Dataset Information

Development of a predictive model of hospitalization in primary care patients with heart failure.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of hospitalization in people over age 65. Predictive hospital admission models have been developed to help reduce the number of these patients.

Aim

To develop and internally validate a model to predict hospital admission in one-year for any non-programmed cause in heart failure patients receiving primary care treatment.

Design and setting

Cohort study, prospective. Patients treated in family medicine clinics.

Methods

Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the association between the predictors and the outcome, i.e. unplanned hospitalization over a 12-month period. The predictive model was built in several steps. The initial examination included a set of 31 predictors. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation.

Results

The study included 251 patients, 64 (25.5%) of whom were admitted to hospital for some unplanned cause over the 12 months following their date of inclusion in the study. Four predictive variables of hospitalization were identified: NYHA class III-IV, OR (95% CI) 2.46 (1.23-4.91); diabetes OR (95% CI) 1.94 (1.05-3.58); COPD OR (95% CI) 3.17 (1.45-6.94); MLHFQ Emotional OR (95% CI) 1.07 (1.02-1.12). AUC 0.723; R2N 0.17; Hosmer-Lemeshow 0.815. Internal validation AUC 0.706.; R2N 0.134.

Conclusion

This is a simple model to predict hospitalization over a 12-month period based on four variables: NYHA functional class, diabetes, COPD and the emotional dimension of the MLHFQ scale. It has an acceptable discriminative capacity enabling the identification of patients at risk of hospitalization.

SUBMITTER: Garcia-Olmos L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6697326 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development of a predictive model of hospitalization in primary care patients with heart failure.

García-Olmos Luis L Aguilar Río R Lora David D Carmona Montse M Alberquilla Angel A García-Caballero Rebeca R Sánchez-Gómez Luis L

PloS one 20190816 8

<h4>Background</h4>Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of hospitalization in people over age 65. Predictive hospital admission models have been developed to help reduce the number of these patients.<h4>Aim</h4>To develop and internally validate a model to predict hospital admission in one-year for any non-programmed cause in heart failure patients receiving primary care treatment.<h4>Design and setting</h4>Cohort study, prospective. Patients treated in family medicine clinics.<h4>Methods</h4 ...[more]

PMID: 31419267

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Project description:BackgroundThe EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial (Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 diabetes Mellitus Patients) showed that empagliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor, reduces the risk of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) by 35%, on top of standard of care in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) and established cardiovascular disease. The EMPRISE (Empagliflozin Comparative Effectiveness and Safety) study aims to assess empagliflozin's effectiveness, safety, and healthcare utilization in routine care from August 2014 through September 2019. In this first interim analysis, we investigated the risk of HHF among T2D patients initiating empagliflozin versus sitagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor.MethodsWithin 2 commercial and 1 federal (Medicare) claims data sources in the United States, we identified a 1:1 propensity score-matched cohort of T2D patients ≥18 years old initiating empagliflozin or sitagliptin from August 2014 through September 2016. The HHF outcome was defined as a HF discharge diagnosis in the primary position (HHF-specific); a broader definition was based on a HF discharge diagnosis in any position (HHF-broad). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated controlling for over 140 baseline characteristics in each data source and pooled by fixed-effects meta-analysis.ResultsAfter propensity-score matching, we identified 16,443 patient pairs who initiated empagliflozin or sitagliptin. Average age was approximately 59 years, almost 54% of the participants were males, and approximately 25% had records of existing cardiovascular disease. Compared with sitagliptin, the initiation of empagliflozin decreased the risk of HHF-specific by 50% (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.28-0.91), and the risk of HHF-broad by 49% (HR, 0.51;95% CI, 0.39-0.68), over a mean follow-up of 5.3 months. The results were consistent in patients with and without baseline cardiovascular disease, and for empagliflozin at both the 10- and 25-mg daily doses; analyses comparing empagliflozin versus the dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor class, and comparing sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor classes also produced consistent findings.ConclusionsThe first interim analysis from EMPRISE showed that compared with sitagliptin, the initiation of empagliflozin was associated with a decreased risk of HHF among patients with T2D as treated in routine care, with and without a history of cardiovascular disease.Clinical trial registrationURL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT03363464.

Project description:The period after hospitalization due to deteriorated heart failure (HF) is characterized as a time of high generalized risk. The transition from hospital to home is often problematic due to insufficient coordination of care, leading to a fragmentation of care rather than a seamless continuum of care. The aim was to describe health and community care utilization prior to and 30 days after hospitalization, and the continuity of care in patients hospitalized due to de novo or deteriorated HF from the patients' perspective and from a medical chart review.This was a cross-sectional study with consecutive inclusion of patients hospitalized at a county hospital in Sweden due to deteriorated HF during 2014. Data were collected by structured telephone interviews and medical chart review and analyzed with the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and Chi square. A P value of 0.05 was considered significant.A total of 121 patients were included in the study, mean age 82.5 (±6.8) and 49% were women. Half of the patients had not visited any health care facility during the month prior to the index hospital admission, and 79% of the patients visited the emergency room (ER) without a referral. Among these elderly patients, a total of 40% received assistance at home prior to hospitalization and 52% after discharge. A total of 86% received written discharge information, one third felt insecure after hospitalization and lacked knowledge of which health care provider to consult with and contact in the event of deterioration or complications. Health care utilization increased significantly after hospitalization.Most patients had not visited any health care facility within 30 days before hospitalization. Health care utilization increased significantly after hospitalization. Flaws in the continuity of care were found; even though most patients received written information at discharge, one third of the patients lacked knowledge about which health care provider to contact in the event of deterioration and felt insecure at home after discharge.

Dataset Information

Development of a predictive model of hospitalization in primary care patients with heart failure.

Background

Aim

Design and setting

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Development of a predictive model of hospitalization in primary care patients with heart failure.

Similar Datasets

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