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Economic Impact of the 2015 MERS Outbreak on the Republic of Korea's Tourism-Related Industries.

ABSTRACT: The 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in the Republic of Korea (ROK) is an example of an infectious disease outbreak initiated by international travelers to a high-income country. This study was conducted to determine the economic impact of the MERS outbreak on the tourism and travel-related service sectors, including accommodation, food and beverage, and transportation, in the ROK. We projected monthly numbers of noncitizen arrivals and indices of services for 3 travel-related service sectors during and after the MERS outbreak (June 2015 to June 2016) using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models. Tourism losses were estimated by multiplying the monthly differences between projected and actual numbers of noncitizen arrivals by average tourism expenditure per capita. Estimated tourism losses were allocated to travel-related service sectors to understand the distribution of losses across service sectors. The MERS outbreak was correlated with a reduction of 2.1 million noncitizen visitors corresponding with US$2.6 billion in tourism loss for the ROK. Estimated losses in the accommodation, food and beverage service, and transportation sectors associated with the decrease of noncitizen visitors were US$542 million, US$359 million, and US$106 million, respectively. The losses were demonstrated by lower than expected indices of services for the accommodation and food and beverage service sectors in June and July 2015 and for the transportation sector in June 2015. The results support previous findings that public health emergencies due to traveler-associated outbreaks of infectious diseases can cause significant losses to the broader economies of affected countries.

SUBMITTER: Joo H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6560634 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar/Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Economic Impact of the 2015 MERS Outbreak on the Republic of Korea's Tourism-Related Industries.

Joo Heesoo H Maskery Brian A BA Berro Andre D AD Rotz Lisa D LD Lee Yeon-Kyeng YK Brown Clive M CM

Health security 20190301 2

The 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in the Republic of Korea (ROK) is an example of an infectious disease outbreak initiated by international travelers to a high-income country. This study was conducted to determine the economic impact of the MERS outbreak on the tourism and travel-related service sectors, including accommodation, food and beverage, and transportation, in the ROK. We projected monthly numbers of noncitizen arrivals and indices of services for 3 travel-relat ...[more]

PMID: 30969152

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Project description:Background. Since the emergence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, more than 1,300 laboratory confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infections have been reported in Asia, North Africa, and Europe by July 2015. The recent MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak in South Korea quickly became the second largest such outbreak with 186 total cases and 36 deaths in a little more than one month, second only to Saudi Arabia in country-specific number of reported cases. Methods. We use a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to trace the temporal course of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak. We pinpoint its outbreak turning point and its transmissibility via basic reproduction number R 0 in order to ascertain the occurrence of this nosocomial outbreak and how it was quickly brought under control. Results. The estimated outbreak turning point of ti = 23.3 days (95% CI [22.6-24.0]), or 23-24 days after the onset date of the index case on May 11, pinpoints June 3-4 as the time of the turning point or the peak incidence for this outbreak by onset date. R 0 is estimated to range between 7.0 and 19.3. Discussion and Conclusion. The turning point of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak occurred around May 27-29, when control measures were quickly implemented after laboratory confirmation of the first cluster of nosocomial infections by the index patient. Furthermore, transmissibility of MERS-CoV in the South Korea outbreak was significantly higher than those reported from past MERS-CoV outbreaks in the Middle East, which is attributable to the nosocomial nature of this outbreak. Our estimate of R 0 for the South Korea MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak further highlights the importance and the risk involved in cluster infections and superspreading events in crowded settings such as hospitals. Similar to the 2003 SARS epidemic, outbreaks of infectious diseases with low community transmissibility like MERS-CoV could still occur initially with large clusters of nosocomial infections, but can be quickly and effectively controlled with timely intervention measures.

Dataset Information

Economic Impact of the 2015 MERS Outbreak on the Republic of Korea's Tourism-Related Industries.

Publications

Economic Impact of the 2015 MERS Outbreak on the Republic of Korea's Tourism-Related Industries.

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