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Seasonal variation and etiologic inferences of childhood pneumonia and diarrhea mortality in India.

ABSTRACT: Control of pneumonia and diarrhea mortality in India requires understanding of their etiologies. We combined time series analysis of seasonality, climate region, and clinical syndromes from 243,000 verbal autopsies in the nationally representative Million Death Study. Pneumonia mortality at 1 month-14 years was greatest in January (Rate ratio (RR) 1.66, 99% CI 1.51-1.82; versus the April minimum). Higher RRs at 1-11 months suggested respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) etiology. India's humid subtropical region experienced a unique summer pneumonia mortality. Diarrhea mortality peaked in July (RR 1.66, 1.48-1.85) and January (RR 1.37, 1.23-1.48), while deaths with fever and bloody diarrhea (indicating enteroinvasive bacterial etiology) showed little seasonality. Combining mortality at ages 1-59 months with prevalence surveys, we estimate 40,600 pneumonia deaths from Streptococcus pneumoniae, 20,700 from RSV, 12,600 from influenza, and 7200 from Haemophilus influenzae type b and 24,700 diarrheal deaths from rotavirus occurred in 2015. Careful mortality studies can elucidate etiologies and inform vaccine introduction.

SUBMITTER: Farrar DS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6759316 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Seasonal variation and etiologic inferences of childhood pneumonia and diarrhea mortality in India.

Farrar Daniel S DS Awasthi Shally S Fadel Shaza A SA Kumar Rajesh R Sinha Anju A Fu Sze Hang SH Wahl Brian B Morris Shaun K SK Jha Prabhat P

eLife 20190827

Control of pneumonia and diarrhea mortality in India requires understanding of their etiologies. We combined time series analysis of seasonality, climate region, and clinical syndromes from 243,000 verbal autopsies in the nationally representative Million Death Study. Pneumonia mortality at 1 month-14 years was greatest in January (Rate ratio (RR) 1.66, 99% CI 1.51-1.82; versus the April minimum). Higher RRs at 1-11 months suggested respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) etiology. India's humid subtr ...[more]

PMID: 31453804

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Project description:ImportanceIn rural India, as in many developing countries, childhood mortality remains high and the quality of health care available is low. Improving care in such settings, where most health care practitioners do not have formal training, requires an assessment of the practitioners' knowledge of appropriate care and the actual care delivered (the know-do gap).ObjectiveTo assess the knowledge of local health care practitioners and the quality of care provided by them for childhood diarrhea and pneumonia in rural Bihar, India.Design, setting, and participantsWe conducted an observational, cross-sectional study of the knowledge and practice of 340 health care practitioners concerning the diagnosis and treatment of childhood diarrhea and pneumonia in Bihar, India, from June 29 through September 8, 2012. We used data from vignette interviews and unannounced standardized patients (SPs).Main outcomes and measuresFor SPs and vignettes, practitioner performance was measured using the numbers of key diagnostic questions asked and examinations conducted. The know-do gap was calculated by comparing fractions of practitioners asking key diagnostic questions on each method. Multivariable regressions examined the relation among diagnostic performance, prescription of potentially harmful treatments, and the practitioners' characteristics. We also examined correct treatment recommended by practitioners with both methods.ResultsPractitioners asked a mean of 2.9 diagnostic questions and suggested a mean of 0.3 examinations in the diarrhea vignette; mean numbers were 1.4 and 0.8, respectively, for the pneumonia vignette. Although oral rehydration salts, the correct treatment for diarrhea, are commonly available, only 3.5% of practitioners offered them in the diarrhea vignette. With SPs, no practitioner offered the correct treatment for diarrhea, and 13.0% of practitioners offered the correct treatment for pneumonia. Diarrhea treatment has a large know-do gap; practitioners asked diagnostic questions more frequently in vignettes than for SPs. Although only 20.9% of practitioners prescribed treatments that were potentially harmful in the diarrhea vignettes, 71.9% offered them to SPs (P < .001). Unqualified practitioners were more likely to prescribe potentially harmful treatments for diarrhea (adjusted odds ratio, 5.11 [95% CI, 1.24-21.13]). Higher knowledge scores were associated with better performance for treating diarrhea but not pneumonia.Conclusions and relevancePractitioners performed poorly with vignettes and SPs, with large know-do gaps, especially for childhood diarrhea. Efforts to improve health care for major causes of childhood mortality should emphasize strategies that encourage pediatric health care practitioners to diagnose and manage these conditions correctly through better monitoring and incentives in addition to practitioner training initiatives.

Project description:BACKGROUND:With the aim of populating the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) with parameters of effectiveness of existing interventions, we conducted a systematic review of the literature assessing the effect of pneumonia case management on mortality from childhood pneumonia. METHODS:This review covered the following interventions: community case management with antibiotic treatment, and hospital treatment with antibiotics, oxygen, zinc and vitamin A. Pneumonia mortality outcomes were sought where available but data were also recorded on secondary outcomes. We summarized results from randomized controlled trials (RCTs), cluster RCTs, quasi-experimental studies and observational studies across outcome measures using standard meta-analysis methods and used a set of standardized rules developed for the purpose of populating the LiST with required parameters, which dealt with the issues of comparability of the studies in a uniform way across a spectrum of childhood conditions. RESULTS:We estimate that community case management of pneumonia could result in a 70% reduction in mortality from pneumonia in 0-5-year-old children. In contrast treatment of pneumonia episodes with zinc and vitamin A is ineffective in reducing pneumonia mortality. There is insufficient evidence to make a quantitative estimate of the effect of hospital case management on pneumonia mortality based on the published data. CONCLUSION:The available evidence reinforces the effectiveness of community and hospital case management with World Health Organization-recommended antibiotics and the lack of effect of zinc and vitamin A supportive treatment for children with pneumonia. Evidence from one trial demonstrates the effectiveness of oxygen therapy but further research is required to give higher quality evidence so that an effect estimate can be incorporated into the LiST model. We identified no trials that separately evaluated the effectiveness of other supportive care interventions. The summary estimates of effect on pneumonia mortality will inform the LiST model.

Dataset Information

Seasonal variation and etiologic inferences of childhood pneumonia and diarrhea mortality in India.

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Seasonal variation and etiologic inferences of childhood pneumonia and diarrhea mortality in India.

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