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Rigorous surveillance is necessary for high confidence in end-of-outbreak declarations for Ebola and other infectious diseases.

ABSTRACT: The World Health Organization considers an Ebola outbreak to have ended once 42 days have passed since the last possible exposure to a confirmed case. Benefits of a quick end-of-outbreak declaration, such as reductions in trade/travel restrictions, must be balanced against the chance of flare-ups from undetected residual cases. We show how epidemiological modelling can be used to estimate the surveillance level required for decision-makers to be confident that an outbreak is over. Results from a simple model characterizing an Ebola outbreak suggest that a surveillance sensitivity (i.e. case reporting percentage) of 79% is necessary for 95% confidence that an outbreak is over after 42 days without symptomatic cases. With weaker surveillance, unrecognized transmission may still occur: if the surveillance sensitivity is only 40%, then 62 days must be waited for 95% certainty. By quantifying the certainty in end-of-outbreak declarations, public health decision-makers can plan and communicate more effectively. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This issue is linked with the earlier theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

SUBMITTER: Thompson RN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6558559 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Rigorous surveillance is necessary for high confidence in end-of-outbreak declarations for Ebola and other infectious diseases.

Thompson Robin N RN Morgan Oliver W OW Jalava Katri K

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 20190701 1776

The World Health Organization considers an Ebola outbreak to have ended once 42 days have passed since the last possible exposure to a confirmed case. Benefits of a quick end-of-outbreak declaration, such as reductions in trade/travel restrictions, must be balanced against the chance of flare-ups from undetected residual cases. We show how epidemiological modelling can be used to estimate the surveillance level required for decision-makers to be confident that an outbreak is over. Results from a ...[more]

PMID: 31104606

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Project description:There is growing concern in Sub-Saharan Africa about the spread of the Ebola virus disease (EVD), formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, and the public health burden that it ensues. Since 1976, there have been 885,343 suspected and laboratory confirmed cases of EVD and the disease has claimed 2,512 cases and 932 fatality in West Africa. There are certain requirements that must be met when responding to EVD outbreaks and this process could incur certain challenges. For the purposes of this paper, five have been identified: (i) the deficiency in the development and implementation of surveillance response systems against Ebola and others infectious disease outbreaks in Africa; (ii) the lack of education and knowledge resulting in an EVD outbreak triggering panic, anxiety, psychosocial trauma, isolation and dignity impounding, stigmatisation, community ostracism and resistance to associated socio-ecological and public health consequences; (iii) limited financial resources, human technical capacity and weak community and national health system operational plans for prevention and control responses, practices and management; (iv) inadequate leadership and coordination; and (v) the lack of development of new strategies, tools and approaches, such as improved diagnostics and novel therapies including vaccines which can assist in preventing, controlling and containing Ebola outbreaks as well as the spread of the disease. Hence, there is an urgent need to develop and implement an active early warning alert and surveillance response system for outbreak response and control of emerging infectious diseases. Understanding the unending risks of transmission dynamics and resurgence is essential in implementing rapid effective response interventions tailored to specific local settings and contexts.(i) national and regional inter-sectorial and trans-disciplinary surveillance response systems that include early warnings, as well as critical human resources development, must be quickly adopted by allied ministries and organisations in African countries in epidemic and pandemic responses; (ii) harnessing all stakeholders commitment and advocacy in sustained funding, collaboration, communication and networking including community participation to enhance a coordinated responses, as well as tracking and prompt case management to combat challenges; (iii) more research and development in new drug discovery and vaccines; and (iv) understanding the involvement of global health to promote the establishment of public health surveillance response systems with functions of early warning, as well as monitoring and evaluation in upholding research-action programmes and innovative interventions.

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Rigorous surveillance is necessary for high confidence in end-of-outbreak declarations for Ebola and other infectious diseases.

Publications

Rigorous surveillance is necessary for high confidence in end-of-outbreak declarations for Ebola and other infectious diseases.

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