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Using the basic reproduction number to assess the risk of transmission of lumpy skin disease virus by biting insects.

ABSTRACT: In recent years, lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) has emerged as a major threat to cattle outside Africa, where it is endemic. Although evidence suggests that LSDV is transmitted by the bites of blood sucking arthropods, few studies have assessed the risk of transmission posed by particular vector species. Here this risk is assessed by calculating the basic reproduction number (R₀ ) for transmission of LSDV by five species of biting insect: the stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans, the biting midge, Culicoides nubeculosus, and three mosquito species, Aedes aegypti, Anopheles stephensi, and Culex quinquefasciatus. Parameters relating to mechanical transmission of LSDV were estimated using new analyses of previously published data from transmission experiments, while vector life history parameters were derived from the published literature. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were used to compute R₀ for each species and to identify those parameters which influence its magnitude. Results suggest that S. calcitrans is likely to be the most efficient at transmitting LSDV, with Ae. aegypti also an efficient vector. By contrast, C. nubeculosus, An. stephensi, and Cx. quinquefasciatus are likely to be inefficient vectors of LSDV. However, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the estimates of R₀ , reflecting uncertainty in most of the constituent parameters. Sensitivity analysis suggests that future experimental work should focus on estimating the probability of transmission from insect to bovine and on the virus inactivation rate in insects.

SUBMITTER: Gubbins S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6767157 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using the basic reproduction number to assess the risk of transmission of lumpy skin disease virus by biting insects.

Gubbins Simon S

Transboundary and emerging diseases 20190515 5

In recent years, lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) has emerged as a major threat to cattle outside Africa, where it is endemic. Although evidence suggests that LSDV is transmitted by the bites of blood sucking arthropods, few studies have assessed the risk of transmission posed by particular vector species. Here this risk is assessed by calculating the basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub> ) for transmission of LSDV by five species of biting insect: the stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans, the biti ...[more]

PMID: 31038286

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Project description:The transmission of "lumpy skin disease virus" (LSDV) has prompted intensive research efforts due to the rapid spread and high impact of the disease in recent years, especially in Eastern Europe and Balkan countries. In this study, we experimentally evaluate the vaccine-derived virulent recombinant LSDV strain (Saratov/2017) and provide solid evidence on the capacity of the virus for transmission in a vector-proof environment. In the 60-day long experiment, we used inoculated bulls (IN group) and two groups of in-contact animals (C1 and C2), with the former (C1) being in contact with the inoculated animals at the onset of the trial and the latter (C2) being introduced at day 33 of the experiment. The infection in both groups of contact animals was confirmed clinically, serologically and virologically, and viremia was demonstrated in blood, nasal and ocular excretions, using molecular tools. Further studies into LSDV biology are a priority to gain insights into whether the hypothesized indirect contact mode evidenced in this study is a de novo-created feature, absent from both parental stains of the novel (recombinant) LSDV isolate used, or whether it was dormant, but then unlocked by the process of genetic recombination. Author summary: In global terms, LSD has been termed a "neglected disease" due to its historic natural occurrence of being restricted to Africa and, occasionally, Israel. However, after its slow spread throughout the Middle East, the disease is now experiencing a resurgence of research interest following a recent and rapid spread into more northern latitudes. Given the dearth of solid findings on potential transmission mechanisms, no efficient or reliable control program currently exists, which does not involve the use of live attenuated vaccines or stamping out policies - both of which are controversial for implementation in non-endemic regions or countries. The vector-borne mode is the only working concept currently available, but with scarce evidence to support the aggressive spread northwards - except for human-assisted spread, including legal or illegal animal transportation. The emergence of outbreaks is not consistently linked to weather conditions, with the potential for new outbreaks to occur and spread rapidly. Here, for the first time, we provide evidence for indirect contact-mode transmission for a naturally-occurring recombinant LSDV isolated from the field. In an insect-proof facility, we obtained solid evidence that the novel LSDV strain can pass to in-contact animals. Given the recombinant nature of the virus utilised, its genetic background relating to the observed transmission pattern within the study needs to be delineated.

Project description:UnlabelledUnderstanding the transmission dynamics of pathogens is essential to determine the epidemiology, ecology, and ways of controlling enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) in animals and their environments. Our objective was to estimate the epidemiological fitness of common EHEC strains in cattle populations. For that purpose, we developed a Markov chain model to characterize the dynamics of 7 serogroups of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, O145, and O157) in cattle production environments based on a set of cross-sectional data on infection prevalence in 2 years in two U.S. states. The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated using a Bayesian framework for each serogroup based on two criteria (using serogroup alone [the O-group data] and using O serogroup, Shiga toxin gene[s], and intimin [eae] gene together [the EHEC data]). In addition, correlations between external covariates (e.g., location, ambient temperature, dietary, and probiotic usage) and prevalence/R0 were quantified. R0 estimates varied substantially among different EHEC serogroups, with EHEC O157 having an R0 of >1 (∼1.5) and all six other EHEC serogroups having an R0 of less than 1. Using the O-group data substantially increased R0 estimates for the O26, O45, and O103 serogroups (R0 > 1) but not for the others. Different covariates had distinct influences on different serogroups: the coefficients for each covariate were different among serogroups. Our modeling and analysis of this system can be readily expanded to other pathogen systems in order to estimate the pathogen and external factors that influence spread of infectious agents.ImportanceIn this paper we describe a Bayesian modeling framework to estimate basic reproduction numbers of multiple serotypes of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli according to a cross-sectional study. We then coupled a compartmental model to reconstruct the infection dynamics of these serotypes and quantify their risk in the population. We incorporated different sensitivity levels of detecting different serotypes and evaluated their potential influence on the estimation of basic reproduction numbers.

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Using the basic reproduction number to assess the risk of transmission of lumpy skin disease virus by biting insects.

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Using the basic reproduction number to assess the risk of transmission of lumpy skin disease virus by biting insects.

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