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Phenotypic variations in persistence and infectivity between and within environmentally transmitted pathogen populations impact population-level epidemic dynamics.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an evolutionary time-scale. On a shorter time-scale, a single-genotype pathogen population may display wide variation in persistence times and exhibit biphasic decay. METHODS:We use a transmission modeling framework to develop an infectious disease model with biphasic pathogen decay. We take a differential algebra approach to assessing model identifiability, calculate basic reproduction numbers by the next generation method, and use simulation to explore model dynamics. RESULTS:For both long and short time-scales, we demonstrate that epidemic-potential-preserving trade-offs have implications for epidemic dynamics: less infectious, more persistent pathogens cause epidemics to progress more slowly than more infectious, less persistent (labile) pathogens, even when the overall risk is the same. Using identifiability analysis, we show that the usual disease surveillance data does not sufficiently inform these underlying pathogen population dynamics, even when combined with basic environmental monitoring data. However, risk could be indirectly ascertained by developing methods to separately monitor labile and persistent subpopulations. Alternatively, determining the relative infectivity of persistent pathogen subpopulations and the rates of phenotypic conversion will help ascertain how much disease risk is associated with the long tails of biphasic decay. CONCLUSION:A better understanding of persistence-infectivity trade-offs and associated dynamics can improve our ecological understanding of environmentally transmitted pathogens, as well as our risk assessment and disease control strategies.

SUBMITTER: Brouwer AF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6530054 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Phenotypic variations in persistence and infectivity between and within environmentally transmitted pathogen populations impact population-level epidemic dynamics.

Brouwer Andrew F AF Eisenberg Marisa C MC Love Nancy G NG Eisenberg Joseph N S JNS

BMC infectious diseases 20190522 1

<h4>Background</h4>Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an evolutionary time-scale. On a shorter time-scale, a single-genotype pathogen population may display wide variation in persistence times and exhibit biphasic decay.<h4>Methods</h4>We use a transmission modeling framework to develop an infectious d ...[more]

PMID: 31113377

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Project description:From May 1997 to December 2001, a serotype O:6 multidrug-resistant strain of Pseudomonas aeruginosa colonized or infected 201 patients in the University Hospital of Besançon (France). The susceptibility profile of this epidemic clone to fluoroquinolones and aminoglycosides was relatively stable during the outbreak but showed important isolate-to-isolate variations (up to 64-fold) in the MICs of beta-lactams. Analysis of 18 genotypically related isolates selected on a quarterly basis demonstrated alterations in the two DNA topoisomerases II and IV (Thr83-->Ile in GyrA and Ser87-->Leu in ParC) and production of an ANT(2")-I enzyme. Although constitutively overproduced in these bacteria, the MexXY efflux system did not appear to contribute significantly to aminoglycoside resistance. beta-Lactam resistance was associated with derepression of intrinsic AmpC beta-lactamase (with isolate-to-isolate variations of up to 58-fold) and sporadic deficiency in a 46-kDa protein identified as the carbapenem-selective porin OprD. Of the 18 isolates, 14 were also found to overproduce the efflux system MexAB-OprM as a result of alteration of the repressor protein MexR (His107-->Pro). However, complementation experiments with the cloned mexR gene demonstrated that MexAB-OprM contributed only marginally to beta-lactam and fluoroquinolone resistance. Of the four isolates exhibiting wild-type MexAB-OprM expression despite the MexR alteration, two appeared to harbor secondary mutations in the mexA-mexR intergenic region and one harbored secondary mutations in the putative ribosome binding site located upstream of the mexAB oprM operon. In conclusion, this study shows that many mechanisms were involved in the multiresistance phenotype of this highly epidemic strain of P. aeruginosa. Our results also demonstrate that the clone sporadically underwent substantial genetic and phenotypic variations during the course of the outbreak, perhaps in relation to local or individual selective drug pressures.

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Phenotypic variations in persistence and infectivity between and within environmentally transmitted pathogen populations impact population-level epidemic dynamics.

Publications

Phenotypic variations in persistence and infectivity between and within environmentally transmitted pathogen populations impact population-level epidemic dynamics.

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