Dataset Information

Surrogate threshold effect based on a meta-analysis for the predictive value of progression-free survival for overall survival in hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

Clinical trials investigating therapies for metastatic breast cancer (mBC) generally use progression-free survival (PFS) as primary endpoint, which is not accepted as patient-relevant outcome within the German benefit assessment. Hence a validation of PFS as surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) is needed, e.g., in the indication of HR+, HER2-negative mBC.

Methods

A systematic search was conducted. RCT were included if at least one study arm investigated fulvestrant, letrozole, tamoxifen, exemestane, or anastrozole. Additionally, hazard ratios reported for OS/PFS including confidence interval or standard error were mandatory. Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated to estimate the relation of surrogate endpoint PFS and patient-relevant outcome OS as well as the surrogate threshold effect (STE) which is used to determine thresholds for the estimate of the surrogate endpoint.

Results

16 studies with 5324 patients in total were included in the analyses. The correlation between hazard ratios of PFS and OS was statistically significant (r?=?0.72, 95% CI 0.35-0.90) representing a positive linear relationship. STE analysis was applied. The meta-regression model revealed a STE for HR_PFS of 0.60 and sensitivity analyses underlined robustness of the results.

Conclusions

Based on the derived STE, it is possible to draw conclusions on a significant effect in OS for a hypothetical trial demonstrating an upper confidence limit of HR_PFS?

SUBMITTER: Lux MP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6586722 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Surrogate threshold effect based on a meta-analysis for the predictive value of progression-free survival for overall survival in hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer.

Lux Michael Patrick MP Böhme Sarah S Hücherig Stephanie S Jeratsch Ulli U Kürschner Niclas N Lüftner Diana D

Breast cancer research and treatment 20190507 3

<h4>Purpose</h4>Clinical trials investigating therapies for metastatic breast cancer (mBC) generally use progression-free survival (PFS) as primary endpoint, which is not accepted as patient-relevant outcome within the German benefit assessment. Hence a validation of PFS as surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) is needed, e.g., in the indication of HR+, HER2-negative mBC.<h4>Methods</h4>A systematic search was conducted. RCT were included if at least one study arm investigated fulvestrant ...[more]

PMID: 31065873

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Project description:We reviewed randomized phase II/III trials comparing first- or second-line endocrine therapy as monotherapy or in combination with targeted therapies for treatment of postmenopausal patients with hormone receptor-positive advanced breast cancer. First-line was defined as treatment for endocrine therapy-naïve advanced breast cancer or advanced disease treated with endocrine therapy in the adjuvant/neoadjuvant setting. Second-line was defined as endocrine therapy for advanced breast cancer following disease progression on endocrine therapy for advanced disease. Publications reporting progression-free survival (PFS)/time to progression (TTP) or overall survival (OS) for FDA-approved agents anastrozole, exemestane, fulvestrant 250 mg, fulvestrant 500 mg, letrozole (0.5 and 2.5 mg), megestrol acetate, and tamoxifen as monotherapy, or in combination with everolimus, palbociclib or ribociclib, were assessed. First-line monotherapy with anastrozole, fulvestrant 500 mg or letrozole 2.5 mg significantly improved PFS/TTP versus comparator endocrine therapy; however, only fulvestrant 500 mg improved OS. For endocrine therapy in combination with targeted therapies, palbociclib plus letrozole 2.5 mg, and ribociclib plus letrozole 2.5 mg significantly improved PFS versus letrozole 2.5 mg alone first-line. For second-line monotherapies, exemestane, fulvestrant 500 mg and letrozole 2.5 mg significantly improved PFS/TTP versus comparator endocrine therapy; only fulvestrant 500 mg and letrozole 2.5 mg improved OS. For second-line combination therapies, everolimus plus exemestane, and palbociclib plus fulvestrant 500 mg, improved PFS versus endocrine therapy alone. In both first- and second-line settings, aromatase inhibitors demonstrated PFS benefits versus comparator endocrine therapy; however, fulvestrant 500 mg was the only endocrine therapy included in our review to show both PFS and OS advantages compared with other endocrine therapies. Targeted agents in combination with endocrine therapy have demonstrated PFS improvements both first- and second-line; OS data are awaited.

Project description:BackgroundRecent phase 3 trials have shown an overall survival benefit in metastatic melanoma. We aimed to assess whether progression-free survival (PFS) could be regarded as a reliable surrogate for overall survival through a meta-analysis of randomised trials.MethodsWe systematically reviewed randomised trials comparing treatment regimens in metastatic melanoma that included dacarbazine as the control arm, and which reported both PFS and overall survival with a standard hazard ratio (HR). We correlated HRs for overall survival and PFS, weighted by sample size or by precision of the HR estimate, assuming fixed and random effects. We did sensitivity analyses according to presence of crossover, trial size, and dacarbazine dose.FindingsAfter screening 1649 reports and meeting abstracts published before Sept 8, 2013, we identified 12 eligible randomised trials that enrolled 4416 patients with metastatic melanoma. Irrespective of weighting strategy, we noted a strong correlation between the treatment effects for PFS and overall survival, which seemed independent of treatment type. Pearson correlation coefficients were 0·71 (95% CI 0·29-0·90) with a random-effects assumption, 0·85 (0·59-0·95) with a fixed-effects assumption, and 0·89 (0·68-0·97) with sample-size weighting. For nine trials without crossover, the correlation coefficient was 0·96 (0·81-0·99), which decreased to 0·93 (0·74-0·98) when two additional trials with less than 50% crossover were included. Inclusion of mature follow-up data after at least 50% crossover (in vemurafenib and dabrafenib phase 3 trials) weakened the PFS to overall survival correlation (0·55, 0·03-0·84). Inclusion of trials with no or little crossover with the random-effects assumption yielded a conservative statement of the PFS to overall survival correlation of 0·85 (0·51-0·96).InterpretationPFS can be regarded as a robust surrogate for overall survival in dacarbazine-controlled randomised trials of metastatic melanoma; we postulate that this association will hold as treatment standards evolve and are adopted as the control arm in future trials.FundingNone.

Dataset Information

Surrogate threshold effect based on a meta-analysis for the predictive value of progression-free survival for overall survival in hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer.

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Surrogate threshold effect based on a meta-analysis for the predictive value of progression-free survival for overall survival in hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer.

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