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A multivariable approach for risk markers from pooled molecular data with only partial overlap.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Increasingly, molecular measurements from multiple studies are pooled to identify risk scores, with only partial overlap of measurements available from different studies. Univariate analyses of such markers have routinely been performed in such settings using meta-analysis techniques in genome-wide association studies for identifying genetic risk scores. In contrast, multivariable techniques such as regularized regression, which might potentially be more powerful, are hampered by only partial overlap of available markers even when the pooling of individual level data is feasible for analysis. This cannot easily be addressed at a preprocessing level, as quality criteria in the different studies may result in differential availability of markers - even after imputation. METHODS:Motivated by data from the InterLymph Consortium on risk factors for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, which exhibits these challenges, we adapted a regularized regression approach, componentwise boosting, for dealing with partial overlap in SNPs. This synthesis regression approach is combined with resampling to determine stable sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms, which could feed into a genetic risk score. The proposed approach is contrasted with univariate analyses, an application of the lasso, and with an analysis that discards studies causing the partial overlap. The question of statistical significance is faced with an approach called stability selection. RESULTS:Using an excerpt of the data from the InterLymph Consortium on two specific subtypes of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, it is shown that componentwise boosting can take into account all applicable information from different SNPs, irrespective of whether they are covered by all investigated studies and for all individuals in the single studies. The results indicate increased power, even when studies that would be discarded in a complete case analysis only comprise a small proportion of individuals. CONCLUSIONS:Given the observed gains in power, the proposed approach can be recommended more generally whenever there is only partial overlap of molecular measurements obtained from pooled studies and/or missing data in single studies. A corresponding software implementation is available upon request. TRIAL REGISTRATION:All involved studies have provided signed GWAS data submission certifications to the U.S. National Institute of Health and have been retrospectively registered.

SUBMITTER: Stelzer AS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6642584 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A multivariable approach for risk markers from pooled molecular data with only partial overlap.

Stelzer Anne-Sophie AS Maccioni Livia L Gerhold-Ay Aslihan A Smedby Karin E KE Schumacher Martin M Nieters Alexandra A Binder Harald H

BMC medical genetics 20190719 1

<h4>Background</h4>Increasingly, molecular measurements from multiple studies are pooled to identify risk scores, with only partial overlap of measurements available from different studies. Univariate analyses of such markers have routinely been performed in such settings using meta-analysis techniques in genome-wide association studies for identifying genetic risk scores. In contrast, multivariable techniques such as regularized regression, which might potentially be more powerful, are hampered ...[more]

PMID: 31324155

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Project description:BackgroundSurrogate outcomes are often utilized when disease outcomes are difficult to directly measure. When a biological threshold effect exists, surrogate outcomes may only represent disease in specific subpopulations. We refer to these outcomes as "partial surrogate outcomes." We hypothesized that risk models of partial surrogate outcomes would perform poorly if they fail to account for this population heterogeneity. We developed criteria for predictive model development using partial surrogate outcomes and demonstrate their importance in model selection and evaluation within the clinical example of serum creatinine, a partial surrogate outcome for acute kidney injury.MethodsData from 4737 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at a major academic center were obtained. Linear and mixture models were fit on maximum 2-day serum creatinine change as a surrogate for estimated glomerular filtration rate at 90 days after surgery (eGFR90), adjusted for known AKI risk factors. The AUC for eGFR90 decline and Spearman's rho were calculated to compare model discrimination between the linear model and a single component of the mixture model deemed to represent the informative subpopulation. Simulation studies based on the clinical data were conducted to further demonstrate the consistency and limitations of the procedure.ResultsThe mixture model was highly favored over the linear model with BICs of 2131.3 and 5034.3, respectively. When model discrimination was evaluated with respect to the partial surrogate, the linear model displays superior performance (p < 0.001); however, when it was evaluated with respect to the target outcome, the mixture model approach displays superior performance (AUC difference p = 0.002; Spearman's difference p = 0.020). Simulation studies demonstrate that the nature of the heterogeneity determines the magnitude of any advantage the mixture model.ConclusionsPartial surrogate outcomes add complexity and limitations to risk score modeling, including the potential for the usual metrics of discrimination to be misleading. Partial surrogacy can be potentially uncovered and appropriately accounted for using a mixture model approach. Serum creatinine behaved as a partial surrogate outcome consistent with two patient subpopulations, one representing patients whose injury did not exceed their renal functional reserve and a second population representing patients whose injury did exceed renal functional reserve.

Project description:BackgroundTherapeutic treatments for schizophrenia do not alleviate symptoms for all patients and efficacy is limited by common, often severe, side-effects. Genetic studies of disease can identify novel drug targets, and drugs for which the mechanism has direct genetic support have increased likelihood of clinical success. Large-scale genetic studies of schizophrenia have increased the number of genes and gene sets associated with risk. We aimed to examine the overlap between schizophrenia risk loci and gene targets of a comprehensive set of medications to potentially inform and improve treatment of schizophrenia.MethodsWe defined schizophrenia risk loci as genomic regions reaching genome-wide significance in the latest Psychiatric Genomics Consortium schizophrenia genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 36 989 cases and 113 075 controls and loss of function variants observed only once among 5079 individuals in an exome-sequencing study of 2536 schizophrenia cases and 2543 controls (Swedish Schizophrenia Study). Using two large and orthogonally created databases, we collated drug targets into 167 gene sets targeted by pharmacologically similar drugs and examined enrichment of schizophrenia risk loci in these sets. We further linked the exome-sequenced data with a national drug registry (the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register) to assess the contribution of rare variants to treatment response, using clozapine prescription as a proxy for treatment resistance.FindingsWe combined results from testing rare and common variation and, after correction for multiple testing, two gene sets were associated with schizophrenia risk: agents against amoebiasis and other protozoal diseases (106 genes, p=0·00046, pcorrected =0·024) and antipsychotics (347 genes, p=0·00078, pcorrected=0·046). Further analysis pointed to antipsychotics as having independent enrichment after removing genes that overlapped these two target sets. We noted significant enrichment both in known targets of antipsychotics (70 genes, p=0·0078) and novel predicted targets (277 genes, p=0·019). Patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia had an excess of rare disruptive variants in gene targets of antipsychotics (347 genes, p=0·0067) and in genes with evidence for a role in antipsychotic efficacy (91 genes, p=0·0029).InterpretationOur results support genetic overlap between schizophrenia pathogenesis and antipsychotic mechanism of action. This finding is consistent with treatment efficacy being polygenic and suggests that single-target therapeutics might be insufficient. We provide evidence of a role for rare functional variants in antipsychotic treatment response, pointing to a subset of patients where their genetic information could inform treatment. Finally, we present a novel framework for identifying treatments from genetic data and improving our understanding of therapeutic mechanism.FundingUS National Institutes of Health.

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A multivariable approach for risk markers from pooled molecular data with only partial overlap.

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A multivariable approach for risk markers from pooled molecular data with only partial overlap.

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