Dataset Information

The Minnesota SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:A previous Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco control policy model is extended to more recent years and to include smokeless tobacco use. METHODS:Using data from the 1993 Tobacco Use Supplement and information on state policies, the Minnesota SimSmoke model was updated and extended to incorporate smokeless tobacco (both exclusive and dual use) and smokeless tobacco-attributable deaths. The model was then validated against the 2002, 2006/2007, and 2014/2015 Tobacco Use Supplement and the 1999, 2007, 2014, and 2018 Minnesota Adult Tobacco Survey and used to estimate the impact of policies implemented between 1993 and 2018. Analysis was conducted in April 2019. RESULTS:The model validated well for cigarette and earlier smokeless tobacco use, but it predicted smokeless tobacco use less well in recent years. The model projected that male (female) smoking prevalence was 35% (36%) lower in relative terms by 2018 and 43% (44%) lower by 2040 owing to policies, with lesser reductions projected for male smokeless tobacco use. Tobacco-attributable deaths were reduced by 7,800 by 2018 and 46,900 by 2040. Price increases, primarily through taxes, were projected to have had the greatest impact on cigarette use followed by smoke-free air laws, cessation treatment policies, tobacco control campaign expenditures, and youth access enforcement. Similar effects were projected for smokeless tobacco use, except that smoke-free air laws had smaller effects. CONCLUSIONS:As cigarettes remain the dominant form of nicotine delivery product, cigarette-oriented policies may be an effective means of reducing the use of all nicotine delivery products. However, noncigarette-oriented policies may also play an important role.

SUBMITTER: Levy DT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6756173 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Minnesota SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use.

Levy David T DT Yuan Zhe Z Li Yameng Y St Claire Ann W AW Schillo Barbara A BA

American journal of preventive medicine 20191001 4

<h4>Introduction</h4>A previous Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco control policy model is extended to more recent years and to include smokeless tobacco use.<h4>Methods</h4>Using data from the 1993 Tobacco Use Supplement and information on state policies, the Minnesota SimSmoke model was updated and extended to incorporate smokeless tobacco (both exclusive and dual use) and smokeless tobacco-attributable deaths. The model was then validated against the 2002, 2006/2007, and 2014/2015 Tobacco Use Supplem ...[more]

PMID: 31542143

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Project description:IntroductionSmokeless tobacco (ST) was consumed by 356 million people globally in 2017. Recent evidence shows that ST consumption is responsible for an estimated 652 494 all-cause deaths across the globe annually. The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) was negotiated in 2003 and ratified in 2005 to implement effective tobacco control measures. While the policy measures enacted through various tobacco control laws have been effective in reducing the incidence and prevalence of smoking, the impact of ST-related policies (within WHO FCTC and beyond) on ST use is under-researched and not collated.Methods and analysisA systematic review will be conducted to collate all available ST-related policies implemented across various countries and assess their impact on ST use. The following databases will be searched: Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Scopus, EconLit, ISI Web of Science, Cochrane Library (CENTRAL), African Index Medicus, LILACS, Scientific Electronic Library Online, Index Medicus for the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Index Medicus for South-East Asia Region, Western Pacific Region Index Medicus and WHO Library Database, as well as Google search engine and country-specific government websites. All ST-related policy documents (FCTC and non-FCTC) will be included. Results will be limited to literature published since 2005 in English and regional languages (Bengali, Hindi and Urdu). Two reviewers will independently employ two-stage screening to determine inclusion. The Effective Public Health Practice Project's 'Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies' will be used to record ratings of quality and risk of bias among studies selected for inclusion. Data will be extracted using a standardised form. Meta-analysis and narrative synthesis will be used.Ethics and disseminationPermission for ethics exemption of the review was obtained from the Centre for Chronic Disease Control's Institutional Ethics Committee, India (CCDC_IEC_06_2020; dated 16 April 2020). The results will be disseminated through publications in a peer-reviewed journal and will be presented in national and international conferences.Prospero registration numberCRD42020191946.

Project description:ObjectiveTo use a computer simulation model to project the potential impact in China of tobacco control measures on smoking, as recommended by the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), being fully implemented.DesignModelling study.SettingChina.PopulationMales and females aged 15-74 years.InterventionIncremental impact of more complete implementation of WHO FCTC policies simulated using SimSmoke, a Markov computer simulation model of tobacco smoking prevalence, smoking attributable deaths, and the impact of tobacco control policies. Data on China's adult population, current and former smoking prevalence, initiation and cessation rates, and past policy levels were entered into SimSmoke in order to predict past smoking rates and to project future status quo rates. The model was validated by comparing predicted smoking prevalence with smoking prevalence measured in tobacco surveys from 1996-2010.Main outcome measuresProjected future smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths from 2013-50.ResultsStatus quo tobacco policy simulations projected a decline in smoking prevalence from 51.3% in 2015 to 46.5% by 2050 in males and from 2.1% to 1.3% in females. Of the individual FCTC recommended tobacco control policies, increasing the tobacco excise tax to 75% of the retail price was projected to be the most effective, incrementally reducing current smoking compared with the status quo by 12.9% by 2050. Complete and simultaneous implementation of all FCTC policies was projected to incrementally reduce smoking by about 40% relative to the 2050 status quo levels and to prevent approximately 12.8 million smoking attributable deaths and 154 million life years lost by 2050.ConclusionsComplete implementation of WHO FCTC recommended policies would prevent more than 12.8 million smoking attributable deaths in China by 2050. Implementation of FCTC policies would alleviate a substantial portion of the tobacco related health burden that threatens to slow China's extraordinary gains in life expectancy and prosperity.

Project description:BackgroundBrazil has reduced its smoking rate by about 50% in the last 20 y. During that time period, strong tobacco control policies were implemented. This paper estimates the effect of these stricter policies on smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality, and the effect that additional policies may have.Methods and findingsThe model was developed using the SimSmoke tobacco control policy model. Using policy, population, and smoking data for Brazil, the model assesses the effect on premature deaths of cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, marketing restrictions, packaging requirements, cessation treatment programs, and youth access restrictions. We estimate the effect of past policies relative to a counterfactual of policies kept to 1989 levels, and the effect of stricter future policies. Male and female smoking prevalence in Brazil have fallen by about half since 1989, which represents a 46% (lower and upper bounds: 28%-66%) relative reduction compared to the 2010 prevalence under the counterfactual scenario of policies held to 1989 levels. Almost half of that 46% reduction is explained by price increases, 14% by smoke-free air laws, 14% by marketing restrictions, 8% by health warnings, 6% by mass media campaigns, and 10% by cessation treatment programs. As a result of the past policies, a total of almost 420,000 (260,000-715,000) deaths had been averted by 2010, increasing to almost 7 million (4.5 million-10.3 million) deaths projected by 2050. Comparing future implementation of a set of stricter policies to a scenario with 2010 policies held constant, smoking prevalence by 2050 could be reduced by another 39% (29%-54%), and 1.3 million (0.9 million-2.0 million) out of 9 million future premature deaths could be averted.ConclusionsBrazil provides one of the outstanding public health success stories in reducing deaths due to smoking, and serves as a model for other low and middle income nations. However, a set of stricter policies could further reduce smoking and save many additional lives. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Dataset Information

The Minnesota SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use.

Publications

The Minnesota SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use.

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