Dataset Information

Consensus and uncertainty in the geographic range of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the contiguous United States: Multi-model assessment and synthesis.

ABSTRACT: Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) mosquitoes can transmit dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. Limited surveillance has led to uncertainty regarding the geographic ranges of these vectors globally, and particularly in regions at the present-day margins of habitat suitability such as the contiguous United States. Empirical habitat suitability models based on environmental conditions can augment surveillance gaps to describe the estimated potential species ranges, but model accuracy is unclear. We identified previously published regional and global habitat suitability models for Ae. aegypti (n = 6) and Ae. albopictus (n = 8) for which adequate information was available to reproduce the models for the contiguous U.S. Using a training subset of recently updated county-level surveillance records of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and records of counties conducting surveillance, we constructed accuracy-weighted, probabilistic ensemble models from these base models. To assess accuracy and uncertainty we compared individual and ensemble model predictions of species presence or absence to both training and testing data. The ensemble models were among the most accurate and also provided calibrated probabilities of presence for each species. The quantitative probabilistic framework enabled identification of areas with high uncertainty and model bias across the U.S. where improved models or additional data could be most beneficial. The results may be of immediate utility for counties considering surveillance and control programs for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Moreover, the assessment framework can drive future efforts to provide validated quantitative estimates to support these programs at local, national, and international scales.

SUBMITTER: Monaghan AJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6786520 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Consensus and uncertainty in the geographic range of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the contiguous United States: Multi-model assessment and synthesis.

Monaghan Andrew J AJ Eisen Rebecca J RJ Eisen Lars L McAllister Janet J Savage Harry M HM Mutebi John-Paul JP Johansson Michael A MA

PLoS computational biology 20191010 10

Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) mosquitoes can transmit dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. Limited surveillance has led to uncertainty regarding the geographic ranges of these vectors globally, and particularly in regions at the present-day margins of habitat suitability such as the contiguous United States. Empirical habitat suitability models based on environmental conditions can augment surveillance gaps to describe the estimated potenti ...[more]

PMID: 31600194

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Project description:Aedes albopictus (Skuse) is an invasive mosquito that has become an important vector of chikungunya and dengue viruses. Immature Ae. albopictus thrive in backyard household containers that require treatment with larvicides and when adult populations reach pest levels or disease transmission is ongoing, adulticiding is often required. To assess the feasibility of control of USA populations, we tested the susceptibility of Ae. albopictus to chemicals representing the main insecticide classes with different modes of action: organochlorines, organophosphates, carbamates, pyrethroids, insect growth regulators (IGR), naturalytes, and biolarvicides. We characterized a susceptible reference strain of Ae. albopictus, ATM95, and tested the susceptibility of eight USA populations to five adulticides and six larvicides. We found that USA populations are broadly susceptible to currently available larvicides and adulticides. Unexpectedly, however, we found significant resistance to dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) in two Florida populations and in a New Jersey population. We also found resistance to malathion, an organophosphate, in Florida and New Jersey and reduced susceptibility to the IGRs pyriproxyfen and methoprene. All populations tested were fully susceptible to pyrethroids. Biochemical assays revealed a significant up-regulation of GSTs in DDT-resistant populations in both larval and adult stages. Also, β-esterases were up-regulated in the populations with suspected resistance to malathion. Of note, we identified a previously unknown amino acid polymorphism (Phe → Leu) in domain III of the VGSC, in a location known to be associated with pyrethroid resistance in another container-inhabiting mosquito, Aedes aegypti L. The observed DDT resistance in populations from Florida may indicate multiple introductions of this species into the USA, possibly from tropical populations. In addition, the mechanisms underlying DDT resistance often result in pyrethroid resistance, which would undermine a remaining tool for the control of Ae. albopictus. Continued monitoring of the insecticide resistance status of this species is imperative.

Dataset Information

Consensus and uncertainty in the geographic range of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the contiguous United States: Multi-model assessment and synthesis.

Publications

Consensus and uncertainty in the geographic range of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the contiguous United States: Multi-model assessment and synthesis.

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