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A modeling framework to inform preexposure prophylaxis initiation and retention scale-up in the context of 'Getting to Zero' initiatives.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE(S):'Getting to Zero' (GTZ) initiatives aim to eliminate new HIV infections over a projected time frame. Increased preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake among populations with the highest HIV incidence, such as young Black MSM, is necessary to accomplish this aim. Agent-based network models (ABNMs) can help guide policymakers on strategies to increase PrEP uptake. DESIGN:Effective PrEP implementation requires a model that incorporates the dynamics of interventions and dynamic feedbacks across multiple levels including virus, host, behavior, networks, and population. ABNMs are a powerful tool to incorporate these processes. METHODS:An ABNM, designed for and parameterized using data for young Black MSM in Illinois, was used to compare the impact of PrEP initiation and retention interventions on HIV incidence after 10 years, consistent with GTZ timelines. Initiation interventions selected individuals in serodiscordant partnerships, or in critical sexual network positions, and compared with a controlled setting where PrEP initiators were randomly selected. Retention interventions increased the mean duration of PrEP use. A combination intervention modeled concurrent increases in PrEP initiation and retention. RESULTS:Selecting HIV-negative individuals for PrEP initiation in serodiscordant partnerships resulted in the largest HIV incidence declines, relative to other interventions. For a given PrEP uptake level, distributing effort between increasing PrEP initiation and retention in combination was approximately as effective as increasing only one exclusively. CONCLUSION:Simulation results indicate that expanded PrEP interventions alone may not accomplish GTZ goals within a decade, and integrated scale-up of PrEP, antiretroviral therapy, and other interventions might be necessary.

SUBMITTER: Khanna AS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6760326 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A modeling framework to inform preexposure prophylaxis initiation and retention scale-up in the context of 'Getting to Zero' initiatives.

Khanna Aditya S AS Schneider John A JA Collier Nicholson N Ozik Jonathan J Issema Rodal R di Paola Angela A Skwara Abigail A Ramachandran Arthi A Webb Jeannette J Brewer Russell R Cunningham William W Hilliard Charles C Ramani Santhoshini S Fujimoto Kayo K Harawa Nina N

AIDS (London, England) 20191001 12

<h4>Objective(s)</h4>'Getting to Zero' (GTZ) initiatives aim to eliminate new HIV infections over a projected time frame. Increased preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake among populations with the highest HIV incidence, such as young Black MSM, is necessary to accomplish this aim. Agent-based network models (ABNMs) can help guide policymakers on strategies to increase PrEP uptake.<h4>Design</h4>Effective PrEP implementation requires a model that incorporates the dynamics of interventions and dyn ...[more]

PMID: 31490212

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Project description:Objective(s)Getting to Zero (GTZ) is an Illinois-based HIV elimination initiative. GTZ identifies younger Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM) as a population who have experienced disproportionate HIV incidence. Rising stimulant use among YBMSM has been determined to impede engagement in the HIV prevention and treatment continua for reducing onward HIV transmission. Given the limited development of dedicated or culturally appropriate interventions for this population, this modeling study explores the impact of stimulant use on HIV incidence among YBMSM and assesses the impact of interventions to treat stimulant use on downstream HIV transmission to achieve GTZ goals.MethodsA previously developed agent-based network model (ABNM), calibrated using data for YBMSM in Illinois, was extended to incorporate the impact of stimulant use (methamphetamines, crack/cocaine, and ecstasy) on sexual networks and engagement in HIV treatment and prevention continua. The model simulated the impact of a residential behavioral intervention (BI) for reducing stimulant use and an outpatient biomedical intervention (mirtazapine) for treating methamphetamine use. The downstream impact of these interventions on population-level HIV incidence was the primary intervention outcome.ResultsBaseline simulated annual HIV incidence in the ABNM was 6.93 [95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 6.83,7.04] per 100 person years (py) and 453 [95% UI: 445.9,461.2] new infections annually. A residential rehabilitation intervention targeted to 25% of stimulant using persons yielded a 27.1% reduction in the annual number of new infections. Initiating about 50% of methamphetamine using persons on mirtazapine reduced the overall HIV incidence among YBMSM by about 11.2%. A 30% increase in antiretroviral treatment (ART) and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake in the non-stimulant using YBMSM population combined with a 25% uptake of BI for stimulant using persons produces an HIV incidence consistent with HIV elimination targets (about 200 infections/year) identified in the GTZ initiative.ConclusionsBehavioral and biomedical interventions to treat stimulant use, in addition to expanding overall ART and PrEP uptake, are likely to enhance progress towards achieving GTZ goals.

Project description:Reproductive-age women need effective interventions to prevent the acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection.We conducted a randomized, placebo-controlled trial to assess daily treatment with oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), oral tenofovir-emtricitabine (TDF-FTC), or 1% tenofovir (TFV) vaginal gel as preexposure prophylaxis against HIV-1 infection in women in South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. HIV-1 testing was performed monthly, and plasma TFV levels were assessed quarterly.Of 12,320 women who were screened, 5029 were enrolled in the study. The rate of retention in the study was 91% during 5509 person-years of follow-up. A total of 312 HIV-1 infections occurred; the incidence of HIV-1 infection was 5.7 per 100 person-years. In the modified intention-to-treat analysis, the effectiveness was -49.0% with TDF (hazard ratio for infection, 1.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97 to 2.29), -4.4% with TDF-FTC (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.49), and 14.5% with TFV gel (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.61 to 1.21). In a random sample, TFV was detected in 30%, 29%, and 25% of available plasma samples from participants randomly assigned to receive TDF, TDF-FTC, and TFV gel, respectively. Independent predictors of TFV detection included being married, being older than 25 years of age, and being multiparous. Detection of TFV in plasma was negatively associated with characteristics predictive of HIV-1 acquisition. Elevations of serum creatinine levels were seen more frequently among participants randomly assigned to receive oral TDF-FTC than among those assigned to receive oral placebo (1.3% vs. 0.2%, P=0.004). We observed no significant differences in the frequencies of other adverse events.None of the drug regimens we evaluated reduced the rates of HIV-1 acquisition in an intention-to-treat analysis. Adherence to study drugs was low. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health; VOICE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00705679.).

Dataset Information

A modeling framework to inform preexposure prophylaxis initiation and retention scale-up in the context of 'Getting to Zero' initiatives.

Publications

A modeling framework to inform preexposure prophylaxis initiation and retention scale-up in the context of 'Getting to Zero' initiatives.

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