Excess mortality in the United States in the 21st century.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Preston SH
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8072323 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:We build on and extend the findings in Case and Deaton (2015) on increases in mortality and morbidity among white non-Hispanic Americans in midlife since the turn of the century. Increases in all-cause mortality continued unabated to 2015, with additional increases in drug overdoses, suicides, and alcohol-related liver mortality, particularly among those with a high-school degree or less. The decline in mortality from heart disease has slowed and, most recently, stopped, and this combined with the three other causes is responsible for the increase in all-cause mortality. Not only are educational differences in mortality among whites increasing, but from 1998 to 2015 mortality rose for those without, and fell for those with, a college degree. This is true for non-Hispanic white men and women in all five year age groups from 35-39 through 55-59. Mortality rates among blacks and Hispanics continued to fall; in 1999, the mortality rate of white non-Hispanics aged 50-54 with only a high-school degree was 30 percent lower than the mortality rate of blacks in the same age group but irrespective of education; by 2015, it was 30 percent higher. There are similar crossovers in all age groups from 25-29 to 60-64. Mortality rates in comparable rich countries have continued their pre-millennial fall at the rates that used to characterize the US. In contrast to the US, mortality rates in Europe are falling for those with low levels of educational attainment, and have fallen further over this period than mortality rates for those with higher levels of education. Many commentators have suggested that poor mortality outcomes can be attributed to contemporaneous levels of resources, particularly to slowly growing, stagnant, and even declining incomes; we evaluate this possibility, but find that it cannot provide a comprehensive explanation. In particular, the income profiles for blacks and Hispanics, whose mortality rates have fallen, are no better than those for whites. Nor is there any evidence in the European data that mortality trends match income trends, in spite of sharply different patterns of median income across countries after the Great Recession. We propose a preliminary but plausible story in which cumulative disadvantage from one birth cohort to the next, in the labor market, in marriage and child outcomes, and in health, is triggered by progressively worsening labor market opportunities at the time of entry for whites with low levels of education. This account, which fits much of the data, has the profoundly negative implication that policies, even ones that successfully improve earnings and jobs, or redistribute income, will take many years to reverse the mortality and morbidity increase, and that those in midlife now are likely to do much worse in old age than those currently older than 65. This is in contrast to an account in which resources affect health contemporaneously, so that those in midlife now can expect to do better in old age as they receive Social Security and Medicare. None of this implies that there are no policy levers to be pulled; preventing the over-prescription of opioids is an obvious target that would clearly be helpful.
| S-EPMC5640267 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMale breast cancer (MBC) is a rare disease for which there is limited understanding of treatment patterns and prognostic factors.MethodsMen with TNM stage I to stage III breast cancer diagnosed between 2004 and 2014 in the National Cancer Data Base were included. Trends in treatment modalities were described using the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and estimated using Joinpoint software for the analysis of trends. Kaplan-Meier curves and the multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to compare survival between subgroups and to identify prognostic factors.ResultsA total of 10,873 MBC cases were included, with a median age at diagnosis of 64 years. Breast-conserving surgery was performed in 24% of patients, and 70% of patients undergoing breast conservation received radiotherapy. Approximately 44% of patients received chemotherapy, and 62% of patients with estrogen receptor-positive disease received endocrine therapy. Oncotype DX was ordered in 35% of patients with lymph node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative tumors. During the study period, there was a significant increase in the rates of total mastectomy, contralateral prophylactic mastectomy, radiotherapy after breast conservation, ordering of Oncotype DX, and the use of endocrine therapy (P < .05). On multivariate analysis, factors found to be associated with worse overall survival were older age, black race, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, high tumor grade and stage of disease, and undergoing total mastectomy. Residing in a higher income area; having progesterone receptor-positive tumors; and receipt of chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and endocrine therapy were associated with better overall survival.ConclusionsDespite the lack of prospective randomized trials in patients with MBC, the results of the current study demonstrated that the treatment of this disease has evolved over the years. These findings further the understanding of the modern treatment and prognosis of MBC, and identify several areas for further research.
| S-EPMC7668385 | biostudies-literature
Project description:There is no good science in bad models. Cell culture is especially prone to artifacts. A number of novel cell culture technologies have become more broadly available in the 21st century, which allow overcoming limitations of traditional culture and are more physiologically relevant. These include the use of stem-cell derived human cells, cocultures of different cell types, scaffolds and extracellular matrices, perfusion platforms (such as microfluidics), 3D culture, organ-on-chip technologies, tissue architecture, and organ functionality. The physiological relevance of such models is further enhanced by the measurement of biomarkers (e.g., key events of pathways), organ specific functionality, and more comprehensive assessment cell responses by high-content methods. These approaches are still rarely combined to create microphysiological systems. The complexity of the combination of these technologies can generate results closer to the in vivo situation but increases the number of parameters to control, bringing some new challenges. In fact, we do not argue that all cell culture needs to be that sophisticated. The efforts taken are determined by the purpose of our experiments and tests. If only a very specific molecular target to cell response is of interest, a very simple model, which reflects this, might be much more suited to allow standardization and high-throughput. However, the less defined the end point of interest and cellular response are, the better we should approximate organ- or tissue-like culture conditions to make physiological responses more probable. Besides these technologic advances, important progress in the quality assurance and reporting on cell cultures as well as the validation of cellular test systems brings the utility of cell cultures to a new level. The advancement and broader implementation of Good Cell Culture Practice (GCCP) is key here. In toxicology, this is a major prerequisite for meaningful and reliable results, ultimately supporting risk assessment and product development decisions.
| S-EPMC5578455 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purposeThe magnitude and drivers of excess cerebrovascular-specific mortality during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are unknown. We aim to quantify excess stroke-related deaths and characterize its association with social distancing behavior and COVID-19-related vascular pathology.MethodsUnited States and state-level excess cerebrovascular deaths from January to May 2020 were quantified using National Center for Health Statistic data and Poisson regression models. Excess cerebrovascular deaths were analyzed as a function of time-varying stroke-related emergency medical service (EMS) calls and cumulative COVID-19 deaths using linear regression. A state-level regression analysis was performed to determine the association between excess cerebrovascular deaths and time spent in residences, measured by Google Community Mobility Reports, during the height of the pandemic after the first COVID-19 death (February 29).ResultsForty states and New York City were included. Excess cerebrovascular mortality occurred nationally from the weeks ending March 28 to May 2, 2020, up to a 7.8% increase above expected levels during the week of April 18. Decreased stroke-related EMS calls were associated with excess stroke deaths one (70 deaths per 1000 fewer EMS calls [95% CI, 20-118]) and 2 weeks (85 deaths per 1000 fewer EMS calls [95% CI, 37-133]) later. Twenty-three states and New York City experienced excess cerebrovascular mortality during the pandemic height. A 10% increase in time spent at home was associated with a 4.3% increase in stroke deaths (incidence rate ratio, 1.043 [95% CI, 1.001-1.085]) after adjusting for COVID-19 deaths.ConclusionsExcess US cerebrovascular deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic were observed and associated with decreases in stroke-related EMS calls nationally and mobility at the state level. Public health measures are needed to identify and counter the reticence to seeking medical care for acute stroke during the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC7834664 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundExcess mortality due to seasonal influenza is thought to be substantial. However, influenza may often not be recognized as cause of death. Imputation methods are therefore required to assess the public health impact of influenza. The purpose of this study was to obtain estimates of monthly excess mortality due to influenza that are based on an epidemiologically meaningful model.Methods and resultsU.S. monthly all-cause mortality, 1995 through 2005, was hierarchically modeled as Poisson variable with a mean that linearly depends both on seasonal covariates and on influenza-certified mortality. It also allowed for overdispersion to account for extra variation that is not captured by the Poisson error. The coefficient associated with influenza-certified mortality was interpreted as ratio of total influenza mortality to influenza-certified mortality. Separate models were fitted for four age categories (< 18, 18-49, 50-64, 65+). Bayesian parameter estimation was performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For the eleven year study period, a total of 260,814 (95% CI: 201,011-290,556) deaths was attributed to influenza, corresponding to an annual average of 23,710, or 0.91% of all deaths.ConclusionAnnual estimates for influenza mortality were highly variable from year to year, but they were systematically lower than previously published estimates. The excellent fit of our model with the data suggest validity of our estimates.
| S-EPMC2628891 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Human immunodefieciency virus (HIV)-infected persons are living longer in the era of effective HIV treatment, resulting in an increasing cancer burden in this population. The combined effects of HIV and cancer on mortality are incompletely understood.Methods: We examined whether individuals with both HIV and cancer have excess mortality using data from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study and the National Center for Health Statistics (1996-2010). We compared age, sex, and race-stratified mortality between people with and without HIV or one of the following cancers: lung, breast, prostate, colorectum, anus, Hodgkin lymphoma, or non-Hodgkin lymphoma. We utilized additive Poisson regression models that included terms for HIV, cancer, and an interaction for their combined effect on mortality. We report the number of excess deaths per 1,000 person-years for models with a significant interaction (P < 0.05).Results: For all cancers examined except prostate cancer, at least one demographic subgroup of HIV-infected cancer patients experienced significant excess mortality. Excess mortality was most pronounced at younger ages (30-49 years), with large excesses for males with lung cancer (white race: 573 per 1,000 person-years; non-white: 503) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (white: 236; non-white: 261), and for females with Hodgkin lymphoma (white: 216; non-white: 136) and breast cancer (non-white: 107).Conclusions: In the era of effective HIV treatment, overall mortality in patients with both HIV and cancer was significantly higher than expected on the basis of mortality rates for each disease separately.Impact: These results suggest that HIV may contribute to cancer progression and highlight the importance of improved cancer prevention and care for the U.S. HIV population. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(7); 1027-33. ©2017 AACR.
| S-EPMC5500417 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We estimate future wildfire activity over the western United States during the mid-21(st) century (2046-2065), based on results from 15 climate models following the A1B scenario. We develop fire prediction models by regressing meteorological variables from the current and previous years together with fire indexes onto observed regional area burned. The regressions explain 0.25-0.60 of the variance in observed annual area burned during 1980-2004, depending on the ecoregion. We also parameterize daily area burned with temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. This approach explains ~0.5 of the variance in observed area burned over forest ecoregions but shows no predictive capability in the semi-arid regions of Nevada and California. By applying the meteorological fields from 15 climate models to our fire prediction models, we quantify the robustness of our wildfire projections at mid-century. We calculate increases of 24-124% in area burned using regressions and 63-169% with the parameterization. Our projections are most robust in the southwestern desert, where all GCMs predict significant (p<0.05) meteorological changes. For forested ecoregions, more GCMs predict significant increases in future area burned with the parameterization than with the regressions, because the latter approach is sensitive to hydrological variables that show large inter-model variability in the climate projections. The parameterization predicts that the fire season lengthens by 23 days in the warmer and drier climate at mid-century. Using a chemical transport model, we find that wildfire emissions will increase summertime surface organic carbon aerosol over the western United States by 46-70% and black carbon by 20-27% at midcentury, relative to the present day. The pollution is most enhanced during extreme episodes: above the 84(th) percentile of concentrations, OC increases by ~90% and BC by ~50%, while visibility decreases from 130 km to 100 km in 32 Federal Class 1 areas in Rocky Mountains Forest.
| S-EPMC3763857 | biostudies-other
Project description:We report data on the projections of annual surface water demand and supply in the conterminous United States at a high spatial resolution from 2010s to the end of the 21st century, including: 1) water withdrawal and consumption in the water-use sectors of domestic, thermoelectric power generation, and irrigation; 2) availability of surface water generated from local watershed runoff, accumulated from upstream areas, and artificially transferred from other basins. These data were derived from the projected changes in climate, population, energy structure, technology and water uses. These data are related to the original article "Understanding the role of regional water connectivity in mitigating climate change impacts on surface water supply stress in the United States" (Duan et al., 2019) [1].
| S-EPMC6661235 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Using historical data from 1,763 birth cohorts from 1800 to 1935 in 13 developed countries, we show that what is now seen as normal-a large excess of female life expectancy in adulthood-is a demographic phenomenon that emerged among people born in the late 1800s. We show that excess adult male mortality is clearly rooted in specific age groups, 50-70, and that the sex asymmetry emerged in cohorts born after 1880 when male:female mortality ratios increased by as much as 50% from a baseline of about 1.1. Heart disease is the main condition associated with increased excess male mortality for those born after 1900. We further show that smoking-attributable deaths account for about 30% of excess male mortality at ages 50-70 for cohorts born in 1900-1935. However, after accounting for smoking, substantial excess male mortality at ages 50-70 remained, particularly from cardiovascular disease. The greater male vulnerability to cardiovascular conditions emerged with the reduction in infectious mortality and changes in health-related behaviors.
| S-EPMC4517277 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Research has established a strong association between asbestos exposure and malignant mesothelioma, a deadly form of cancer. Since the early 1980's many countries have restricted or banned the production of asbestos, leading to a decline of occupational asbestos exposure in many industrialized countries. However, some countries continue to use asbestos, and worldwide rates of mesothelioma are still increasing. Because of the long latency between exposure and mesothelioma occurrence and the persistence of environmental exposure, incidence rates (IR) may decrease very slowly for several years ahead. In this review, we examine estimates of asbestos consumption before widespread asbestos regulations and the trends in incidence and mortality rates, as well as changes over time for the United States and Europe. In some countries with earlier asbestos restrictions, mesothelioma incidence has been in a modest decline over time. However, asbestos exposure is still a burden worldwide and legislative action is needed to obtain a full ban. The pattern of mesothelioma is shifting from a mostly male disease to a disease that affects females as well in substantial numbers. Studies on unknown sources of asbestos exposure, of other sources of natural exposure to asbestos and asbestos-like fibers, as well as of individual genetic susceptibility to asbestos fibers are needed.
| S-EPMC7082259 | biostudies-literature