Dataset Information

A Novel Ensemble-Based Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict the Conversion From Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease Using Socio-Demographic Characteristics, Clinical Information, and Neuropsychological Measures.

ABSTRACT: Background: Despite the increasing availability in brain health related data, clinically translatable methods to predict the conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) are still lacking. Although MCI typically precedes AD, only a fraction of 20-40% of MCI individuals will progress to dementia within 3 years following the initial diagnosis. As currently available and emerging therapies likely have the greatest impact when provided at the earliest disease stage, the prompt identification of subjects at high risk for conversion to AD is of great importance in the fight against this disease. In this work, we propose a highly predictive machine learning algorithm, based only on non-invasively and easily in-the-clinic collectable predictors, to identify MCI subjects at risk for conversion to AD. Methods: The algorithm was developed using the open dataset from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), employing a sample of 550 MCI subjects whose diagnostic follow-up is available for at least 3 years after the baseline assessment. A restricted set of information regarding sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, neuropsychological test scores was used as predictors and several different supervised machine learning algorithms were developed and ensembled in final algorithm. A site-independent stratified train/test split protocol was used to provide an estimate of the generalized performance of the algorithm. Results: The final algorithm demonstrated an AUROC of 0.88, sensitivity of 77.7%, and a specificity of 79.9% on excluded test data. The specificity of the algorithm was 40.2% for 100% sensitivity. Conclusions: The algorithm we developed achieved sound and high prognostic performance to predict AD conversion using easily clinically derived information that makes the algorithm easy to be translated into practice. This indicates beneficial application to improve recruitment in clinical trials and to more selectively prescribe new and newly emerging early interventions to high AD risk patients.

SUBMITTER: Grassi M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6646724 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A Novel Ensemble-Based Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict the Conversion From Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease Using Socio-Demographic Characteristics, Clinical Information, and Neuropsychological Measures.

Grassi Massimiliano M Rouleaux Nadine N Caldirola Daniela D Loewenstein David D Schruers Koen K Perna Giampaolo G Dumontier Michel M

Frontiers in neurology 20190716

<b>Background:</b> Despite the increasing availability in brain health related data, clinically translatable methods to predict the conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) are still lacking. Although MCI typically precedes AD, only a fraction of 20-40% of MCI individuals will progress to dementia within 3 years following the initial diagnosis. As currently available and emerging therapies likely have the greatest impact when provided at the earliest disease st ...[more]

PMID: 31379711

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Predicting progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is an utmost open issue in AD-related research. Neuropsychological assessment has proven to be useful in identifying MCI patients who are likely to convert to dementia. However, the large battery of neuropsychological tests (NPTs) performed in clinical practice and the limited number of training examples are challenge to machine learning when learning prognostic models. In this context, it is paramount to pursue approaches that effectively seek for reduced sets of relevant features. Subsets of NPTs from which prognostic models can be learnt should not only be good predictors, but also stable, promoting generalizable and explainable models. METHODS:We propose a feature selection (FS) ensemble combining stability and predictability to choose the most relevant NPTs for prognostic prediction in AD. First, we combine the outcome of multiple (filter and embedded) FS methods. Then, we use a wrapper-based approach optimizing both stability and predictability to compute the number of selected features. We use two large prospective studies (ADNI and the Portuguese Cognitive Complaints Cohort, CCC) to evaluate the approach and assess the predictive value of a large number of NPTs. RESULTS:The best subsets of features include approximately 30 and 20 (from the original 79 and 40) features, for ADNI and CCC data, respectively, yielding stability above 0.89 and 0.95, and AUC above 0.87 and 0.82. Most NPTs learnt using the proposed feature selection ensemble have been identified in the literature as strong predictors of conversion from MCI to AD. CONCLUSIONS:The FS ensemble approach was able to 1) identify subsets of stable and relevant predictors from a consensus of multiple FS methods using baseline NPTs and 2) learn reliable prognostic models of conversion from MCI to AD using these subsets of features. The machine learning models learnt from these features outperformed the models trained without FS and achieved competitive results when compared to commonly used FS algorithms. Furthermore, the selected features are derived from a consensus of methods thus being more robust, while releasing users from choosing the most appropriate FS method to be used in their classification task.

Dataset Information

A Novel Ensemble-Based Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict the Conversion From Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease Using Socio-Demographic Characteristics, Clinical Information, and Neuropsychological Measures.

Publications

A Novel Ensemble-Based Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict the Conversion From Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease Using Socio-Demographic Characteristics, Clinical Information, and Neuropsychological Measures.

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