A Statistical Timetable for the Sub-2-Hour Marathon.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Breaking the sub-2-h marathon in an official event has attracted growing interest in recent times with commercial and international momentum building. Here it is shown that predicting how likely and when the sub-2-h barrier will be broken are statistically coupled considerations.

Methods

Using a nonlinear limiting exponential model and calculating prediction intervals, a statistical timetable for the sub-2-h event is produced over a range of likelihoods.

Results

At the benchmark odds level (1 in 10, or 10% likely), the expected sub-2-h arrival time is found to be May 2032. By estimating the model for male and female world record progressions, I find that limiting marathon times for males and females (at 1 in 10) are 1 h 58 min 5 s and 2 h 5 min 31 s, resp

SUBMITTER: Angus SD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6613719 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature