Dataset Information

Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. Lopez (Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future.

ABSTRACT: Climate change has altered the global distribution of many species. Accordingly, we have assessed here the potential shift in the distribution of Gypsophila bermejoi G. López under distinct scenarios of future climate change, this being a species endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. For strict gypsophiles, climatic changes affecting their potential area of distribution could be critical if the new range is not overlapped with suitable soils. Thus, the narrow bioclimatic niche and the endemic nature of this plant could make this species particularly vulnerable to climate change. We used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method to study the potential distribution of this taxon under four different scenarios of climate change, pin-pointing relevant changes in the potential distribution of this plant and enabling possible future areas of refuge to be assessed. Such scenarios are defined according to four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [, which represent different trends in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As a result, we predict notable changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi, and the overlap between soil and bioclimatic suitability would be affected. We also used a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to model the bioclimatic niche of this species, comparing it with that of its parental taxa. The evolution of bioclimatic suitability was assessed at the current locations of G. bermejoi and as this plant is a strict gypsophile, we generated suitability maps for sites with gypsum soils. Ultimately, this study identifies relevant changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi under specific climatic scenarios, observing remarkable differences in the outcomes of the different climate change scenarios. Interestingly, in some scenarios the bioclimatic suitability of G. bermejoi will be enhanced at many locations and even in the worst scenario some possible refuge areas were identified. G. bermejoi behaves more like a hardy survivor than as early victim.

SUBMITTER: de Luis M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6564006 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. López (Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future.

de Luis Miguel M Álvarez-Jiménez Julio J Martínez Labarga Juan Manuel JM Bartolomé Carmen C

PloS one 20190613 6

Climate change has altered the global distribution of many species. Accordingly, we have assessed here the potential shift in the distribution of Gypsophila bermejoi G. López under distinct scenarios of future climate change, this being a species endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. For strict gypsophiles, climatic changes affecting their potential area of distribution could be critical if the new range is not overlapped with suitable soils. Thus, the narrow bioclimatic niche and the endemic nature ...[more]

PMID: 31194783

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Project description:Gypsophila bermejoi G. López is an allopolyploid species derived from the parental G. struthium L. subsp. struthium and G. tomentosa L. All these plants are gypsophytes endemic to the Iberian Peninsula of particular ecological, evolutionary and biochemical interest. In this study, we present evidence of a possible repression on the process of G. bermejoi speciation by climatic factors. We modelled the ecological niches of the three taxa considered here using a maximum entropy approach and employing a series of bioclimatic variables. Subsequently, we projected these models onto the geographical space of the Iberian Peninsula in the present age and at two past ages: the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene period. Furthermore, we compared these niches using the statistical method devised by Warren to calculate their degree of overlap. We also evaluated the evolution of the bioclimatic habitat suitability at those sites were the soil favors the growth of these species. Both the maximum entropy model and the degree of overlap indicated that the ecological behavior of the hybrid differs notably from that of the parental species. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the two parental species appear to take refuge in the western coastal strip of the Peninsula, a region in which there are virtually no sites where G. bermejoi could potentially be found. However, in the mid-Holocene period the suitability of G. bermejoi to sites with favorable soils shifts from almost null to a strong adaptation, a clear change in this tendency. These results suggest that the ecological niches of hybrid allopolyploids can be considerably different to those of their parental species, which may have evolutionary and ecologically relevant consequences. The data obtained indicate that certain bioclimatic variables may possibly repress the processes by which new species are formed. The difference in the ecological niche of G. bermejoi with respect to its parental species prevented it from prospering during the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the climatic change in the mid-Holocene period released this block and as such, it permitted the new species to establish itself. Accordingly, we favor a recent origin of the current populations of G. bermejoi.

Project description:IntroductionClimate change has been driving warming trends and changes in precipitation patterns and regimes throughout Europe. Future projections indicate a continuation of these trends in the next decades. This situation is challenging the sustainability of viniculture and, thus, significant efforts towards adaptation should be then carried out by local winegrowers.MethodEcological Niche Models were built, using the ensemble modelling approach, to estimate the bioclimatic suitability of four main wine-producing European countries, namely France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, in the recent past (1989-2005), for the cultivation of twelve Portuguese grape varieties. The models were then used to project the bioclimatic suitability to two future periods (2021- 2050 and 2051-2080) to better understand the potential shifts related to climate change (modeled after Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). The models were obtained with the modeling platform BIOMOD2, using four bioclimatic indices, namely the "Huglin Index", the "Cool Night index", the "Growing Season Precipitation index", and the "Temperature Range during Ripening index" as predictor variables, as well as the current locations of the chosen grape varieties in Portugal.ResultsAll models performed with high statistical accuracy (AUC > 0.9) and were able to discriminate several suitable bioclimatic areas for the different grape varieties, in and around where they are currently located but also in other parts of the study area. The distribution of the bioclimatic suitability changed, however, when looking at future projections. For both climatic scenarios, projected bioclimatic suitability suffered a considerable shift to the north of Spain and France. In some cases, bioclimatic suitability also moved towards areas of higher elevation. Portugal and Italy barely retained any of the initially projected varietal areas. These shifts were mainly due to the overall rise in thermal accumulation and lower accumulated precipitation in the southern regions projected for the future.ConclusionEnsemble models of Ecological Niche Models were shown to be valid tools for winegrowers who want to adapt to a changing climate. The long-term sustainability of viniculture in southern Europe will most likely have to go through a process of mitigation of the effects of increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation.

Project description:Several species of the Gypsophila genus are endemic to the Iberian Peninsula, including gypsophytes of particular ecological, evolutionary and biochemical interest, and taxa that have undergone both sympatric and allopatric genetic differentiation. The niche shift among these taxa has been assessed using ecological niche modelling and ordination techniques, adopting a niche overlap approach to compare the similarity and equivalency of the ecological niches. We used the Maximum Entropy method to study the potential distribution of these taxa in different eras: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid Holocene and the current conditions. We present evidence of niche shift during the speciation of G. bermejoi, with a strong niche overlap between the parental taxa (G. struthium subsp. struthium and G. tomentosa), yet both overlap much more weakly with the hybrid species. This phenomenon may be explained by genetic and epigenetic interactions, and it has been described in other species. We also studied the sister subspecies G. struthium subsp. struthium and G. struthium subsp. hispanica, with mostly allopatric distributions and with the Iberian System mountain range acting as a geographical barrier. The Iberian System and other mountain ranges may have favored differences in the climatic conditions on either side of the mountain range, which is consistent with an incipient process of bioclimatic ecological speciation. These results seem to indicate that niche shift can occur over very different timespans. In the case of G. bermejoi, speciation may have produced significant niche shifting in one or two generations due to its alloploid nature. By contrast, G. struthium subsp. struthium and G. struthium subsp. hispanica seem to have undergone a more gradual process of allopatric genetic differentiation driven by bioclimatic factors. Both these processes are relatively recent and they will have been strongly influenced by the climate change at the end of LGM.

Dataset Information

Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. Lopez (Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future.

Publications

Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. López (Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future.

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