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New methodologies for the estimation of population vulnerability to diseases: a case study of Lassa fever and Ebola in Nigeria and Sierra Leone.

ABSTRACT: Public health practitioners require measures to evaluate how vulnerable populations are to diseases, especially for zoonoses (i.e. diseases transmitted from animals to humans) given their pandemic potential. These measures would be valuable to support strategic and operational decision making and allocation of resources. Although vulnerability is well defined for natural hazards, for public health threats the concept remains undetermined. Here, we develop new methodologies to: (i) quantify the impact of zoonotic diseases and the capacity of countries to cope with these diseases, and (ii) combine these two measures (impact and capacity) into one overall vulnerability indicator. The adaptive capacity is calculated from estimations of disease mortality, although the method can be adapted for diseases with no or low mortality but high morbidity. As an example, we focused on the vulnerability of Nigeria and Sierra Leone to Lassa Fever and Ebola. We develop a simple analytical form that can be used to estimate vulnerability scores for different spatial units of interest, e.g. countries or regions. We show how some populations can be highly vulnerable despite low impact threats. We finally outline future research to more comprehensively inform vulnerability with the incorporation of relevant factors depicting local heterogeneities (e.g. bio-physical and socio-economic factors). This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

SUBMITTER: Kajero O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6558567 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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New methodologies for the estimation of population vulnerability to diseases: a case study of Lassa fever and Ebola in Nigeria and Sierra Leone.

Kajero Olumayowa O Del Rio Vilas Victor V Wood James L N JLN Lo Iacono Giovanni G

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 20190701 1776

Public health practitioners require measures to evaluate how vulnerable populations are to diseases, especially for zoonoses (i.e. diseases transmitted from animals to humans) given their pandemic potential. These measures would be valuable to support strategic and operational decision making and allocation of resources. Although vulnerability is well defined for natural hazards, for public health threats the concept remains undetermined. Here, we develop new methodologies to: (i) quantify the i ...[more]

PMID: 31104602

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Project description:BackgroundLassa fever (LF), an often-fatal hemorrhagic disease caused by Lassa virus (LASV), is a major public health threat in West Africa. When the violent civil conflict in Sierra Leone (1991 to 2002) ended, an international consortium assisted in restoration of the LF program at Kenema Government Hospital (KGH) in an area with the world's highest incidence of the disease.Methodology/principal findingsClinical and laboratory records of patients presenting to the KGH Lassa Ward in the post-conflict period were organized electronically. Recombinant antigen-based LF immunoassays were used to assess LASV antigenemia and LASV-specific antibodies in patients who met criteria for suspected LF. KGH has been reestablished as a center for LF treatment and research, with over 500 suspected cases now presenting yearly. Higher case fatality rates (CFRs) in LF patients were observed compared to studies conducted prior to the civil conflict. Different criteria for defining LF stages and differences in sensitivity of assays likely account for these differences. The highest incidence of LF in Sierra Leone was observed during the dry season. LF cases were observed in ten of Sierra Leone's thirteen districts, with numerous cases from outside the traditional endemic zone. Deaths in patients presenting with LASV antigenemia were skewed towards individuals less than 29 years of age. Women self-reporting as pregnant were significantly overrepresented among LASV antigenemic patients. The CFR of ribavirin-treated patients presenting early in acute infection was lower than in untreated subjects.Conclusions/significanceLassa fever remains a major public health threat in Sierra Leone. Outreach activities should expand because LF may be more widespread in Sierra Leone than previously recognized. Enhanced case finding to ensure rapid diagnosis and treatment is imperative to reduce mortality. Even with ribavirin treatment, there was a high rate of fatalities underscoring the need to develop more effective and/or supplemental treatments for LF.

Project description:BackgroundThe West African Ebola epidemic of 2013-2016 killed nearly 4,000 Sierra Leoneans and devastated health infrastructure across West Africa. Changes in health seeking behavior (HSB) during the outbreak resulted in dramatic underreporting and substantial declines in hospital presentations to public health facilities, resulting in an estimated tens of thousands of additional maternal, infant, and adult deaths per year. Sierra Leone's Kenema District, a major Ebola hotspot, is also endemic for Lassa fever (LF), another often-fatal hemorrhagic disease. Here we assess the impact of the West African Ebola epidemic on health seeking behaviors with respect to presentations to the Kenema Government Hospital (KGH) Lassa Ward, which serves as the primary health care referral center for suspected Lassa fever cases in the Eastern Province of Sierra Leone.Methodology/principal findingsPresentation frequencies for suspected Lassa fever presenting to KGH or one of its referral centers from 2011-2019 were analyzed to consider the potential impact of the West African Ebola epidemic on presentation patterns. There was a significant decline in suspected LF cases presenting to KGH following the epidemic, and a lower percentage of subjects were admitted to the KGH Lassa Ward following the epidemic. To assess general HSB, a questionnaire was developed and administered to 200 residents from 8 villages in Kenema District. Among 194 completed interviews, 151 (78%) of respondents stated they felt hospitals were safer post-epidemic with no significant differences noted among subjects according to religious background, age, gender, or education. However, 37 (19%) subjects reported decreased attendance at hospitals since the epidemic, which suggests that trust in the healthcare system has not fully rebounded. Cost was identified as a major deterrent to seeking healthcare.Conclusions/significanceAnalysis of patient demographic data suggests that fewer individuals sought care for Lassa fever and other febrile illnesses in Kenema District after the West African Ebola epidemic. Re-establishing trust in health care services will require efforts beyond rebuilding infrastructure and require concerted efforts to rebuild the trust of local residents who may be wary of seeking healthcare post epidemic.

Dataset Information

New methodologies for the estimation of population vulnerability to diseases: a case study of Lassa fever and Ebola in Nigeria and Sierra Leone.

Publications

New methodologies for the estimation of population vulnerability to diseases: a case study of Lassa fever and Ebola in Nigeria and Sierra Leone.

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