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Assessing rates and contextual predictors of 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals following HIV testing in Durban, South Africa.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Little is known about contextual factors that predict long-term mortality following HIV testing in resource-limited settings. We evaluated the impact of contextual factors on 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals in Durban, South Africa. METHODS:We used data from the Sizanani trial (NCT01188941) in which adults (?18y) were enrolled prior to HIV testing at 4 outpatient sites. We ascertained vital status via the South African National Population Register. We used random survival forests to identify the most influential predictors of time to death and incorporated these into a Cox model that included age, gender, HIV status, CD4 count, healthcare usage, health facility type, mental health, and self-identified barriers to care (i.e., service delivery, financial, logistical, structural and perceived health). RESULTS:Among 4816 participants, 39% were HIV-infected. Median age was 31y and 49% were female. 380 of 2508 with survival information (15%) died during median follow-up of 5.8y. For both HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected participants, each additional barrier domain increased the HR of dying by 11% (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05-1.18). Every 10-point increase in mental health score decreased the HR by 7% (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89-0.97). The hazard ratio (HR) for death of HIV-infected versus HIV-uninfected varied by age: HR of 6.59 (95% CI: 4.79-9.06) at age 20 dropping to a HR of 1.13 (95% CI: 0.86-1.48) at age 60. CONCLUSIONS:Independent of serostatus, more self-identified barrier domains and poorer mental health increased mortality risk. Additionally, the impact of HIV on mortality was most pronounced in younger persons. These factors may be used to identify high-risk individuals requiring intensive follow up, regardless of serostatus. TRIAL REGISTRATION:Clinical Trials.gov Identifier NCT01188941. Registered 26 August 2010.

SUBMITTER: Bassett IV

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6712739 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing rates and contextual predictors of 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals following HIV testing in Durban, South Africa.

Bassett Ingrid V IV Xu Ai A Giddy Janet J Bogart Laura M LM Boulle Andrew A Millham Lucia L Losina Elena E Parker Robert A RA

BMC infectious diseases 20190828 1

<h4>Background</h4>Little is known about contextual factors that predict long-term mortality following HIV testing in resource-limited settings. We evaluated the impact of contextual factors on 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals in Durban, South Africa.<h4>Methods</h4>We used data from the Sizanani trial (NCT01188941) in which adults (≥18y) were enrolled prior to HIV testing at 4 outpatient sites. We ascertained vital status via the South African National Populati ...[more]

PMID: 31455229

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Project description:BackgroundSouth Africa has the largest population of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) realising the benefits of increased life expectancy. However, this population may be susceptible to cardiovascular disease (CVD) development, due to the chronic consequences of a lifestyle-related combination of risk factors, HIV infection and ART. We predicted a 10-year cardiovascular mortality risk in an HIV-infected population on long-term ART, based on their observed metabolic risk factor profile.MethodsWe extracted data from hospital medical charts for 384 randomly selected HIV-infected patients aged ≥ 30 years. We defined metabolic syndrome (MetS) subcomponents using the International Diabetes Federation definition. A validated non-laboratory-based model for predicting a 10-year CVD mortality risk was applied and categorised into five levels, with the thresholds ranging from very low-risk (< 5%) to very high-risk scores (> 30%).ResultsAmong the 384 patients, with a mean (± standard deviation) age of 42.90 ± 8.20 years, the proportion of patients that were overweight/obese was 53.3%, where 50.9% had low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and 21 (17.5%) had metabolic syndrome. A total of 144 patients with complete data allowed a definitive prediction of a 10-year CVD mortality risk. 52% (95% CI 44-60) of the patients were stratified to very low risk (< 5%) compared to 8% (95% CI 4-13) that were at a very high risk (> 30%) of 10-year CVD mortality. The CVD risk grows with increasing age (years), 57.82 ± 6.27 among very high risk and 37.52 ± 4.50; p < 0.001 in very low risk patients. Adjusting for age and analysing CVD risk mortality as a continuous risk score, increasing duration of HIV infection (p = 0.002) and ART (p = 0.007) were significantly associated with increased predicted 10 year CVD mortality risk. However, there was no association between these factors and categorised CVD mortality risk as per recommended scoring thresholds.ConclusionsApproximately 1 in 10 HIV-infected patients is at very high risk of predicted 10-year CVD mortality in our study population. Like uninfected individuals, our study found increased age as a major predictor of 10-year mortality risk and high prevalence of metabolic syndrome. Additional CVD mortality risk due to the duration of HIV infection and ART was seen in our population, further studies in larger and more representative study samples are encouraged. It recommends an urgent need for early planning, prevention and management of metabolic risk factors in HIV populations, at the point of ART initiation.

Dataset Information

Assessing rates and contextual predictors of 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals following HIV testing in Durban, South Africa.

Publications

Assessing rates and contextual predictors of 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals following HIV testing in Durban, South Africa.

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