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Nature beyond control: how expectations should inform decisions about human germline engineering.

ABSTRACT: In the ongoing discussion about the risks of reproductive human germline modification, scant attention has been paid to whether it could be reconciled with theories of psychological well-being. Even if safety and feasibility challenges could be overcome and germline engineering technology could be implemented in ways that avoid exacerbating social inequality, we would still have to question whether germline modification would promote circumstances that lead to better psychological experiences for parents, society, and the genetically edited person. This paper posits that germline engineering would produce expectations of being able to control the manifestation of an individual's characteristics, which will inevitably be upset by our limited understanding of how genes interact with each other and with the environment. Drawing on self-discrepancy and relative deprivation theories, it is suggested that both editing and being edited could lead to unmet expectations and thus negative emotional states that would offset benefits of successful intended genetic changes.

SUBMITTER: Parent B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6730720 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Nature beyond control: how expectations should inform decisions about human germline engineering.

Parent Brendan B Turi Angela A

Journal of assisted reproduction and genetics 20190716 9

In the ongoing discussion about the risks of reproductive human germline modification, scant attention has been paid to whether it could be reconciled with theories of psychological well-being. Even if safety and feasibility challenges could be overcome and germline engineering technology could be implemented in ways that avoid exacerbating social inequality, we would still have to question whether germline modification would promote circumstances that lead to better psychological experiences fo ...[more]

PMID: 31313011

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Project description:Motivation and methodExisting rational expectations models cannot satisfactorily explain why political budget manipulations systematically raise re-election chances and only occur in "specific contexts". This paper offers a theoretical explanation by including unsophisticated voters into an opportunistic political cycle model; unsophisticated voters are unable to take the optimal behaviour of other agents (fully) into account, but may, nonetheless, vaguely suspect government deception.ResultsFirst, rationally expected manipulations are, on average, fruitless in equilibrium. By including unsophisticated voters we can, however, corroborate empirically found electoral effects of political budget manipulations. Second, unsophisticated voters become anxious and suspicious in an intransparent or uncertain world, but the government tries to "outperform" their scepticism by increasing budget manipulations in order to appear more competent and, ultimately, increase re-election chances. It is, therefore, not surprising that political budget cycles are observed in countries suffering from intransparencies such as developing countries or new democracies. Third and in addition, the model presented here predicts that political opportunism produces, unintentionally, a countercyclical policy effect in election years, thereby, for instance, alleviating the typical problem of policy procyclicality in developing countries.Additional contributionThe paper also offers a theoretical explanation for political distortions found in forecasts by US states. Based on overly optimistic revenue forecasts the incumbent state government can conduct expansionary fiscal policies in order to appear more competent prior to an upcoming election. Since the resulting deficit can only be observed afterwards, the government can effectively circumvent a constitutional balanced budget constraint. As a result, there are political forecast and budget cycles in the state. More generally, however, these findings may also apply to European countries where balanced budget constraints are or will be in place (for instance the debt brakes in Switzerland and Germany); similarly, they apply to the supra-national European Fiscal Compact of the European Union.

Project description:Globally, public health measures like face masks, hand hygiene and maintaining social distancing have been implemented to delay and reduce local transmission of COVID-19. To date there is emerging evidence to provide effectiveness and compliance to intervention measures on COVID-19 due to rapid spread of the disease. We synthesized evidence of community interventions and innovative practices to mitigate COVID-19 as well as previous respiratory outbreak infections which may share some aspects of transmission dynamics with COVID-19. In the study, we systematically searched the literature on community interventions to mitigate COVID-19, SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), H1N1 Influenza and MERS (middle east respiratory syndrome) epidemics in PubMed, Google Scholar, World Health Organization (WHO), MEDRXIV and Google from their inception until May 30, 2020 for up-to-date published and grey resources. We screened records, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias in duplicates. We rated the certainty of evidence according to Cochrane methods and the GRADE approach. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020183064). Of 41,138 papers found, 17 studies met the inclusion criteria in various settings in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). One of the papers from LMICs originated from Africa (Madagascar) with the rest from Asia 9 (China 5, Bangladesh 2, Thailand 2); South America 5 (Mexico 3, Peru 2) and Europe 2 (Serbia and Romania). Following five studies on the use of face masks, the risk of contracting SARS and Influenza was reduced OR 0.78 and 95% CI = 0.36-1.67. Equally, six studies on hand hygiene practices reported a reduced risk of contracting SARS and Influenza OR 0.95 and 95% CI = 0.83-1.08. Further two studies that looked at combined use of face masks and hand hygiene interventions showed the effectiveness in controlling the transmission of influenza OR 0.94 and 95% CI = 0.58-1.54. Nine studies on social distancing intervention demonstrated the importance of physical distance through closure of learning institutions on the transmission dynamics of disease. The evidence confirms the use of face masks, good hand hygiene and social distancing as community interventions are effective to control the spread of SARS and influenza in LMICs. However, the effectiveness of community interventions in LMICs should be informed by adherence of the mitigation measures and contextual factors taking into account the best practices. The study has shown gaps in adherence/compliance of the interventions, hence a need for robust intervention studies to better inform the evidence on compliance of the interventions. Nevertheless, this rapid review of currently best available evidence might inform interim guidance on similar respiratory infectious diseases like Covid-19 in Kenya and similar LMIC context.

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Nature beyond control: how expectations should inform decisions about human germline engineering.

Publications

Nature beyond control: how expectations should inform decisions about human germline engineering.

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