Dataset Information

A probabilistic census-travel model to predict introduction sites of exotic plant, animal and human pathogens.

ABSTRACT: International travel offers an extensive network for new and recurring human-mediated introductions of exotic infectious pathogens and biota, freeing geographical constraints. We present a predictive census-travel model that integrates international travel with endpoint census data and epidemiological characteristics to predict points of introduction. Population demographics, inbound and outbound travel patterns, and quantification of source strength by country are combined to estimate and rank risk of introduction at user-scalable land parcel areas (e.g. state, county, zip code, census tract, gridded landscapes (1 mi2, 5 km2, etc.)). This risk ranking by parcel can be used to develop pathogen surveillance programmes, and has been incorporated in multiple US state/federal surveillance protocols. The census-travel model is versatile and independent of pathosystems, and applies a risk algorithm to generate risk maps for plant, human and animal contagions at different spatial scales. An interactive, user-friendly interface is available online (https://epi-models.shinyapps.io/Census_Travel/) to provide ease-of-use for regulatory agencies for early detection of high-risk exotics. The interface allows users to parametrize and run the model without knowledge of background code and underpinning data. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

SUBMITTER: Gottwald T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6558561 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A probabilistic census-travel model to predict introduction sites of exotic plant, animal and human pathogens.

Gottwald Tim T Luo Weiqi W Posny Drew D Riley Tim T Louws Frank F

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 20190701 1776

International travel offers an extensive network for new and recurring human-mediated introductions of exotic infectious pathogens and biota, freeing geographical constraints. We present a predictive census-travel model that integrates international travel with endpoint census data and epidemiological characteristics to predict points of introduction. Population demographics, inbound and outbound travel patterns, and quantification of source strength by country are combined to estimate and rank ...[more]

PMID: 31104596

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Project description:BACKGROUND: RNA editing is the process whereby an RNA sequence is modified from the sequence of the corresponding DNA template. In the mitochondria of land plants, some cytidines are converted to uridines before translation. Despite substantial study, the molecular biological mechanism by which C-to-U RNA editing proceeds remains relatively obscure, although several experimental studies have implicated a role for cis-recognition. A highly non-random distribution of nucleotides is observed in the immediate vicinity of edited sites (within 20 nucleotides 5' and 3'), but no precise consensus motif has been identified. RESULTS: Data for analysis were derived from the the complete mitochondrial genomes of Arabidopsis thaliana, Brassica napus, and Oryza sativa; additionally, a combined data set of observations across all three genomes was generated. We selected datasets based on the 20 nucleotides 5' and the 20 nucleotides 3' of edited sites and an equivalently sized and appropriately constructed null-set of non-edited sites. We used tree-based statistical methods and random forests to generate models of C-to-U RNA editing based on the nucleotides surrounding the edited/non-edited sites and on the estimated folding energies of those regions. Tree-based statistical methods based on primary sequence data surrounding edited/non-edited sites and estimates of free energy of folding yield models with optimistic re-substitution-based estimates of approximately 0.71 accuracy, approximately 0.64 sensitivity, and approximately 0.88 specificity. Random forest analysis yielded better models and more exact performance estimates with approximately 0.74 accuracy, approximately 0.72 sensitivity, and approximately 0.81 specificity for the combined observations. CONCLUSIONS: Simple models do moderately well in predicting which cytidines will be edited to uridines, and provide the first quantitative predictive models for RNA edited sites in plant mitochondria. Our analysis shows that the identity of the nucleotide -1 to the edited C and the estimated free energy of folding for a 41 nt region surrounding the edited C are the most important variables that distinguish most edited from non-edited sites. However, the results suggest that primary sequence data and simple free energy of folding calculations alone are insufficient to make highly accurate predictions.

Dataset Information

A probabilistic census-travel model to predict introduction sites of exotic plant, animal and human pathogens.

Publications

A probabilistic census-travel model to predict introduction sites of exotic plant, animal and human pathogens.

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