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Quantifying the hidden costs of imperfect detection for early detection surveillance.

ABSTRACT: The global spread of pathogens poses an increasing threat to health, ecosystems and agriculture worldwide. As early detection of new incursions is key to effective control, new diagnostic tests that can detect pathogen presence shortly after initial infection hold great potential for detection of infection in individual hosts. However, these tests may be too expensive to be implemented at the sampling intensities required for early detection of a new epidemic at the population level. To evaluate the trade-off between earlier and/or more reliable detection and higher deployment costs, we need to consider the impacts of test performance, test cost and pathogen epidemiology. Regarding test performance, the period before new infections can be first detected and the probability of detecting them are of particular importance. We propose a generic framework that can be easily used to evaluate a variety of different detection methods and identify important characteristics of the pathogen and the detection method to consider when planning early detection surveillance. We demonstrate the application of our method using the plant pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in the UK, and find that visual inspec-tion for this pathogen is a more cost-effective strategy for early detection surveillance than an early detection diagnostic test. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

SUBMITTER: Mastin AJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6558562 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quantifying the hidden costs of imperfect detection for early detection surveillance.

Mastin Alexander J AJ van den Bosch Frank F van den Berg Femke F Parnell Stephen R SR

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 20190701 1776

The global spread of pathogens poses an increasing threat to health, ecosystems and agriculture worldwide. As early detection of new incursions is key to effective control, new diagnostic tests that can detect pathogen presence shortly after initial infection hold great potential for detection of infection in individual hosts. However, these tests may be too expensive to be implemented at the sampling intensities required for early detection of a new epidemic at the population level. To evaluate ...[more]

PMID: 31104597

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Project description:Studies on ecological communities often address patterns of species distribution and abundance, but few consider uncertainty in counts of both species and individuals when computing diversity measures.We evaluated the extent to which imperfect detection may influence patterns of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity in ecological communities.We estimated the true abundance of fruit-feeding butterflies sampled in canopy and understory strata in a subtropical forest. We compared the diversity values calculated by observed and estimated abundance data through the hidden diversity framework. This framework evaluates the deviation of observed diversity when compared with diversities derived from estimated true abundances and whether such deviation represents a bias or a noise in the observed diversity pattern.The hidden diversity values differed between strata for all diversity measures, except for functional richness. The taxonomic measure was the only one where we observed an inversion of the most diverse stratum when imperfect detection was included. Regarding phylogenetic and functional measures, the strata showed distinct responses to imperfect detection, despite the tendency to overestimate observed diversity. While the understory showed noise for the phylogenetic measure, since the observed pattern was maintained, the canopy had biased diversity for the functional metric. This bias occurred since no significant differences were found between strata for observed diversity, but rather for estimated diversity, with the canopy being more clustered.We demonstrate that ignore imperfect detection may lead to unrealistic estimates of diversity and hence to erroneous interpretations of patterns and processes that structure biological communities. For fruit-feeding butterflies, according to their phylogenetic position or functional traits, the undetected individuals triggered different responses in the relationship of the diversity measures to the environmental factor. This highlights the importance to evaluate and include the uncertainty in species detectability before calculating biodiversity measures to describe communities.

Project description:BackgroundSurgery risks increase when electricity is accessible but unreliable. During unreliable electricity events and without data on increased risk to patients, medical professionals base their decisions on anecdotal experience. Decisions should be made based on a cost-benefit analysis, but no methodology exists to quantify these risks, the associated hidden costs, nor risk charts to compare alternatives.MethodsTwo methodologies were created to quantify these hidden costs. In the first methodology through research literature and/or measurements, the authors obtained and analyzed a year's worth of hour-by-hour energy failures for four energy healthcare system (EHS) types in four regions (SolarPV in Iraq, Hydroelectric in Ghana, SolarPV+Wind in Bangladesh, and Grid+Diesel in Uganda). In the second methodology, additional patient risks were calculated according to time and duration of electricity failure and medical procedure impact type. Combining these methodologies, the cost from the Value of Statistical Lives lost divided by Energy shortage ($/kWh) is calculated for EHS type and region specifically. The authors define hidden costs due to electricity failure as VSL/E ($/kWh) and compare this to traditional electricity costs (always defined in $/kWh units), including Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE also in $/kWh). This is quantified into a fundamentally new energy healthcare system risk chart (EHS-Risk Chart) based on severity of event (probability of deaths) and likelihood of event (probability of electricity failure).ResultsVSL/E costs were found to be 10 to 10,000 times traditional electricity costs (electric utility or LCOE based). The single power source EHS types have higher risks than hybridized EHS types (especially as power loads increase over time), but all EHS types have additional risks to patients due to electricity failure (between 3 to 105 deaths per 1,000 patients).ConclusionsThese electricity failure risks and hidden healthcare costs can now be calculated and charted to make medical decisions based on a risk chart instead of anecdotal experience. This risk chart connects public health and electricity failure using this adaptable, scalable, and verifiable model.

Dataset Information

Quantifying the hidden costs of imperfect detection for early detection surveillance.

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Quantifying the hidden costs of imperfect detection for early detection surveillance.

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