The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Nondaily smoking has been on the rise, especially in Mexico. While Mexico has strengthened its tobacco control policies, their effects on nondaily smokers have gone largely unexamined. We developed a simulation model to estimate the impact of tobacco control policies on daily and nondaily smoking in Mexico.Methods
A previously validated Mexico SimSmoke model that estimated overall trends in smoking prevalence from 2002 through 2013 was extended to 2018 and adapted to distinguish daily and nondaily smoking prevalence. The model was then validated using data from Mexican surveys through 2016. To gauge the potential effects of policies, we compared the trends in smoking under current policies with trends from policies kept at their 2002 levels.Results
Between 2002 and 2016, Mexico SimSmoke underestimated the reduction in male and female daily smoking rates. For nondaily smoking, SimSmoke predicted a decline among both males and females, while survey rates showed increasing rates in both genders, primarily among ages 15-44. Of the total reduction in smoking rates predicted by the model by 2018, tax policies account for more than 55%, followed by health warnings, cessation treatment, smoke-free air laws, and tobacco control spending.Conclusions
Although Mexico SimSmoke did not successfully explain trends in daily and nondaily smoking, it helps to identify gaps in surveillance and policy evaluation for nondaily smokers. Future research should consider appropriate measures of nondaily smoking prevalence, trajectories between daily and nondaily smoking, and the separate impact of tobacco control policies on each group.
SUBMITTER: Sanchez-Romero LM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8216521 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundBrazil has reduced its smoking rate by about 50% in the last 20 y. During that time period, strong tobacco control policies were implemented. This paper estimates the effect of these stricter policies on smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality, and the effect that additional policies may have.Methods and findingsThe model was developed using the SimSmoke tobacco control policy model. Using policy, population, and smoking data for Brazil, the model assesses the effect on premature deaths of cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, marketing restrictions, packaging requirements, cessation treatment programs, and youth access restrictions. We estimate the effect of past policies relative to a counterfactual of policies kept to 1989 levels, and the effect of stricter future policies. Male and female smoking prevalence in Brazil have fallen by about half since 1989, which represents a 46% (lower and upper bounds: 28%-66%) relative reduction compared to the 2010 prevalence under the counterfactual scenario of policies held to 1989 levels. Almost half of that 46% reduction is explained by price increases, 14% by smoke-free air laws, 14% by marketing restrictions, 8% by health warnings, 6% by mass media campaigns, and 10% by cessation treatment programs. As a result of the past policies, a total of almost 420,000 (260,000-715,000) deaths had been averted by 2010, increasing to almost 7 million (4.5 million-10.3 million) deaths projected by 2050. Comparing future implementation of a set of stricter policies to a scenario with 2010 policies held constant, smoking prevalence by 2050 could be reduced by another 39% (29%-54%), and 1.3 million (0.9 million-2.0 million) out of 9 million future premature deaths could be averted.ConclusionsBrazil provides one of the outstanding public health success stories in reducing deaths due to smoking, and serves as a model for other low and middle income nations. However, a set of stricter policies could further reduce smoking and save many additional lives. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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Project description:This study examined transitions in tobacco products use among Mexican smokers and dual users. Data were analyzed from exclusive smokers (n = 2,946) and dual users (n = 1,643) recruited from an online consumer research panel and surveyed every-four months from November 2018 to April 2021. For exclusive smokers, estimated transitions were (time "t + 1" four months after prior survey): a) remain as exclusive smokers; b) dual use; c) exclusive e-cigarette use or quit both products. Among dual users, transitions analyzed were: a) remain as dual user; b) exclusive smoker; c) exclusive e-cigarette user or quit both products. Multinomial models regressed transitions at "t + 1" on time "t" for control variables. Most exclusive smokers (81%) remained as such, 12.6% transitioned to dual use, 2.3% to exclusive e-cigarette use, and 4% quitted both products. Exclusive smokers were more likely to transition to dual use if they recently attempted to quit (AOR = 1.45) or had partners/family or friends who used e-cigarettes (AOR = 2.47 & 2.56 respectively). Most dual users (74.8%) remained as dual users, 20.4% transitioned to exclusive smoking, 1.6% transitioned to exclusive e-cigarette use, and 3.2% quitted both products. Dual users were more likely to transition to exclusive smoking if they had lower educational attainment, recently attempted to quit e-cigarettes (AOR = 1.70). Having friends who use e-cigarettes (AOR = 0.29) and higher smoking dependence (AOR = 0.55) were associated with a lower likelihood of quitting. Recent quit attempts and e-cigarette use among close social network members may explain the short-term transitions, though longer follow-up is needed to assess sustained smoking cessation.
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Project description:Introduction:Genetic variants associated with nicotine dependence have previously been identified, primarily in European-ancestry populations. No genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been reported for smoking behaviors in Hispanics/Latinos in the United States and Latin America, who are of mixed ancestry with European, African, and American Indigenous components. Methods:We examined genetic associations with smoking behaviors in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) (N = 12 741 with smoking data, 5119 ever-smokers), using ~2.3 million genotyped variants imputed to the 1000 Genomes Project phase 3. Mixed logistic regression models accounted for population structure, sampling, relatedness, sex, and age. Results:The known region of CHRNA5, which encodes the ?5 cholinergic nicotinic receptor subunit, was associated with heavy smoking at genome-wide significance (p ? 5 × 10-8) in a comparison of 1929 ever-smokers reporting cigarettes per day (CPD) > 10 versus 3156 reporting CPD ? 10. The functional variant rs16969968 in CHRNA5 had a p value of 2.20 × 10-7 and odds ratio (OR) of 1.32 for the minor allele (A); its minor allele frequency was 0.22 overall and similar across Hispanic/Latino background groups (Central American = 0.17; South American = 0.19; Mexican = 0.18; Puerto Rican = 0.22; Cuban = 0.29; Dominican = 0.19). CHRNA4 on chromosome 20 attained p < 10-4, supporting prior findings in non-Hispanics. For nondaily smoking, which is prevalent in Hispanic/Latino smokers, compared to daily smoking, loci on chromosomes 2 and 4 achieved genome-wide significance; replication attempts were limited by small Hispanic/Latino sample sizes. Conclusions:Associations of nicotinic receptor gene variants with smoking, first reported in non-Hispanic European-ancestry populations, generalized to Hispanics/Latinos despite different patterns of smoking behavior. Implications:We conducted the first large-scale genome-wide association study (GWAS) of smoking behavior in a US Hispanic/Latino cohort, and the first GWAS of daily/nondaily smoking in any population. Results show that the region of the nicotinic receptor subunit gene CHRNA5, which in non-Hispanic European-ancestry smokers has been associated with heavy smoking as well as cessation and treatment efficacy, is also significantly associated with heavy smoking in this Hispanic/Latino cohort. The results are an important addition to understanding the impact of genetic variants in understudied Hispanic/Latino smokers.
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