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Prognostic prediction models for diabetic retinopathy progression: a systematic review.

ABSTRACT: With the increasing incidence of diabetic retinopathy and its improved detection, there is increased demand for diabetic retinopathy treatment services. Prognostic prediction models have been used to optimise services but these were intended for early detection of sight-threatening retinopathy and are mostly used in diabetic retinopathy screening services. We wanted to look into the predictive ability and applicability of the existing models for the higher-risk patients referred into hospitals. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, COCHRANE CENTRAL, conference abstracts and reference lists of included publications for studies of any design using search terms related to diabetes, diabetic retinopathy and prognostic models. Search results were screened for relevance to the review question. Included studies had data extracted on model characteristics, predictive ability and validation. They were assessed for quality using criteria specified by PROBAST and CHARMS checklists, independently by two reviewers. Twenty-two articles reporting on 14 prognostic models (including four updates) met the selection criteria. Eleven models had internal validation, eight had external validation and one had neither. Discriminative ability with c-statistics ranged from 0.57 to 0.91. Studies ranged from low to high risk of bias, mostly due to the need for external validation or missing data. Participants, outcomes, predictors handling and modelling methods varied. Most models focussed on lower-risk patients, the majority had high risk of bias and doubtful applicability, but three models had some applicability for higher-risk patients. However, these models will also need updating and external validation in multiple hospital settings before being implemented into clinical practice.

SUBMITTER: Haider S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6707154 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prognostic prediction models for diabetic retinopathy progression: a systematic review.

Haider Sajjad S Sadiq Salman Naveed SN Moore David D Price Malcolm James MJ Nirantharakumar Krishnarajah K

Eye (London, England) 20190116 5

With the increasing incidence of diabetic retinopathy and its improved detection, there is increased demand for diabetic retinopathy treatment services. Prognostic prediction models have been used to optimise services but these were intended for early detection of sight-threatening retinopathy and are mostly used in diabetic retinopathy screening services. We wanted to look into the predictive ability and applicability of the existing models for the higher-risk patients referred into hospitals. ...[more]

PMID: 30651592

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Project description:ObjectiveOur study aimed to systematically review the methodological characteristics of studies that identified prognostic factors or developed or validated models for predicting mortalities among patients with acute aortic dissection (AAD), which would inform future work.Design/settingA methodological review of published studies.MethodsWe searched PubMed and EMBASE from inception to June 2020 for studies about prognostic factors or prediction models on mortality among patients with AAD. Two reviewers independently collected the information about methodological characteristics. We also documented the information about the performance of the prognostic factors or prediction models.ResultsThirty-two studies were included, of which 18 evaluated the performance of prognostic factors, and 14 developed or validated prediction models. Of the 32 studies, 23 (72%) were single-centre studies, 22 (69%) used data from electronic medical records, 19 (59%) chose retrospective cohort study design, 26 (81%) did not report missing predictor data and 5 (16%) that reported missing predictor data used complete-case analysis. Among the 14 prediction model studies, only 3 (21%) had the event per variable over 20, and only 5 (36%) reported both discrimination and calibration statistics. Among model development studies, 3 (27%) did not report statistical methods, 3 (27%) exclusively used statistical significance threshold for selecting predictors and 7 (64%) did not report the methods for handling continuous predictors. Most prediction models were considered at high risk of bias. The performance of prognostic factors showed varying discrimination (AUC 0.58 to 0.95), and the performance of prediction models also varied substantially (AUC 0.49 to 0.91). Only six studies reported calibration statistic.ConclusionsThe methods used for prognostic studies on mortality among patients with AAD-including prediction models or prognostic factor studies-were suboptimal, and the model performance highly varied. Substantial efforts are warranted to improve the use of the methods in this population.

Project description:Background: Diabetic retinopathy is a common microvascular complication in diabetic patients and is considered the main cause of visual loss worldwide. Periodontitis is a chronic inflammatory condition, which compromises dental supporting tissues. The chronic bacterial challenge in periodontitis is a persistent source of inflammatory mediators that may be associated with insulin resistance, increasing the risk of complications of diabetes mellitus. This systematic review aimed to summarize the evidence in the association between diabetic retinopathy and periodontitis. Methods: This review was registered under the number CRD 42019142267. A search strategy in five electronic databases and a gray literature source was performed based on the PECO acronym. After data extraction, the qualitative synthesis and risk of bias analyses were performed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. The level of evidence of all studies taken together was evaluated through the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Results: Out of the 253 citations screened, five cross-sectional studies met the eligibility criteria and were included in the qualitative analysis, in which two were judged to be of good quality, one as fair quality, and two as poor quality. Among the included studies, a significant relationship between the severity of periodontitis (CAL > 5 mm) and the severity of diabetic retinopathy (p < 0.05) was reported by four studies. Also, an association between both diseases in non-obese adults was found after adjustments [OR 2.206 (1.114-4.366); p = 0.0232). However, the analysis of evidence by GRADE assessment was rated as low. Conclusions: Although the results of individual studies suggest an association between diabetic retinopathy and periodontitis, the quality of the body of evidence was judged to be low by the GRADE approach. Further studies with larger sample sizes, adequate models of cofounders' adjustments, and prospective analysis of periodontitis and diabetes conditions ought to be conducted to clarify this association.

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Prognostic prediction models for diabetic retinopathy progression: a systematic review.

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Prognostic prediction models for diabetic retinopathy progression: a systematic review.

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