Multivariate temporal modeling of crime with dynamic linear models.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Garton N
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6608923 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Cellular decision making in differentiation, proliferation, or cell death is mediated by molecular signaling processes, which control the regulation and expression of genes. Vice versa, the expression of genes can trigger the activity of signaling pathways. We introduce and describe a statistical method called Dynamic Nested Effects Model (D-NEM) for analyzing the temporal interplay of cell signaling and gene expression. D-NEMs are Bayesian models of signal propagation in a network. They decompose observed time delays of multiple step signaling processes into single steps. Time delays are assumed to be exponentially distributed. Rate constants of signal propagation are model parameters, whose joint posterior distribution is assessed via Gibbs sampling. They hold information on the interplay of different forms of biological signal propagation. Molecular signaling in the cytoplasm acts at high rates, direct signal propagation via transcription and translation act at intermediate rates, while secondary effects operate at low rates. D-NEMs allow the dissection of biological processes into signaling and expression events, and analysis of cellular signal flow. An application of D-NEMs to embryonic stem cell development in mice reveals a feed-forward loop dominated network, which stabilizes the differentiated state of cells and points to Nanog as the key sensitizer of stem cells for differentiation stimuli.
| S-EPMC2672479 | biostudies-other
Project description:BACKGROUND:Renal transplant patients are mandated to have continuous assessment of their kidney function over time to monitor disease progression determined by changes in blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine (Cr), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Multivariate analysis of these outcomes that aims at identifying the differential factors that affect disease progression is of great clinical significance. Thus our study aims at demonstrating the application of different joint modeling approaches with random coefficients on a cohort of renal transplant patients and presenting a comparison of their performance through a pseudo-simulation study. The objective of this comparison is to identify the model with best performance and to determine whether accuracy compensates for complexity in the different multivariate joint models. METHODS AND RESULTS:We propose a novel application of multivariate Generalized Linear Mixed Models (mGLMM) to analyze multiple longitudinal kidney function outcomes collected over 3 years on a cohort of 110 renal transplantation patients. The correlated outcomes BUN, Cr, and eGFR and the effect of various covariates such patient's gender, age and race on these markers was determined holistically using different mGLMMs. The performance of the various mGLMMs that encompass shared random intercept (SHRI), shared random intercept and slope (SHRIS), separate random intercept (SPRI) and separate random intercept and slope (SPRIS) was assessed to identify the one that has the best fit and most accurate estimates. A bootstrap pseudo-simulation study was conducted to gauge the tradeoff between the complexity and accuracy of the models. Accuracy was determined using two measures; the mean of the differences between the estimates of the bootstrapped datasets and the true beta obtained from the application of each model on the renal dataset, and the mean of the square of these differences. The results showed that SPRI provided most accurate estimates and did not exhibit any computational or convergence problem. CONCLUSION:Higher accuracy was demonstrated when the level of complexity increased from shared random coefficient models to the separate random coefficient alternatives with SPRI showing to have the best fit and most accurate estimates.
| S-EPMC4467678 | biostudies-other
Project description:Both linear mixed models (LMMs) and sparse regression models are widely used in genetics applications, including, recently, polygenic modeling in genome-wide association studies. These two approaches make very different assumptions, so are expected to perform well in different situations. However, in practice, for a given dataset one typically does not know which assumptions will be more accurate. Motivated by this, we consider a hybrid of the two, which we refer to as a "Bayesian sparse linear mixed model" (BSLMM) that includes both these models as special cases. We address several key computational and statistical issues that arise when applying BSLMM, including appropriate prior specification for the hyper-parameters and a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference. We apply BSLMM and compare it with other methods for two polygenic modeling applications: estimating the proportion of variance in phenotypes explained (PVE) by available genotypes, and phenotype (or breeding value) prediction. For PVE estimation, we demonstrate that BSLMM combines the advantages of both standard LMMs and sparse regression modeling. For phenotype prediction it considerably outperforms either of the other two methods, as well as several other large-scale regression methods previously suggested for this problem. Software implementing our method is freely available from http://stephenslab.uchicago.edu/software.html.
| S-EPMC3567190 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In genetics, pleiotropy describes the genetic effect of a single gene on multiple phenotypic traits. A common approach is to analyze the phenotypic traits separately using univariate analyses and combine the test results through multiple comparisons. This approach may lead to low power. Multivariate functional linear models are developed to connect genetic variant data to multiple quantitative traits adjusting for covariates for a unified analysis. Three types of approximate F-distribution tests based on Pillai-Bartlett trace, Hotelling-Lawley trace, and Wilks's Lambda are introduced to test for association between multiple quantitative traits and multiple genetic variants in one genetic region. The approximate F-distribution tests provide much more significant results than those of F-tests of univariate analysis and optimal sequence kernel association test (SKAT-O). Extensive simulations were performed to evaluate the false positive rates and power performance of the proposed models and tests. We show that the approximate F-distribution tests control the type I error rates very well. Overall, simultaneous analysis of multiple traits can increase power performance compared to an individual test of each trait. The proposed methods were applied to analyze (1) four lipid traits in eight European cohorts, and (2) three biochemical traits in the Trinity Students Study. The approximate F-distribution tests provide much more significant results than those of F-tests of univariate analysis and SKAT-O for the three biochemical traits. The approximate F-distribution tests of the proposed functional linear models are more sensitive than those of the traditional multivariate linear models that in turn are more sensitive than SKAT-O in the univariate case. The analysis of the four lipid traits and the three biochemical traits detects more association than SKAT-O in the univariate case.
| S-EPMC4443751 | biostudies-other
Project description:Investigating whether metabolites regulate the co-expression of a predefined gene module is one of the relevant questions posed in the integrative analysis of metabolomic and transcriptomic data. This article concerns the integrative analysis of the two high-dimensional datasets by means of multivariate models and statistical tests for the dependence between metabolites and the co-expression of a gene module. The general linear model (GLM) for correlated data that we propose models the dependence between adjusted gene expression values through a block-diagonal variance-covariance structure formed by metabolic-subset specific general variance-covariance blocks. Performance of statistical tests for the inference of conditional co-expression are evaluated through a simulation study. The proposed methodology is applied to the gene expression data of the previously characterized lipid-leukocyte module. Our results show that the GLM approach improves on a previous approach by being less prone to the detection of spurious conditional co-expression.
| S-EPMC4769021 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Scleroderma is a serious chronic autoimmune disease in which a patient’s disease state manifests in several irregularly spaced longitudinal measures of lung, heart, skin, and other organ systems. Threshold crossings of pulmonary and cardiac measures indicate potentially life-threatening key clinical events including interstitial lung disease (ILD), cardiomyopathy, and pulmonary hypertension (PH). The statistical challenge is to accurately and precisely predict these events by using all of the clinical history for the patient at hand and for a reference population of patients. Methods We use a Bayesian mixed model approach to simultaneously characterize each individual’s future trajectories for several biomarkers. We estimate this model using a large population of patients from the Johns Hopkins Scleroderma Center Research Registry. The joint probabilities of critical lung and heart events are then calculated as a byproduct of the mixed model. Results The performance of this approach is substantially better than standard, more common alternatives. In order to predict an individual’s risks in a clinical setting, we also develop a cross-validated, sequential prediction (CVSP) algorithm. As additional data are observed during a patient’s visit, the algorithm sequentially produces updated predictions for the future longitudinal trajectories and for ILD, cardiomyopathy, and PH. The updated prediction distributions with little additional computing, for example within an electronic health record (EHR). Conclusions This method that generates real-time personalized risk estimates has been implemented within the electronic health record system for clinical testing. To our knowledge, this work represents the first approach to compute personalized risk estimates for multiple scleroderma complications. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01439-y.
| S-EPMC8590788 | biostudies-literature
Project description:It is well recognised that animal and plant pathogens form complex ecological communities of interacting organisms within their hosts, and there is growing interest in the health implications of such pathogen interactions. Although community ecology approaches have been used to identify pathogen interactions at the within-host scale, methodologies enabling robust identification of interactions from population-scale data such as that available from health authorities are lacking. To address this gap, we developed a statistical framework that jointly identifies interactions between multiple viruses from contemporaneous non-stationary infection time series. Our conceptual approach is derived from a Bayesian multivariate disease mapping framework. Importantly, our approach captures within- and between-year dependencies in infection risk while controlling for confounding factors such as seasonality, demographics and infection frequencies, allowing genuine pathogen interactions to be distinguished from simple correlations. We validated our framework using a broad range of synthetic data. We then applied it to diagnostic data available for five respiratory viruses co-circulating in a major urban population between 2005 and 2013: adenovirus, human coronavirus, human metapneumovirus, influenza B virus and respiratory syncytial virus. We found positive and negative covariances indicative of epidemiological interactions among specific virus pairs. This statistical framework enables a community ecology perspective to be applied to infectious disease epidemiology with important utility for public health planning and preparedness.
| S-EPMC6934324 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Item context effects refer to the impact of features of a test on an examinee's item responses. These effects cannot be explained by the abilities measured by the test. Investigations typically focus on only a single type of item context effects, such as item position effects, or mode effects, thereby ignoring the fact that different item context effects might operate simultaneously. In this study, two different types of context effects were modeled simultaneously drawing on data from an item calibration study of a multidimensional computerized test (N = 1,632) assessing student competencies in mathematics, science, and reading. We present a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) parameterization of the multidimensional Rasch model including item position effects (distinguishing between within-block position effects and block position effects), domain order effects, and the interactions between them. Results show that both types of context effects played a role, and that the moderating effect of domain orders was very strong. The findings have direct consequences for planning and applying mixed domain assessment designs.
| S-EPMC6397884 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To analyze next-generation sequencing data, multivariate functional linear models are developed for a meta-analysis of multiple studies to connect genetic variant data to multiple quantitative traits adjusting for covariates. The goal is to take the advantage of both meta-analysis and pleiotropic analysis in order to improve power and to carry out a unified association analysis of multiple studies and multiple traits of complex disorders. Three types of approximate F -distributions based on Pillai-Bartlett trace, Hotelling-Lawley trace, and Wilks's Lambda are introduced to test for association between multiple quantitative traits and multiple genetic variants. Simulation analysis is performed to evaluate false-positive rates and power of the proposed tests. The proposed methods are applied to analyze lipid traits in eight European cohorts. It is shown that it is more advantageous to perform multivariate analysis than univariate analysis in general, and it is more advantageous to perform meta-analysis of multiple studies instead of analyzing the individual studies separately. The proposed models require individual observations. The value of the current paper can be seen at least for two reasons: (a) the proposed methods can be applied to studies that have individual genotype data; (b) the proposed methods can be used as a criterion for future work that uses summary statistics to build test statistics to meta-analyze the data.
| S-EPMC5315507 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In biomedical research, a health effect is frequently associated with protracted exposures of varying intensity sustained in the past. The main complexity of modeling and interpreting such phenomena lies in the additional temporal dimension needed to express the association, as the risk depends on both intensity and timing of past exposures. This type of dependency is defined here as exposure-lag-response association. In this contribution, I illustrate a general statistical framework for such associations, established through the extension of distributed lag non-linear models, originally developed in time series analysis. This modeling class is based on the definition of a cross-basis, obtained by the combination of two functions to flexibly model linear or nonlinear exposure-responses and the lag structure of the relationship, respectively. The methodology is illustrated with an example application to cohort data and validated through a simulation study. This modeling framework generalizes to various study designs and regression models, and can be applied to study the health effects of protracted exposures to environmental factors, drugs or carcinogenic agents, among others.
| S-EPMC4098103 | biostudies-literature