Dataset Information

Predictive model for acute respiratory distress syndrome events in ICU patients in China using machine learning algorithms: a secondary analysis of a cohort study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:To develop a machine learning model for predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) events through commonly available parameters, including baseline characteristics and clinical and laboratory parameters. METHODS:A secondary analysis of a multi-centre prospective observational cohort study from five hospitals in Beijing, China, was conducted from January 1, 2011, to August 31, 2014. A total of 296 patients at risk for developing ARDS admitted to medical intensive care units (ICUs) were included. We applied a random forest approach to identify the best set of predictors out of 42 variables measured on day 1 of admission. RESULTS:All patients were randomly divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) sets. Additionally, these patients were followed daily and assessed according to the Berlin definition. The model obtained an average area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.82 and yielded a predictive accuracy of 83%. For the first time, four new biomarkers were included in the model: decreased minimum haematocrit, glucose, and sodium and increased minimum white blood cell (WBC) count. CONCLUSIONS:This newly established machine learning-based model shows good predictive ability in Chinese patients with ARDS. External validation studies are necessary to confirm the generalisability of our approach across populations and treatment practices.

SUBMITTER: Ding XF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6771100 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictive model for acute respiratory distress syndrome events in ICU patients in China using machine learning algorithms: a secondary analysis of a cohort study.

Ding Xian-Fei XF Li Jin-Bo JB Liang Huo-Yan HY Wang Zong-Yu ZY Jiao Ting-Ting TT Liu Zhuang Z Yi Liang L Bian Wei-Shuai WS Wang Shu-Peng SP Zhu Xi X Sun Tong-Wen TW

Journal of translational medicine 20191001 1

<h4>Background</h4>To develop a machine learning model for predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) events through commonly available parameters, including baseline characteristics and clinical and laboratory parameters.<h4>Methods</h4>A secondary analysis of a multi-centre prospective observational cohort study from five hospitals in Beijing, China, was conducted from January 1, 2011, to August 31, 2014. A total of 296 patients at risk for developing ARDS admitted to medical intens ...[more]

PMID: 31570096

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Project description:BackgroundHeterogeneity in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), as a consequence of its non-specific definition, has led to a multitude of negative randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Investigators have sought to identify heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) in RCTs using clustering algorithms. We evaluated the proficiency of several commonly-used machine-learning algorithms to identify clusters where HTE may be detected.MethodsFive unsupervised: Latent class analysis (LCA), K-means, partition around medoids, hierarchical, and spectral clustering; and four supervised algorithms: model-based recursive partitioning, Causal Forest (CF), and X-learner with Random Forest (XL-RF) and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees were individually applied to three prior ARDS RCTs. Clinical data and research protein biomarkers were used as partitioning variables, with the latter excluded for secondary analyses. For a clustering schema, HTE was evaluated based on the interaction term of treatment group and cluster with day-90 mortality as the dependent variable.FindingsNo single algorithm identified clusters with significant HTE in all three trials. LCA, XL-RF, and CF identified HTE most frequently (2/3 RCTs). Important partitioning variables in the unsupervised approaches were consistent across algorithms and RCTs. In supervised models, important partitioning variables varied between algorithms and across RCTs. In algorithms where clusters demonstrated HTE in the same trial, patients frequently interchanged clusters from treatment-benefit to treatment-harm clusters across algorithms. LCA aside, results from all other algorithms were subject to significant alteration in cluster composition and HTE with random seed change. Removing research biomarkers as partitioning variables greatly reduced the chances of detecting HTE across all algorithms.InterpretationMachine-learning algorithms were inconsistent in their abilities to identify clusters with significant HTE. Protein biomarkers were essential in identifying clusters with HTE. Investigations using machine-learning approaches to identify clusters to seek HTE require cautious interpretation.FundingNIGMS R35 GM142992 (PS), NHLBI R35 HL140026 (CSC); NIGMS R01 GM123193, Department of Defense W81XWH-21-1-0009, NIA R21 AG068720, NIDA R01 DA051464 (MMC).

Project description:ObjectivesTo identify differentially expressed genes and networks from the airway cells within 72 hours of intubation of children with and without pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. To test the use of a neutrophil transcription reporter assay to identify immunogenic responses to airway fluid from children with and without pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingThirty-six bed academic PICU.PatientsFifty-four immunocompetent children, 28 with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, who were between 2 days to 18 years old within 72 hours of intubation for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsWe applied machine learning methods to a Nanostring transcriptomics on primary airway cells and a neutrophil reporter assay to discover gene networks differentiating pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome from no pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. An analysis of moderate or severe pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome versus no or mild pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome was performed. Pathway network visualization was used to map pathways from 62 genes selected by ElasticNet associated with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. The Janus kinase/signal transducer and activator of transcription pathway emerged. Support vector machine performed best for the primary airway cells and the neutrophil reporter assay using a leave-one-out cross-validation with an area under the operating curve and 95% CI of 0.75 (0.63-0.87) and 0.80 (0.70-1.0), respectively.ConclusionsWe identified gene networks important to the pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome airway immune response using semitargeted transcriptomics from primary airway cells and a neutrophil reporter assay. These pathways will drive mechanistic investigations into pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. Further studies are needed to validate our findings and to test our models.

Dataset Information

Predictive model for acute respiratory distress syndrome events in ICU patients in China using machine learning algorithms: a secondary analysis of a cohort study.

Publications

Predictive model for acute respiratory distress syndrome events in ICU patients in China using machine learning algorithms: a secondary analysis of a cohort study.

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