Dataset Information

Model-based prediction of CD4 cells counts in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Northwest Ethiopia: A flexible mixed effects approach.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:CD4 cell counts is widely used as a biomarker for treatment progression when studying the efficacy of drugs to treat HIV-infected patients. In the past, it had been also used in determining eligibility to initiate antiretroviral therapy. The main aim of this was to model the evolution of CD4 counts over time and use this model for an early prediction of subject-specific time to cross a pre-specified CD4 threshold. METHODS:Hospital based retrospective cohort study of HIV-infected patients was conducted from January 2009 to December 2014 at University of Gondar hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. Fractional polynomial random effect model is used to model the evolution of CD4 counts over time in response to treatment and to estimate the individual probability to be above a pre-selected CD4 threshold. Human subject research approval for this study was received from University of Gondar Research Ethics Committee and the medical director of the hospital. RESULTS:A total of 1347 patients were included in the analysis presented in this paper. The cohort contributed a total of 236.58 per 100 person-years of follow-up. Later the data were divided into two periods: the first is the estimation period in which the parameters of the model are estimated and the second is the prediction period. Based on the parameters from the estimation period, model based prediction for the time to cross a threshold was estimated. The correlations between observed and predicted values of CD4 levels in the estimation period were 0.977 and 0.982 for Neverapine and Efavirenz containing regimens, respectively; while the correlation between the observed and predicted CD4 counts in the prediction period are 0.742 and 0.805 for NVP and EFV, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The model enables us to estimate a subject-specific expected time to cross a CD4 threshold and to estimate a subject-specific probability to have CD4 count above a pre-specified threshold at each time point. By predicting long-term outcomes of CD4 count of the patients one can advise patient about the potential ART benefits that accrue in the long-term.

SUBMITTER: Awoke Ayele T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6619674 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Model-based prediction of CD4 cells counts in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Northwest Ethiopia: A flexible mixed effects approach.

Awoke Ayele Tadesse T Worku Alemayehu A Kebede Yigzaw Y Zuma Khangelani K Kasim Adetayo A Shkedy Ziv Z

PloS one 20190710 7

<h4>Background</h4>CD4 cell counts is widely used as a biomarker for treatment progression when studying the efficacy of drugs to treat HIV-infected patients. In the past, it had been also used in determining eligibility to initiate antiretroviral therapy. The main aim of this was to model the evolution of CD4 counts over time and use this model for an early prediction of subject-specific time to cross a pre-specified CD4 threshold.<h4>Methods</h4>Hospital based retrospective cohort study of HIV ...[more]

PMID: 31291281

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundThe U.S. National HIV/AIDS Strategy targets for 2015 include "increasing access to care and improving health outcomes for persons living with HIV in the United States" (PLWH-US).ObjectiveTo demonstrate the utility of the NA-ACCORD (North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design) for monitoring trends in the HIV epidemic in the United States and to present trends in HIV treatment and related health outcomes.DesignTrends from annual cross-sectional analyses comparing patients from pooled, multicenter, prospective, clinical HIV cohort studies with PLWH-US, as reported to national surveillance systems in 40 states.SettingU.S. HIV outpatient clinics.PatientsHIV-infected adults with 1 or more HIV RNA plasma viral load (HIV VL) or CD4 T-lymphocyte (CD4) cell count measured in any calendar year from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2008.MeasurementsAnnual rates of antiretroviral therapy use, HIV VL, and CD4 cell count at death.Results45 529 HIV-infected persons received care in an NA-ACCORD-participating U.S. clinical cohort from 2000 to 2008. In 2008, the 26 030 NA-ACCORD participants in care and the 655 966 PLWH-US had qualitatively similar demographic characteristics. From 2000 to 2008, the proportion of participants prescribed highly active antiretroviral therapy increased by 9 percentage points to 83% (P < 0.001), whereas the proportion with suppressed HIV VL (≤2.7 log10 copies/mL) increased by 26 percentage points to 72% (P < 0.001). Median CD4 cell count at death more than tripled to 0.209 × 109 cells/L (P < 0.001).LimitationThe usual limitations of observational data apply.ConclusionThe NA-ACCORD is the largest cohort of HIV-infected adults in clinical care in the United States that is demographically similar to PLWH-US in 2008. From 2000 to 2008, increases were observed in the percentage of prescribed HAART, the percentage who achieved a suppressed HIV VL, and the median CD4 cell count at death.Primary funding sourceNational Institutes of Health; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; Canadian HIV Trials Network; and the government of British Columbia, Canada.

Project description:BackgroundAntiretroviral therapy has shown to be effective in reducing morbidity and mortality in patients infected with HIV for the past couples of decades. However, there remains a need to better understand the characteristics of long-term treatment outcomes in resource poor settings. The main aim of this study was to determine and compare the long-term response of patients on nevirapine and efavirenz based first line antiretroviral therapy regimen in Ethiopia.MethodsHospital based retrospective cohort study was conducted from January 2009 to December 2013 at University hospital located in Northwest Ethiopia. Human subject research approval for this study was received from University of Gondar Research Ethics Committee and the medical director of the hospital. Cox-proportional hazards model was used to assess the effect of baseline covariates on composite outcome and a semi-parametric mixed effect model was used to investigate CD4 counts response to treatments.ResultsA total of 2386 HIV/AIDS naive patients were included in this study. Nearly one-in-four patients experienced the events, of which death, lost to follow up, treatment substitution and discontinuation of Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors(NNRTI) accounted: 99 (26.8%), 122 (33.0%), 137 (37.0%) and 12 (3.2%), respectively. The hazard of composite outcome on nevirapine compared with efavirenz was 1.02(95%CI: 0.52-1.99) with p-value = 0.96. Similarly, the hazard of composite outcome on tenofovir and stavudine compared with zidovudine were 1.87 (95%CI: 1.52-2.32), p-value < 0.0001 and 1.72(95% CI: 1.22-2.32), p-value = 0.002, respectively. The rate of CD4 increase in response to treatment was high during the first 10 months and stabilized later.ConclusionsThis study revealed that treatment responses were comparable whether nevirapine or efavirenz was chosen to initiate antiretroviral therapy for HIV/AIDS patients in Ethiopia. There was significant difference on risk of composite outcome between patients who were initiated with Tenofovir containing ART regimen compared with zidovudine after controlling for NNRTI drug combinations.

Dataset Information

Model-based prediction of CD4 cells counts in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Northwest Ethiopia: A flexible mixed effects approach.

Publications

Model-based prediction of CD4 cells counts in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Northwest Ethiopia: A flexible mixed effects approach.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets