Data on projections of surface water withdrawal, consumption, and availability in the conterminous United States through the 21st century.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Duan K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6661235 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Data on projections of surface water withdrawal, consumption, and availability in the conterminous United States through the 21st century.
Duan Kai K Caldwell Peter V PV Sun Ge G McNulty Steven G SG Zhang Yang Y Shuster Erik E Liu Bingjun B Bolstad Paul V PV
Data in brief 20190225
We report data on the projections of annual surface water demand and supply in the conterminous United States at a high spatial resolution from 2010s to the end of the 21st century, including: 1) water withdrawal and consumption in the water-use sectors of domestic, thermoelectric power generation, and irrigation; 2) availability of surface water generated from local watershed runoff, accumulated from upstream areas, and artificially transferred from other basins. These data were derived from th ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:We estimate future wildfire activity over the western United States during the mid-21(st) century (2046-2065), based on results from 15 climate models following the A1B scenario. We develop fire prediction models by regressing meteorological variables from the current and previous years together with fire indexes onto observed regional area burned. The regressions explain 0.25-0.60 of the variance in observed annual area burned during 1980-2004, depending on the ecoregion. We also parameterize daily area burned with temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. This approach explains ~0.5 of the variance in observed area burned over forest ecoregions but shows no predictive capability in the semi-arid regions of Nevada and California. By applying the meteorological fields from 15 climate models to our fire prediction models, we quantify the robustness of our wildfire projections at mid-century. We calculate increases of 24-124% in area burned using regressions and 63-169% with the parameterization. Our projections are most robust in the southwestern desert, where all GCMs predict significant (p<0.05) meteorological changes. For forested ecoregions, more GCMs predict significant increases in future area burned with the parameterization than with the regressions, because the latter approach is sensitive to hydrological variables that show large inter-model variability in the climate projections. The parameterization predicts that the fire season lengthens by 23 days in the warmer and drier climate at mid-century. Using a chemical transport model, we find that wildfire emissions will increase summertime surface organic carbon aerosol over the western United States by 46-70% and black carbon by 20-27% at midcentury, relative to the present day. The pollution is most enhanced during extreme episodes: above the 84(th) percentile of concentrations, OC increases by ~90% and BC by ~50%, while visibility decreases from 130 km to 100 km in 32 Federal Class 1 areas in Rocky Mountains Forest.
| S-EPMC3763857 | biostudies-other
Project description:We use three indexes to identify how age-specific mortality rates in the United States compare to those in a composite of five large European countries since 2000. First, we examine the ratio of age-specific death rates in the United States to those in Europe. These show a sharp deterioration in the US position since 2000. Applying European age-specific death rates in 2017 to the US population, we then show that adverse mortality conditions in the United States resulted in 400,700 excess deaths that year. Finally, we show that these excess deaths entailed a loss of 13.0 My of life. In 2017, excess deaths and years of life lost in the United States represent a larger annual loss of life than that associated with the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020.
| S-EPMC8072323 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Excess nitrate in drinking water is a human health concern, especially for young children. Public drinking water systems in violation of the 10 mg nitrate-N/L maximum contaminant level (MCL) must be reported in EPA's Safe Drinking Water Information System (SDWIS). We used SDWIS data with random forest modeling to examine the drivers of nitrate violations across the conterminous U.S. and to predict where public water systems are at risk of exceeding the nitrate MCL. As explanatory variables, we used land cover, nitrogen inputs, soil/hydrogeology, and climate variables. While we looked at the role of nitrate treatment in separate analyses, we did not include treatment as a factor in the final models, due to incomplete information in SDWIS. For groundwater (GW) systems, a classification model correctly classified 79% of catchments in violation and a regression model explained 43% of the variation in nitrate concentrations above the MCL. The most important variables in the GW classification model were % cropland, agricultural drainage, irrigation-to-precipitation ratio, nitrogen surplus, and surplus precipitation. Regions predicted to have risk for nitrate violations in GW were the Central California Valley, parts of Washington, Idaho, the Great Plains, Piedmont of Pennsylvania and Coastal Plains of Delaware, and regions of Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota. For surface water (SW) systems, a classification model correctly classified 90% of catchments and a regression model explained 52% of the variation in nitrate concentration. The variables most important for the SW classification model were largely hydroclimatic variables including surplus precipitation, irrigation-to-precipitation ratio, and % shrubland. Areas at greatest risk for SW nitrate violations were generally in the non-mountainous west and southwest. Identifying the areas with possible risk for future violations and potential drivers of nitrate violations across U.S. can inform decisions on how source water protection and other management options could best protect drinking water.
| S-EPMC8204728 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this study, we combined two 1 km actual evapotranspiration datasets (ET), one obtained from a root zone water balance model and another from an energy balance model, to partition annual ET into green (rainfall-based) and blue (surface water/groundwater) sources. Time series maps of green water ET (GWET) and blue water ET (BWET) are produced for the conterminous United States (CONUS) over 2001-2015. Our results indicate that average green and blue water for all land cover types in CONUS accounts for nearly 70% and 30% of the total ET, respectively. The ET in the eastern US arises mostly from GWET, and in the western US, it is mostly BWET. Analysis of the BWET in the 16 irrigated areas in CONUS revealed interesting results. While the magnitude of the BWET gradually showed a decline from west to east, the increase in coefficient of variation from west to east confirmed greater use of supplemental irrigation in the central and eastern US. We also established relationships between different hydro-climatology zones and their blue water requirements. This study provides insights on the relative contributions and the spatiotemporal dynamics of GWET and BWET, which could lead to improved water resources management.
| S-EPMC5522464 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Lithium (Li) concentrations in drinking-water supplies are not regulated in the United States; however, Li is included in the 2022 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency list of unregulated contaminants for monitoring by public water systems. Li is used pharmaceutically to treat bipolar disorder, and studies have linked its occurrence in drinking water to human-health outcomes. An extreme gradient boosting model was developed to estimate geogenic Li in drinking-water supply wells throughout the conterminous United States. The model was trained using Li measurements from ∼13,500 wells and predictor variables related to its natural occurrence in groundwater. The model predicts the probability of Li in four concentration classifications, ≤4 μg/L, >4 to ≤10 μg/L, >10 to ≤30 μg/L, and >30 μg/L. Model predictions were evaluated using wells held out from model training and with new data and have an accuracy of 47-65%. Important predictor variables include average annual precipitation, well depth, and soil geochemistry. Model predictions were mapped at a spatial resolution of 1 km2 and represent well depths associated with public- and private-supply wells. This model was developed by hydrologists and public-health researchers to estimate Li exposure from drinking water and compare to national-scale human-health data for a better understanding of dose-response to low (<30 μg/L) concentrations of Li.
| S-EPMC10795177 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMale breast cancer (MBC) is a rare disease for which there is limited understanding of treatment patterns and prognostic factors.MethodsMen with TNM stage I to stage III breast cancer diagnosed between 2004 and 2014 in the National Cancer Data Base were included. Trends in treatment modalities were described using the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and estimated using Joinpoint software for the analysis of trends. Kaplan-Meier curves and the multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to compare survival between subgroups and to identify prognostic factors.ResultsA total of 10,873 MBC cases were included, with a median age at diagnosis of 64 years. Breast-conserving surgery was performed in 24% of patients, and 70% of patients undergoing breast conservation received radiotherapy. Approximately 44% of patients received chemotherapy, and 62% of patients with estrogen receptor-positive disease received endocrine therapy. Oncotype DX was ordered in 35% of patients with lymph node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative tumors. During the study period, there was a significant increase in the rates of total mastectomy, contralateral prophylactic mastectomy, radiotherapy after breast conservation, ordering of Oncotype DX, and the use of endocrine therapy (P < .05). On multivariate analysis, factors found to be associated with worse overall survival were older age, black race, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, high tumor grade and stage of disease, and undergoing total mastectomy. Residing in a higher income area; having progesterone receptor-positive tumors; and receipt of chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and endocrine therapy were associated with better overall survival.ConclusionsDespite the lack of prospective randomized trials in patients with MBC, the results of the current study demonstrated that the treatment of this disease has evolved over the years. These findings further the understanding of the modern treatment and prognosis of MBC, and identify several areas for further research.
| S-EPMC7668385 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLimited access to supermarkets may reduce consumption of healthy foods, resulting in poor nutrition and increased prevalence of obesity. Most studies have focused on accessibility of supermarkets in specific urban settings or localized rural communities. Less is known, however, about how supermarket accessibility is associated with obesity and healthy diet at the national level and how these associations differ in urban versus rural settings. We analyzed data on obesity and fruit and vegetable (F/V) consumption from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System for 2000-2006 at the county level. We used 2006 Census Zip Code Business Patterns data to compute population-weighted mean distance to supermarket at the county level for different sizes of supermarket. Multilevel logistic regression models were developed to test whether population-weighted mean distance to supermarket was associated with both obesity and F/V consumption and to determine whether these relationships varied for urban (metropolitan) versus rural (nonmetropolitan) areas.ResultsDistance to supermarket was greater in nonmetropolitan than in metropolitan areas. The odds of obesity increased and odds of consuming F/V five times or more per day decreased as distance to supermarket increased in metropolitan areas for most store size categories. In nonmetropolitan areas, however, distance to supermarket had no associations with obesity or F/V consumption for all supermarket size categories.ConclusionsObesity prevalence increased and F/V consumption decreased with increasing distance to supermarket in metropolitan areas, but not in nonmetropolitan areas. These results suggest that there may be a threshold distance in nonmetropolitan areas beyond which distance to supermarket no longer impacts obesity and F/V consumption. In addition, obesity and food environments in nonmetropolitan areas are likely driven by a more complex set of social, cultural, and physical factors than a single measure of supermarket accessibility. Future research should attempt to more precisely quantify the availability and affordability of foods in nonmetropolitan areas and consider alternative sources of healthy foods besides supermarkets.
| S-EPMC2959055 | biostudies-literature
Project description:There is no good science in bad models. Cell culture is especially prone to artifacts. A number of novel cell culture technologies have become more broadly available in the 21st century, which allow overcoming limitations of traditional culture and are more physiologically relevant. These include the use of stem-cell derived human cells, cocultures of different cell types, scaffolds and extracellular matrices, perfusion platforms (such as microfluidics), 3D culture, organ-on-chip technologies, tissue architecture, and organ functionality. The physiological relevance of such models is further enhanced by the measurement of biomarkers (e.g., key events of pathways), organ specific functionality, and more comprehensive assessment cell responses by high-content methods. These approaches are still rarely combined to create microphysiological systems. The complexity of the combination of these technologies can generate results closer to the in vivo situation but increases the number of parameters to control, bringing some new challenges. In fact, we do not argue that all cell culture needs to be that sophisticated. The efforts taken are determined by the purpose of our experiments and tests. If only a very specific molecular target to cell response is of interest, a very simple model, which reflects this, might be much more suited to allow standardization and high-throughput. However, the less defined the end point of interest and cellular response are, the better we should approximate organ- or tissue-like culture conditions to make physiological responses more probable. Besides these technologic advances, important progress in the quality assurance and reporting on cell cultures as well as the validation of cellular test systems brings the utility of cell cultures to a new level. The advancement and broader implementation of Good Cell Culture Practice (GCCP) is key here. In toxicology, this is a major prerequisite for meaningful and reliable results, ultimately supporting risk assessment and product development decisions.
| S-EPMC5578455 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Africa is predicted to be highly vulnerable to 21st century climatic changes. Assessing the impacts of these changes on Africa's biodiversity is, however, plagued by uncertainties, and markedly different results can be obtained from alternative bioclimatic envelope models or future climate projections. Using an ensemble forecasting framework, we examine projections of future shifts in climatic suitability, and their methodological uncertainties, for over 2500 species of mammals, birds, amphibians and snakes in sub-Saharan Africa. To summarize a priori the variability in the ensemble of 17 general circulation models, we introduce a consensus methodology that combines co-varying models. Thus, we quantify and map the relative contribution to uncertainty of seven bioclimatic envelope models, three multi-model climate projections and three emissions scenarios, and explore the resulting variability in species turnover estimates. We show that bioclimatic envelope models contribute most to variability, particularly in projected novel climatic conditions over Sahelian and southern Saharan Africa. To summarize agreements among projections from the bioclimatic envelope models we compare five consensus methodologies, which generally increase or retain projection accuracy and provide consistent estimates of species turnover. Variability from emissions scenarios increases towards late-century and affects southern regions of high species turnover centred in arid Namibia. Twofold differences in median species turnover across the study area emerge among alternative climate projections and emissions scenarios. Our ensemble of projections underscores the potential bias when using a single algorithm or climate projection for Africa, and provides a cautious first approximation of the potential exposure of sub-Saharan African vertebrates to climatic changes. The future use and further development of bioclimatic envelope modelling will hinge on the interpretation of results in the light of methodological as well as biological uncertainties. Here, we provide a framework to address methodological uncertainties and contextualize results.
| S-EPMC3597255 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Future climate changes could alter hydrometeorological patterns and change the nature of droughts at global to regional scales. However, there are considerable uncertainties in future drought projections. Here, we focus on agricultural drought by analyzing surface soil moisture outputs from CMIP5 multi-model ensembles (MMEs) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. First, the annual mean soil moisture by the end of the 21st century shows statistically significant large-scale drying and limited areas of wetting for all scenarios, with stronger drying as the strength of radiative forcing increases. Second, the MME mean spatial extent of severe drought is projected to increase for all regions and all future RCP scenarios, and most notably in Central America (CAM), Europe and Mediterranean (EUM), Tropical South America (TSA), and South Africa (SAF). Third, the model uncertainty presents the largest source of uncertainty (over 80%) across the entire 21st century among the three sources of uncertainty: internal variability, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. Finally, we find that the spatial pattern and magnitude of annual and seasonal signal to noise (S/N) in soil moisture anomalies do not change significantly by lead time, indicating that the spreads of uncertainties become larger as the signals become stronger.
| S-EPMC6426967 | biostudies-literature