Dataset Information

Accuracy of budget impact estimations and impact on patient access: a hepatitis C case study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

High budget impact (BI) estimates of new drugs limit access to patients due to concerns regarding affordability and displacement effects. The accuracy and methodological quality of BI analyses are often low, potentially mis-informing reimbursement decision making. Using hepatitis C as a case study, we aim to quantify the accuracy of the BI predictions used in Dutch reimbursement decision-making and to characterize the influence of market-dynamics on actual BI.

Methods

We selected hepatitis C direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) that were introduced in the Netherlands between January 2014 and March 2018. Dutch National Health Care Institute (ZIN) BI estimates were derived from the reimbursement dossiers. Actual Dutch BI data were provided by FarmInform. BI prediction accuracy was assessed by comparing the ZIN BI estimates with the actual BI data.

Results

Actual BI, from 1 Jan 2014 to 1 March 2018, was €248 million whilst the BI estimates ranged from €388-€510 million. The latter figure represents the estimated BI for the reimbursement scenario that was adopted, implying a €275 million overestimation. Absent incorporation of timing of regulatory decisions and inadequate correction for the introduction of new products were main drivers of BI overestimation, as well as uncertainty regarding the patient population size and the impact of the final reimbursement decision.

Discussion

BI in reimbursement dossiers largely overestimated actual BI of hepatitis C DAAs. When BI analysis is performed according to existing guidelines, the resulting more accurate BI estimates may lead to better informed reimbursement decisions.

SUBMITTER: Geenen JW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6652171 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Accuracy of budget impact estimations and impact on patient access: a hepatitis C case study.

Geenen Joost W JW Boersma Cornelis C Klungel Olaf H OH Hövels Anke M AM

The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care 20190405 6

<h4>Background</h4>High budget impact (BI) estimates of new drugs limit access to patients due to concerns regarding affordability and displacement effects. The accuracy and methodological quality of BI analyses are often low, potentially mis-informing reimbursement decision making. Using hepatitis C as a case study, we aim to quantify the accuracy of the BI predictions used in Dutch reimbursement decision-making and to characterize the influence of market-dynamics on actual BI.<h4>Methods</h4>W ...[more]

PMID: 30953216

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundHepatitis C virus (HCV) has high global prevalence and can lead to liver complications and death. Access to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in Canada increased following several policy changes, however the real-world impact of expanded DAA access and increased use of these drugs is unknown.ObjectiveWe aimed to determine the early change in rates of HCV-related hospitalizations overall and HCV-related hospitalizations with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after expanded DAA access.MethodsWe conducted a population-based time series analysis using national administrative health databases in Canada. Rates of HCV-related hospitalizations and HCV-related hospitalizations with HCC were enumerated monthly between April 2006 and March 2020. We used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with ramp functions in October 2014 and January 2017 to evaluate the impact of policies to expand DAA access on hospitalization outcomes.ResultsRates of HCV-related hospitalizations in Canada increased between 2006 and 2014, and gradually declined thereafter. The decrease after October 2014, or the first policy change, was significant (p = 0.0355), but no further change was found after the second policy change in 2017 (p = 0.2567). HCV-related hospitalizations with HCC increased until end of 2013, followed by a plateau, before declining in 2016. No significant shifts were found after the first policy change in 2014 (p = 0.1291) nor the second policy change in 2017 (p = 0.6324). Subgroup analyses revealed that those aged 50-64 and males had observable declines in rates of HCV-related hospitalizations in the year prior to the first policy change.ConclusionsExpanding DAA access was associated with a drop in HCV-related hospitalizations in the overall Canadian population coinciding with the 2014 policy change. In light of the time required for HCV-related complications to manifest, continued ongoing research examining the real-world effectiveness of DAAs is required.

Dataset Information

Accuracy of budget impact estimations and impact on patient access: a hepatitis C case study.

Background

Methods

Results

Discussion

Publications

Accuracy of budget impact estimations and impact on patient access: a hepatitis C case study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets