrence, length of hospital stay following stroke occurrence, aphagia/dysphagia diagnosis, hemiplegia diagnosis, and whether a patient was discharged to home or self-care. Comparing the imputed NIHSS scores to the NLP-extracted NIHSS scores on the holdout data set yielded an R2 (coefficient of determination) of 0.57, an R (Pearson correlation coefficient) of 0.76, and a root-mean-squared error of 4.5. CONCLUSIONS:Machine learning models built on EHR data can be used to determine proxies for stroke severity. This enables severity to be incorporated in studies of stroke patient outcomes using administrative and EHR databases.

Project description:BackgroundAccurate, pragmatic risk stratification for postoperative delirium (POD) is necessary to target preventative resources toward high-risk patients. Machine learning (ML) offers a novel approach to leveraging electronic health record (EHR) data for POD prediction. We sought to develop and internally validate a ML-derived POD risk prediction model using preoperative risk features, and to compare its performance to models developed with traditional logistic regression.MethodsThis was a retrospective analysis of preoperative EHR data from 24,885 adults undergoing a procedure requiring anesthesia care, recovering in the main post-anesthesia care unit, and staying in the hospital at least overnight between December 2016 and December 2019 at either of two hospitals in a tertiary care health system. One hundred fifteen preoperative risk features including demographics, comorbidities, nursing assessments, surgery type, and other preoperative EHR data were used to predict postoperative delirium (POD), defined as any instance of Nursing Delirium Screening Scale ≥2 or positive Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit within the first 7 postoperative days. Two ML models (Neural Network and XGBoost), two traditional logistic regression models ("clinician-guided" and "ML hybrid"), and a previously described delirium risk stratification tool (AWOL-S) were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and positive predictive value. Model calibration was assessed with a calibration curve. Patients with no POD assessments charted or at least 20% of input variables missing were excluded.ResultsPOD incidence was 5.3%. The AUC-ROC for Neural Net was 0.841 [95% CI 0. 816-0.863] and for XGBoost was 0.851 [95% CI 0.827-0.874], which was significantly better than the clinician-guided (AUC-ROC 0.763 [0.734-0.793], p < 0.001) and ML hybrid (AUC-ROC 0.824 [0.800-0.849], p < 0.001) regression models and AWOL-S (AUC-ROC 0.762 [95% CI 0.713-0.812], p < 0.001). Neural Net, XGBoost, and ML hybrid models demonstrated excellent calibration, while calibration of the clinician-guided and AWOL-S models was moderate; they tended to overestimate delirium risk in those already at highest risk.ConclusionUsing pragmatically collected EHR data, two ML models predicted POD in a broad perioperative population with high discrimination. Optimal application of the models would provide automated, real-time delirium risk stratification to improve perioperative management of surgical patients at risk for POD.

Project description:RationalePatients transferred from the intensive care unit to the wards who are later readmitted to the intensive care unit have increased length of stay, healthcare expenditure, and mortality compared with those who are never readmitted. Improving risk stratification for patients transferred to the wards could have important benefits for critically ill hospitalized patients.ObjectivesWe aimed to use a machine-learning technique to derive and validate an intensive care unit readmission prediction model with variables available in the electronic health record in real time and compare it to previously published algorithms.MethodsThis observational cohort study was conducted at an academic hospital in the United States with approximately 600 inpatient beds. A total of 24,885 intensive care unit transfers to the wards were included, with 14,962 transfers (60%) in the training cohort and 9,923 transfers (40%) in the internal validation cohort. Patient characteristics, nursing assessments, International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes from prior admissions, medications, intensive care unit interventions, diagnostic tests, vital signs, and laboratory results were extracted from the electronic health record and used as predictor variables in a gradient-boosted machine model. Accuracy for predicting intensive care unit readmission was compared with the Stability and Workload Index for Transfer score and Modified Early Warning Score in the internal validation cohort and also externally using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database (n = 42,303 intensive care unit transfers).ResultsEleven percent (2,834) of discharges to the wards were later readmitted to the intensive care unit. The machine-learning-derived model had significantly better performance (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.76) than either the Stability and Workload Index for Transfer score (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.65), or Modified Early Warning Score (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.58; P value < 0.0001 for all comparisons). At a specificity of 95%, the derived model had a sensitivity of 28% compared with 15% for Stability and Workload Index for Transfer score and 7% for the Modified Early Warning Score. Accuracy improvements with the derived model over Modified Early Warning Score and Stability and Workload Index for Transfer were similar in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III cohort.ConclusionsA machine learning approach to predicting intensive care unit readmission was significantly more accurate than previously published algorithms in both our internal validation and the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III cohort. Implementation of this approach could target patients who may benefit from additional time in the intensive care unit or more frequent monitoring after transfer to the hospital ward.

Project description:BackgroundDrug-induced long-QT syndrome (diLQTS) is a major concern among patients who are hospitalized, for whom prediction models capable of identifying individualized risk could be useful to guide monitoring. We have previously demonstrated the feasibility of machine learning to predict the risk of diLQTS, in which deep learning models provided superior accuracy for risk prediction, although these models were limited by a lack of interpretability.ObjectiveIn this investigation, we sought to examine the potential trade-off between interpretability and predictive accuracy with the use of more complex models to identify patients at risk for diLQTS. We planned to compare a deep learning algorithm to predict diLQTS with a more interpretable algorithm based on cluster analysis that would allow medication- and subpopulation-specific evaluation of risk.MethodsWe examined the risk of diLQTS among 35,639 inpatients treated between 2003 and 2018 with at least 1 of 39 medications associated with risk of diLQTS and who had an electrocardiogram in the system performed within 24 hours of medication administration. Predictors included over 22,000 diagnoses and medications at the time of medication administration, with cases of diLQTS defined as a corrected QT interval over 500 milliseconds after treatment with a culprit medication. The interpretable model was developed using cluster analysis (K=4 clusters), and risk was assessed for specific medications and classes of medications. The deep learning model was created using all predictors within a 6-layer neural network, based on previously identified hyperparameters.ResultsAmong the medications, we found that class III antiarrhythmic medications were associated with increased risk across all clusters, and that in patients who are noncritically ill without cardiovascular disease, propofol was associated with increased risk, whereas ondansetron was associated with decreased risk. Compared with deep learning, the interpretable approach was less accurate (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.65 vs 0.78), with comparable calibration.ConclusionsIn summary, we found that an interpretable modeling approach was less accurate, but more clinically applicable, than deep learning for the prediction of diLQTS. Future investigations should consider this trade-off in the development of methods for clinical prediction.

Project description:IntroductionClostridium difficile infection (CDI) is a common cause of nosocomial diarrhea. Metronidazole and vancomycin are the primary treatment options for CDI, but increasing rates of antimicrobial resistance and severe, refractory disease have prompted the need for alternative agents. Tigecycline has previously demonstrated favorable in vitro activity against C. difficile isolates, but clinical data on its use in the treatment of CDI are severely lacking. The objective of this study was to describe our experience using tigecycline in the treatment of severe and severe complicated CDI.MethodsThis was a retrospective case series of hospitalized patients with severe and severe complicated CDI who were treated with tigecycline. Disease severity assessments were determined according to current practice guidelines. Diagnosis of toxigenic CDI was confirmed by polymerase chain reaction and patients were excluded if they received tigecycline for <48 h. Data were collected by review of the electronic medical record. The primary outcome was clinical cure. Secondary outcomes were sustained response, hospital mortality, and 28-day all-cause mortality.ResultsA total of 7 cases of severe and complicated CDI were reviewed. Intravenous tigecycline administered as a 100-mg loading dose followed by 50 mg twice daily resulted in clinical cure in 85.7% (n = 6/7) of cases. The majority of patients (n = 4/5) were treated with the novel triple therapy combination of tigecycline, vancomycin, and metronidazole and resulted in clinical cure in 80% (n = 4/5) cases. Sustained response at 28 days was 100% among evaluable cases (n = 5/5). Hospital mortality did not occur in any patients, and 28-day all-cause mortality was 28.6% (n = 2/7).ConclusionTigecycline appears to be a reasonable addition to the therapeutic regimen in the treatment of severe or complicated CDI, including cases that are refractory to standard therapy. A prospective clinical trial confirming these observational findings is warranted.

Dataset Information

Using Machine Learning and the Electronic Health Record to Predict Complicated Clostridium difficile Infection.

Publications

Using Machine Learning and the Electronic Health Record to Predict Complicated <i>Clostridium difficile</i> Infection.

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