Dataset Information

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia.

ABSTRACT: The Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses are arboviruses predominantly transmitted to humans through the bite of the female mosquito Aedes aegypti. Currently, the vector represents a potential epidemiological risk in several Latin American and Pacific countries. However, little is known about the geographical distribution and bioclimatic suitability of this mosquito in the projected climate change scenarios in Colombia. Using a species distribution model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) based on presence-only records obtained from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), land elevation obtained from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), we produced environmental suitability maps of this mosquito vector for present and future geographic distribution. The future distribution were constructed based on the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) for the years 2050 and 2070, projected according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For the current conditions, Colombia has ~140,612.8 square km of areas with the possible presence of the vector; however, for the future, this will be reduced by more than 30%. For the future conditions, the suitable areas for A. aegypti decreased compared to the present, mainly for the year 2070 under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, however, the probability of mosquito occurrence increases in some departments of Colombia. Areas susceptible to the presence of A. aegypti are affected by climate change. The Caribbean and Andean regions have a high probability of mosquito distribution; therefore, control and epidemiological surveillance are required in these areas. The results can serve as an input to define preventive and control measures, especially in areas with a higher risk of contracting the virus.

SUBMITTER: Portilla Cabrera CV

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6940634 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for <i>Aedes aegypti</i> under climate change scenarios in Colombia.

Portilla Cabrera Cristiam Victoriano CV Selvaraj John Josephraj JJ

Heliyon 20191231 1

The Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses are arboviruses predominantly transmitted to humans through the bite of the female mosquito <i>Aedes aegypti</i>. Currently, the vector represents a potential epidemiological risk in several Latin American and Pacific countries. However, little is known about the geographical distribution and bioclimatic suitability of this mosquito in the projected climate change scenarios in Colombia. Using a species distribution model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) based ...[more]

PMID: 31909268

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Project description:IntroductionClimate change has been driving warming trends and changes in precipitation patterns and regimes throughout Europe. Future projections indicate a continuation of these trends in the next decades. This situation is challenging the sustainability of viniculture and, thus, significant efforts towards adaptation should be then carried out by local winegrowers.MethodEcological Niche Models were built, using the ensemble modelling approach, to estimate the bioclimatic suitability of four main wine-producing European countries, namely France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, in the recent past (1989-2005), for the cultivation of twelve Portuguese grape varieties. The models were then used to project the bioclimatic suitability to two future periods (2021- 2050 and 2051-2080) to better understand the potential shifts related to climate change (modeled after Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). The models were obtained with the modeling platform BIOMOD2, using four bioclimatic indices, namely the "Huglin Index", the "Cool Night index", the "Growing Season Precipitation index", and the "Temperature Range during Ripening index" as predictor variables, as well as the current locations of the chosen grape varieties in Portugal.ResultsAll models performed with high statistical accuracy (AUC > 0.9) and were able to discriminate several suitable bioclimatic areas for the different grape varieties, in and around where they are currently located but also in other parts of the study area. The distribution of the bioclimatic suitability changed, however, when looking at future projections. For both climatic scenarios, projected bioclimatic suitability suffered a considerable shift to the north of Spain and France. In some cases, bioclimatic suitability also moved towards areas of higher elevation. Portugal and Italy barely retained any of the initially projected varietal areas. These shifts were mainly due to the overall rise in thermal accumulation and lower accumulated precipitation in the southern regions projected for the future.ConclusionEnsemble models of Ecological Niche Models were shown to be valid tools for winegrowers who want to adapt to a changing climate. The long-term sustainability of viniculture in southern Europe will most likely have to go through a process of mitigation of the effects of increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation.

Project description:Climate change has altered the global distribution of many species. Accordingly, we have assessed here the potential shift in the distribution of Gypsophila bermejoi G. López under distinct scenarios of future climate change, this being a species endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. For strict gypsophiles, climatic changes affecting their potential area of distribution could be critical if the new range is not overlapped with suitable soils. Thus, the narrow bioclimatic niche and the endemic nature of this plant could make this species particularly vulnerable to climate change. We used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method to study the potential distribution of this taxon under four different scenarios of climate change, pin-pointing relevant changes in the potential distribution of this plant and enabling possible future areas of refuge to be assessed. Such scenarios are defined according to four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [, which represent different trends in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As a result, we predict notable changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi, and the overlap between soil and bioclimatic suitability would be affected. We also used a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to model the bioclimatic niche of this species, comparing it with that of its parental taxa. The evolution of bioclimatic suitability was assessed at the current locations of G. bermejoi and as this plant is a strict gypsophile, we generated suitability maps for sites with gypsum soils. Ultimately, this study identifies relevant changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi under specific climatic scenarios, observing remarkable differences in the outcomes of the different climate change scenarios. Interestingly, in some scenarios the bioclimatic suitability of G. bermejoi will be enhanced at many locations and even in the worst scenario some possible refuge areas were identified. G. bermejoi behaves more like a hardy survivor than as early victim.

Project description:Background: Aedes aegypti is the principal vector for several important arbovirus diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika. While recent empirical research has attempted to identify the current global distribution of the vector, the seasonal, and longer-term dynamics of the mosquito in response to trends in climate, population, and economic development over the twentieth and the twenty-first century remains to be elucidated. Methods: In this study, we use a process-based mathematical model to estimate global vector distribution and abundance. The model is based on the lifecycle of the vector and its dependence on climate, and the model sensitivity to socio-economic development is tested. Model parameters were generally empirically based, and the model was calibrated to global databases and time series of occurrence and abundance records. Climate data on temperature and rainfall were taken from CRU TS3.25 (1901-2015) and five global circulation models (CMIP5; 2006-2099) forced by a high-end (RCP8.5) and a low-end (RCP2.6) emission scenario. Socio-economic data on global GDP and human population density were from ISIMIP (1950-2099). Findings: The change in the potential of global abundance in A. aegypti over the last century up to today is estimated to be an increase of 9.5% globally and a further increase of 20 or 30% by the end of this century under a low compared to a high carbon emission future, respectively. The largest increase has occurred in the last two decades, indicating a tipping point in climate-driven global abundance which will be stabilized at the earliest in the mid-twenty-first century. The realized abundance is estimated to be sensitive to socioeconomic development. Interpretation: Our data indicate that climate change mitigation, i.e., following the Paris Agreement, could considerably help in suppressing risks of increased abundance and emergence of A. aegypti globally in the second half of the twenty-first century.

Project description:In Colombia Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti is the main vector of urban arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. This urban mosquito has a well-established capacity to develop insecticide resistance to different types of insecticides (pyrethroids, organochlorides, organophosphates), using multiple resistance mechanisms. An understanding of ongoing resistance mechanisms is critical to determining the activities of vector control programs. In order to identify the biochemical and molecular mechanisms associated with pyrethroid resistance in Colombia, three laboratory-selected strains resistant to DDT, Propoxur and lambdacyhalothrin, and 7 field-collected strains were evaluated. CDC bioassays were performed to measure the susceptibility status to pyrethroid type I (permethrin) and II (deltamethrin and lambdacyhalothrin), and potential cross-resistance to different types of insecticides; organochlorine (DDT), carbamates (propoxur) and organophosphates (malathion). The enzymatic activity of esterases, glutathione S-transferases (GST) and P450 monooxygenases were biochemically determined. Frequencies of kdr mutations Val1016Ile and Phe1534cys were determined through real-time PCR. The Rockefeller strain of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti was used as the susceptible control. The laboratory-selected strains "propoxur" and "lambdacyhalothrin" and one field population (Medellín (BF) F2 were resistant to all evaluated pyrethroids. Six of the seven field populations as well as the laboratory- selected "DDT" strain were resistant to permethrin. All the evaluated strains were resistant to DDT. Cross-resistance between lambdacyhalothrin and propoxur was observed in the laboratory-selected strains; however, all field-collected strains were susceptible to propoxur and no evidence of malathion resistance was found. The main biochemical mechanism for resistance observed in the field-collected strains was related to the enzyme GST. Further, the frequencies of kdr mutations alleles associated with insecticide resistance were high and ranged from 0.02 to 0.72 for Ile1016 and from 0.44 to 0.99 for Cys1534. Strains with high frequencies of both kdr mutations were resistant to both type I and II pyrethroids. These results suggest that Ae. aegypti from Colombia have developed multiple resistance mechanisms associated with pyrethroid resistance; therefore a resistance management strategy against these field populations of Ae. Aegypti, incorporating these findings is strongly recommended.

Dataset Information

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia.

Publications

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for <i>Aedes aegypti</i> under climate change scenarios in Colombia.

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