Dataset Information

A Statistical Timetable for the Sub-2-Hour Marathon.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Breaking the sub-2-h marathon in an official event has attracted growing interest in recent times with commercial and international momentum building. Here it is shown that predicting how likely and when the sub-2-h barrier will be broken are statistically coupled considerations.

Methods

Using a nonlinear limiting exponential model and calculating prediction intervals, a statistical timetable for the sub-2-h event is produced over a range of likelihoods.

Results

At the benchmark odds level (1 in 10, or 10% likely), the expected sub-2-h arrival time is found to be May 2032. By estimating the model for male and female world record progressions, I find that limiting marathon times for males and females (at 1 in 10) are 1 h 58 min 5 s and 2 h 5 min 31 s, respectively. These times equate to a performance gap of 2.9% and 8.6%, respectively. The male estimate has remarkable similarity (~7 s) to Joyner's 1991 limiting human physiological estimate. Finally, I provide an estimate of the equivalent "sub-2-h" threshold for females and argue that a threshold of 130 min ("sub-130") could be an appropriate choice.

Conclusion

The study is the first to address all three related aspects of world record marathon performance (sub-2 h, limits, gender equivalence) in a single, unified modeling framework and provides many avenues for further exploration and insight.

SUBMITTER: Angus SD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6613719 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A Statistical Timetable for the Sub-2-Hour Marathon.

Angus Simon D SD

Medicine and science in sports and exercise 20190701 7

<h4>Introduction</h4>Breaking the sub-2-h marathon in an official event has attracted growing interest in recent times with commercial and international momentum building. Here it is shown that predicting how likely and when the sub-2-h barrier will be broken are statistically coupled considerations.<h4>Methods</h4>Using a nonlinear limiting exponential model and calculating prediction intervals, a statistical timetable for the sub-2-h event is produced over a range of likelihoods.<h4>Results</h ...[more]

PMID: 30817713

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Project description:IntroductionPhysical activity is beneficial for individual health, but endurance sport is associated with the development of arrhythmias like atrial fibrillation. The underlying mechanisms leading to this increased risk are still not fully understood. MicroRNAs are important mediators of proarrhythmogenic remodeling and have potential value as biomarkers in cardiovascular diseases. Therefore, the objective of our study was to determine the value of circulating microRNAs as potential biomarkers for atrial remodeling in marathon runners (miRathon study).Methods30 marathon runners were recruited into our study and were divided into two age-matched groups depending on the training status: elite (ER, ?55 km/week, n = 15) and non-elite runners (NER, ?40 km/week, n = 15). All runners participated in a 10 week training program before the marathon. MiRNA plasma levels were measured at 4 time points: at baseline (V1), after a 10 week training period (V2), immediately after the marathon (V3) and 24h later (V4). Additionally, we obtained clinical data including serum chemistry and echocardiography at each time point.ResultsMiRNA plasma levels were similar in both groups over time with more pronounced changes in ER. After the marathon miR-30a plasma levels increased significantly in both groups. MiR-1 and miR-133a plasma levels also increased but showed significant changes in ER only. 24h after the marathon plasma levels returned to baseline. MiR-26a decreased significantly after the marathon in elite runners only and miR-29b showed a non-significant decrease over time in both groups. In ER miRNA plasma levels showed a significant correlation with LA diameter, in NER miRNA plasma levels did not correlate with echocardiographic parameters.ConclusionMiRNAs were differentially expressed in the plasma of marathon runners with more pronounced changes in ER. Plasma levels in ER correlate with left atrial diameter suggesting that circulating miRNAs could potentially serve as biomarkers of atrial remodeling in athletes.

Project description:Introduction:Marathon, as a long-distance aerobic exercise, has become a fashionable or popular sport. However, little is known about the holistic metabolic changes occurring within the serum metabolome of athletes after the completion of a marathon. Objectives:The goal of current study was to have an in-depth understanding of the impact of marathon on human metabolomics as well as the relationships among a variety of metabolites. Methods:The 20 studied subjects were all adult males who participated in a marathon. The serum samples of these participants were collected before and after the marathon and the biochemical metabolites in the serum were identified by an untargeted two-dimensional gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Results:All participants completed the marathon within 3?h. Compared to those before exercise, serum urea and creatine kinase, as well as cortisol, elevated significantly (p?<?0.05), whereas testosterone decreased significantly (p?<?0.01). Metabolomic analysis showed that, compared to those before the competition, metabolites pyruvic acid, glyceric acid, malic acid, cis-aconitic acid, galacturonic acid, methyl fumaric acid, maltotriose, and others increased significantly after the competition (p?<?0.05), but glucosamine and O-succinyl-L-homoserine decreased significantly (p?<?0.05). Amino acid indexes, such as alanine, L-tyrosine and phenylalanine, increased significantly after exercise compared with those before exercise (p?<?0.05), whereas serine, valine and asparagine decreased significantly (p?<?0.05). Lipid metabolism indexes, glycerol, glyceric acid, octanoic acid, and quinic acid increased significantly (p?<?0.05). Theophylline, xanthine and other indicators of caffeine metabolism increased significantly (p?<?0.05). Furthermore, marathon performance, fat percentage, VO2max, and hemoglobin were correlated with the serum metabonomic indicators, so were serum testosterone and cortisol. Conclusion:These results illustrate that the metabolism of glucose and lipid of the athletes was enhanced following the marathon match. In addition, the metabolism of glucosamine was decreased and the metabolism of caffeine was increased. Our data provide new insights for marathon performance and nutritional status.

Dataset Information

A Statistical Timetable for the Sub-2-Hour Marathon.

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

A Statistical Timetable for the Sub-2-Hour Marathon.

Similar Datasets

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