Dataset Information

Climate change will reduce suitable Caatinga dry forest habitat for endemic plants with disproportionate impacts on specialized reproductive strategies.

ABSTRACT: Global climate change alters the dynamic of natural ecosystems and directly affects species distributions, persistence and diversity. The impacts of climate change may lead to dramatic changes in biotic interactions, such as pollination and seed dispersal. Life history traits are extremely important to consider the vulnerability of a species to climate change, producing more robust models than those based primarily on species distributions. Here, we hypothesized that rising temperatures and aridity will reduce suitable habitats for the endemic flora of the Caatinga, the most diverse dry tropical forest on Earth. Specifically, species with specialized reproductive traits (e.g. vertebrate pollination, biotic dispersal, obligatory cross-pollination) should be more affected by climate change than those with generalist traits. We performed two ecological niche models (current and future) to simulate the effects of climate change on the distribution area of endemic species in relation to life-history traits. We used the MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 models for both intermediate (RCP4.5) and highest predicted (RCP8.5) GHG emission scenarios, with a resolution of 30' (~1 km2). Habitat with high occurrence probability (>80%) of endemic species will be reduced (up to ~10% for trees, ~13% for non-arboreous, 10-28% for species with any pollination/reproductive system), with the greatest reductions for species with specialized reproductive traits. In addition, the likely concentration of endemic plants in the extreme northeastern portion of the Caatinga, in more mesic areas, coincides with the currently most human-modified areas of the ecosystem, which combined with climate change will further contract suitable habitats of endemic species. In conclusion, plant species endemic to the Caatinga are highly vulnerable to even conservative scenarios of future climate change and may lose much of their climatic envelopes. New protected areas should be located in the northeastern portion of the Caatinga, which hosts a more favorable climate, but is currently exposed to escalating agricultural intensification.

SUBMITTER: Silva JLSE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6541362 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate change will reduce suitable Caatinga dry forest habitat for endemic plants with disproportionate impacts on specialized reproductive strategies.

Silva Jéssica Luiza Souza E JLSE Cruz-Neto Oswaldo O Peres Carlos A CA Tabarelli Marcelo M Lopes Ariadna Valentina AV

PloS one 20190529 5

Global climate change alters the dynamic of natural ecosystems and directly affects species distributions, persistence and diversity. The impacts of climate change may lead to dramatic changes in biotic interactions, such as pollination and seed dispersal. Life history traits are extremely important to consider the vulnerability of a species to climate change, producing more robust models than those based primarily on species distributions. Here, we hypothesized that rising temperatures and arid ...[more]

PMID: 31141533

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Project description:BackgroundBiological invasion is one of the main threats to tropical biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Prosopis juliflora (Sw) DC. (Fabales: Fabaceae: Caesalpinioideae) was introduced in the Caatinga dry forest of Northeast Brazil at early 1940s and successfully spread across the region. As other invasive species, it may benefit from the soils and seed dispersal by livestock. Here we examine how seed dispersal ecology and soil conditions collectively affect seed germination, early seedling performance and consequently the P. juliflora invasive potential.MethodsSeed germination, early seedling survival, life expectancy and soil attributes were examined in 10 plots located across three habitats (flooding plain, alluvial terrace and plateau) into a human-modified landscape of the Caatinga dry forest (a total of 12,000 seeds). Seeds were exposed to four seed dispersal methods: deposition on the soil surface, burial in the soil, passed through cattle (Boss taurus) digestive tracts and mixed with cattle manure and passed through mule (Equus africanus asinus × Equus ferus caballus) digestive tracts and mixed with mule manure. Seeds and seedlings were monitored through a year and their performance examined with expectancy tables.ResultsSoils differed among habitats, particularly its nutrient availability, texture and water with finely-textured and more fertile soils in the flooding plain. Total seed germination was relatively low (14.5%), with the highest score among seeds buried in the flooding plain (47.4 ± 25.3%). Seed dispersal by cattle and mule also positively impacted seed germination. Early seedling survival rate of P. juliflora was dramatically reduced with few seedlings still alive elapsed a year. Survival rate was highest in the first 30 days and declined between 30 and 60 days with stabilization at 70 days after germination in all seed treatments and habitats. However, survival and life expectancy were higher in the flooding plain at 75 days and lower in the plateau. Prosopis juliflora seedling survival and life expectancy were higher in the case seeds were mixed with cattle manure.SynthesisProsopis juliflora seeds and seedlings are sensitive to water stress and habitat desiccation. Therefore, they benefit from the humid soils often present across human-disturbed flooding plains. This plant also benefits from seed deposition/dispersal by livestock in these landscapes, since cattle manure represents a nutrient-rich and humid substrate for both seeds and seedlings. The quality of the seed dispersal service varies among livestock species, but this key mutualism between exotic species is due to the arillate, hard-coated and palatable seeds. Prosopis juliflora traits allow this species to take multiple benefits from human presence and thus operating as a human commensal.

Project description:Our aims were to quantify and map the plant sub regions of the the Caatinga, that covers 844,453 km2 and is the largest block of seasonally dry forest in South America. We performed spatial analyses of the largest dataset of woody plant distributions in this region assembled to date (of 2,666 shrub and tree species; 260 localities), compared these distributions with the current phytogeographic regionalizations, and investigated the potential environmental drivers of the floristic patterns in these sub regions. Phytogeographical regions were identified using quantitative analyses of species turnover calculated as Simpson dissimilarity index. We applied an interpolation method to map NMDS axes of compositional variation over the entire extent of the Caatinga, and then classified the compositional dissimilarity according to the number of biogeographical sub regions identified a priori using k-means analysis. We used multinomial logistic regression models to investigate the influence of contemporary climatic productivity, topographic complexity, soil characteristics, climate stability since the last glacial maximum, and the human footprint in explaining the identified sub regions. We identified nine spatially cohesive biogeographical sub regions. Current productivity, as indicated by an aridity index, was the only explanatory variable retained in the best model, explaining nearly half of the floristic variability between sub regions. The highest rates of endemism within the Caatinga were in the Core and Periphery Chapada Diamantina sub regions. Our findings suggest that the topographic complexity, soil variation, and human footprint in the Caatinga act on woody plant distributions at local scales and not as determinants of broad floristic patterns. The lack of effect of climatic stability since the last glacial maximum probably results from the fact that a single measure of climatic stability does not adequately capture the highly dynamic climatic shifts the region suffered during the Pleistocene. There was limited overlap between our results and previous Caatinga classifications.

Project description:We undertook a comprehensive, critical review of literature concerning the distribution, conservation status, and taxonomy of species of mammals endemic to the Cerrado and the Caatinga, the two largest biomes of the South American Dry-Diagonal. We present species accounts and lists of species, which we built with criteria that, in our opinion, yielded results with increased scientific rigor relative to previously published lists - e.g., excluding nominal taxa whose statuses as species have been claimed only on the basis of unpublished data, incomplete taxonomic work, or weak evidence. For various taxa, we provided arguments regarding species distributions, conservation and taxonomic statuses previously lacking in the literature. Two major findings are worth highlighting. First, we unveil the existence of a group of species endemic to both the Cerrado and the Caatinga (i.e., present in both biomes and absent in all other biomes). From the biogeographic point of view, this group, herein referred to as Caatinga-Cerrado endemics, deserves attention as a unit - just as in case of the Caatinga-only and the Cerrado-only endemics. We present preliminary hypotheses on the origin of these three endemic faunas (Cerrado-only, Caatinga-only, and Caatinga-Cerrado endemics). Secondly, we discovered that a substantial portion of the endemic mammalian faunas of the Caatinga and the Cerrado faces risks of extinction that are unrecognized in the highly influential Red List of Threatened Species published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). "Data deficient" is a category that misrepresents the real risks of extinction of these species considering that (a) some of these species are known only from a handful of specimens collected in a single or a few localities long ago; (b) the Cerrado and the Caatinga have been sufficiently sampled to guarantee collection of additional specimens of these species if they were abundant; (c) natural habitats of the Cerrado and the Caatinga have been substantially altered or lost in recent decades. Failures either in the design of the IUCN criteria or in their application to assign categories of extinction risks represent an additional important threat to these endemic faunas because their real risks of extinctions become hidden. It is imperative to correct this situation, particularly considering that these species are associated to habitats that are experiencing fast transformation into areas for agriculture, at an unbearable cost for biodiversity.

Project description:Considering the high biodiversity and conservation concerns of the tropical dry forest, this study aim is to predict and evaluate the potential and current distributions of twelve species of endemic birds which distribute along the western slope of Mexico. The main goal is to evaluate altogether different methods for predicting actual species distribution models (ADMs) of the twelve species including the identification of key environmental potential limiting factors. ADMs for twelve endemic Mexican birds were generated and validated by means of applying: (1) three widely used species niche modeling approaches (ENFA, Garp, and Maxent); (2) two thresholding methods, based on ROC curves and Kappa Index, for transforming continuous models to presence/absence (binary) models; (3) documented habitat-species associations for reducing species potential distribution models (PDMs); and (4) field occurrence data for validating final ADMs. Binary PDMs' predicted areas seemed overestimated, while ADMs looked drastically reduced and fragmented because of the approach taken for eliminating those predicted areas which were documented as unsuitable habitat types for individual species. Results indicated that both thresholding methods generated similar threshold values for species modeled by each of the three species distribution modeling algorithms (SDMAs). A Wilcoxon signed-rank test, however, showed that Kappa values were generally higher than ROC curve for species modeled by ENFA and Maxent, while for Garp models there were no significant differences. Prediction success (e.g., true presences percentage) obtained from field occurrence data revealed a range of 50%-82% among the 12 species. The three modeling approaches applied enabled to test the application of two thresholding methods for transforming continuous to binary (presence/absence) models. The use of documented habitat preferences resulted in drastic reductions and fragmentation of PDMs. However, ADMs predictive success rate, tested using field species occurrence data, varied between 50 and 82%.

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Climate change will reduce suitable Caatinga dry forest habitat for endemic plants with disproportionate impacts on specialized reproductive strategies.

Publications

Climate change will reduce suitable Caatinga dry forest habitat for endemic plants with disproportionate impacts on specialized reproductive strategies.

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