Dataset Information

Resolving Sahelian thunderstorms improves mid-latitude weather forecasts.

ABSTRACT: The summertime West African Sahel has the worldwide highest degree of thunderstorm organisation into long-lived, several hundred-kilometre elongated, fast propagating systems that contribute 90% to the annual rainfall. All current global weather prediction and climate models represent thunderstorms using simplified parameterisation schemes which deteriorates the modelled distribution of rainfall from individual storms and the entire West African monsoon circulation. It is unclear how this misrepresentation of Sahelian convection affects forecasts globally. Our study is the first to demonstrate how a computationally feasible increase of model resolution over West Africa - allowing to avoid convection parameterisation - yields a better representation of organised convection in the Sahel and of moisture within the monsoon system, ultimately improving 5-8-day tropical and mid-latitude weather forecasts. We advocate an operational use of a modelling strategy similar to the one presented here for a cost-effective improvement of global weather prediction and potentially even (sub-)seasonal and climate simulations.

SUBMITTER: Pante G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6677761 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Resolving Sahelian thunderstorms improves mid-latitude weather forecasts.

Pante Gregor G Knippertz Peter P

Nature communications 20190802 1

The summertime West African Sahel has the worldwide highest degree of thunderstorm organisation into long-lived, several hundred-kilometre elongated, fast propagating systems that contribute 90% to the annual rainfall. All current global weather prediction and climate models represent thunderstorms using simplified parameterisation schemes which deteriorates the modelled distribution of rainfall from individual storms and the entire West African monsoon circulation. It is unclear how this misrep ...[more]

PMID: 31375666

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Project description:Drained, lowland agricultural peatlands are greenhouse gas (GHG) emission hotspots and a large but vulnerable store of irrecoverable carbon. They exhibit soil loss rates of ~2.0 cm yr-1 and are estimated to account for 32% of global cropland emissions while producing only 1.1% of crop kilocalories. Carbon dioxide emissions account for >80% of their terrestrial GHG emissions and are largely controlled by water table depth. Reducing drainage depths is, therefore, essential for responsible peatland management. Peatland restoration can substantially reduce emissions. However, this may conflict with societal needs to maintain productive use, to protect food security and livelihoods. Wetland agriculture strategies will, therefore, be required to adapt agriculture to the wetland character of peatlands, and balance GHG mitigation against productivity, where halting emissions is not immediately possible. Paludiculture may substantially reduce GHG emissions but will not always be viable in the current economic landscape. Reduced drainage intensity systems may deliver partial reductions in the rate of emissions, with smaller modifications to existing systems. These compromise systems may face fewer hurdles to adoption and minimize environmental harm until societal conditions favour strategies that can halt emissions. Wetland agriculture will face agronomic, socio-economic and water management challenges, and careful implementation will be required. Diversity of values and priorities among stakeholders creates the potential for conflict. Successful implementation will require participatory research approaches and co-creation of workable solutions. Policymakers, private sector funders and researchers have key roles to play but adoption risks would fall predominantly on land managers. Development of a robust wetland agriculture paradigm is essential to deliver resilient production systems and wider environmental benefits. The challenge of responsible use presents an opportunity to rethink peatland management and create thriving, innovative and green wetland landscapes for everyone's future benefit, while making a vital contribution to global climate change mitigation.

Dataset Information

Resolving Sahelian thunderstorms improves mid-latitude weather forecasts.

Publications

Resolving Sahelian thunderstorms improves mid-latitude weather forecasts.

Similar Datasets

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