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Models estimating risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with alcohol or NAFLD-related cirrhosis for risk stratification.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND & AIMS:Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk varies dramatically in patients with cirrhosis according to well-described, readily available predictors. We aimed to develop simple models estimating HCC risk in patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD)-cirrhosis or non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-cirrhosis and calculate the net benefit that would be derived by implementing HCC surveillance strategies based on HCC risk as predicted by our models. METHODS:We identified 7,068 patients with NAFLD-cirrhosis and 16,175 with ALD-cirrhosis who received care in the Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system in 2012. We retrospectively followed them for the development of incident HCC until January 2018. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to develop and internally validate models predicting HCC risk using baseline characteristics at entry into the cohort in 2012. We plotted decision curves of net benefit against HCC screening thresholds. RESULTS:We identified 1,278 incident cases of HCC during a mean follow-up period of 3.7?years. Mean annualized HCC incidence was 1.56% in NAFLD-cirrhosis and 1.44% in ALD-cirrhosis. The final models estimating HCC were developed separately for NAFLD-cirrhosis and ALD-cirrhosis and included 7 predictors: age, gender, diabetes, body mass index, platelet count, serum albumin and aspartate aminotransferase to ?alanine aminotransferase ratio. The models exhibited very good measures of discrimination and calibration and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.75 for NAFLD-cirrhosis and 0.76 for ALD-cirrhosis. Decision curves showed higher standardized net benefit of risk-based screening using our prediction models compared to the screen-all approach. CONCLUSIONS:We developed simple models estimating HCC risk in patients with NAFLD-cirrhosis or ALD-cirrhosis, which are available as web-based tools (www.hccrisk.com). Risk stratification can be used to inform risk-based HCC surveillance strategies in individual patients or healthcare systems or to identify high-risk patients for clinical trials. LAY SUMMARY:Patients with cirrhosis of the liver are at risk of getting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC or liver cancer) and therefore it is recommended that they undergo surveillance for HCC. However, the risk of HCC varies dramatically in patients with cirrhosis, which has implications on if and how patients get surveillance, how providers counsel patients about the need for surveillance, and how healthcare systems approach and prioritize surveillance. We used readily available predictors to develop models estimating HCC risk in patients with cirrhosis, which are available as web-based tools at www.hccrisk.com.

SUBMITTER: Ioannou GN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6702126 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Models estimating risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with alcohol or NAFLD-related cirrhosis for risk stratification.

Ioannou George N GN Green Pamela P Kerr Kathleen F KF Berry Kristin K

Journal of hepatology 20190528 3

<h4>Background & aims</h4>Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk varies dramatically in patients with cirrhosis according to well-described, readily available predictors. We aimed to develop simple models estimating HCC risk in patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD)-cirrhosis or non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-cirrhosis and calculate the net benefit that would be derived by implementing HCC surveillance strategies based on HCC risk as predicted by our models.<h4>Methods</h4>We ...[more]

PMID: 31145929

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Project description:Background and aimsThe long-term risk of disease for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in the absence of elevated enzymes is unclear. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Corporate Data Warehouse of the Veterans Health Administration.Approach and resultsWe classified patients into three groups: patients with steatosis/normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT), steatosis/elevated ALT, and no steatosis/normal ALT. We examined incidence rates for cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and conducted cause-specific hazard models to evaluate the risk of cirrhosis and HCC. We identified 3,522 patients with steatosis/normal ALT, 15,419 patients with steatosis/elevated ALT, and 9,267 patients with no steatosis/normal ALT. The mean age in each group was 58.9, 54.7 and 59.3 years, respectively; over 90% were men. Compared to patients with hepatic steatosis/normal ALT, those with steatosis/elevated ALT were younger and more likely to be obese (both P < 0.01). In patients with steatosis/normal ALT, the incidence rates of cirrhosis and HCC were 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-1.74) and 0.20 (95% CI: 0.06-0.46) per 1,000 person-years, respectively; this was lower than in patients with steatosis/elevated ALT (cirrhosis: 3.85; 95% CI: 3.50-4.23, and HCC: 0.37; 95% CI: 0.26-0.49). Patients with steatosis/elevated ALT had a higher risk of developing cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio: 3.37; 95% CI: 2.34-4.86; P < 0.01) than patients with steatosis/normal ALT; they also had a higher risk of HCC, although it did not reach statistical significance (hazard ratio: 2.07; 95% CI: 0.82-5.28; P = 0.13). The risk of cirrhosis and HCC in patients with steatosis/normal ALT and those without steatosis was not significantly different.ConclusionsPatients with hepatic steatosis with persistently normal ALT are at lower risk for cirrhosis compared to those with steatosis and elevated ALT and not different from the risk in a clinical cohort without hepatic steatosis.

Project description:BACKGROUND & AIMS:Most patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection will undergo antiviral treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and achieve sustained virologic response (SVR). We aimed to develop models estimating hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after antiviral treatment. METHODS:We identified 45,810 patients who initiated antiviral treatment in the Veterans Affairs (VA) national healthcare system from 1/1/2009 to 12/31/2015, including 29,309 (64%) DAA-only regimens and 16,501 (36%) interferon?±?DAA regimens. We retrospectively followed patients until 6/15/2017 to identify incident cases of HCC. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to develop and internally validate models predicting HCC risk using baseline characteristics at the time of antiviral treatment. RESULTS:We identified 1,412 incident cases of HCC diagnosed at least 180?days after initiation of antiviral treatment during a mean follow-up of 2.5?years (range 1.0-7.5?years). Models predicting HCC risk after antiviral treatment were developed and validated separately for four subgroups of patients: cirrhosis/SVR, cirrhosis/no SVR, no cirrhosis/SVR, no cirrhosis/no SVR. Four predictors (age, platelet count, serum aspartate aminotransferase/?alanine aminotransferase ratio and albumin) accounted for most of the models' predictive value, with smaller contributions from sex, race-ethnicity, HCV genotype, body mass index, hemoglobin and serum alpha-fetoprotein. Fitted models were well-calibrated with very good measures of discrimination. Decision curves demonstrated higher net benefit of using model-based HCC risk estimates to determine whether to recommend screening or not compared to the screen-all or screen-none strategies. CONCLUSIONS:We developed and internally validated models that estimate HCC risk following antiviral treatment. These models are available as web-based tools that can be used to inform risk-based HCC surveillance strategies in individual patients. LAY SUMMARY:Most patients with hepatitis C virus have been treated or will be treated with direct-acting antivirals. It is important that we can model the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in these patients, so that we develop the optimum screening strategy that avoids unnecessary screening, while adequately screening those at increased risk. Herein, we have developed and validated models that are available as web-based tools that can be used to guide screening strategies.

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Models estimating risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with alcohol or NAFLD-related cirrhosis for risk stratification.

Publications

Models estimating risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with alcohol or NAFLD-related cirrhosis for risk stratification.

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