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Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for Central Line-Associated Bloodstream Infection in Children Presenting to the Emergency Department.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:The majority of the children with a central line who present to the emergency department with fever or other signs of bacteremia do not have a central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI). Our objective was to develop a clinical prediction model for CLABSI among this group of children in order to ultimately limit unnecessary hospital admissions and antibiotic use. METHODS:We performed a nested case-control study of children with a central line who presented to the emergency department of an urban, tertiary care children's hospital between January 2010 and March 2015 and were evaluated for CLABSI with a blood culture. RESULTS:The final multivariable model developed to predict CLABSI consisted of 12 factors: age younger than 5 years, black race, use of total parenteral nutrition, tunneled central venous catheter, double-lumen catheter, absence of other bacterial infection, absence of viral upper respiratory tract infection symptoms, diarrhea, emergency department temperature greater than 39.5°C, fever prior to presentation, neutropenia, and spring/summer season. The clinical prediction score had good discrimination for CLABSI with a c-statistic of 0.81 (confidence interval, 0.77-0.85). A cut point less than 6 was associated with a sensitivity of 98.5% and a negative predictive value of 99.2% for CLABSI. CONCLUSIONS:We were able to identify risk factors and develop a clinical prediction model for CLABSI in children presenting to the emergency department. Once validated in future study, this clinical prediction model could be used to assess the need for hospitalization and/or antibiotics among this group of patients.

SUBMITTER: Figueroa-Phillips LM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6788929 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for Central Line-Associated Bloodstream Infection in Children Presenting to the Emergency Department.

Figueroa-Phillips Laura M LM Bonafide Christopher P CP Coffin Susan E SE Ross Michelle E ME Guevara James P JP

Pediatric emergency care 20201101 11

<h4>Objective</h4>The majority of the children with a central line who present to the emergency department with fever or other signs of bacteremia do not have a central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI). Our objective was to develop a clinical prediction model for CLABSI among this group of children in order to ultimately limit unnecessary hospital admissions and antibiotic use.<h4>Methods</h4>We performed a nested case-control study of children with a central line who presented to ...[more]

PMID: 30985631

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Project description:ObjectiveDevelopment and validation of clinical prediction model (CPM) for serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in children presenting to the emergency department (ED) with febrile illness, based on clinical variables, clinician's "gut feeling," and "sense of reassurance.Materials and methodsFebrile children presenting to the ED of Children's Clinical University Hospital (CCUH) between April 1, 2017 and December 31, 2018 were enrolled in a prospective observational study. Data on clinical signs and symptoms at presentation, together with clinician's "gut feeling" of something wrong and "sense of reassurance" were collected as candidate variables for CPM. Variable selection for the CPM was performed using stepwise logistic regression (forward, backward, and bidirectional); Akaike information criterion was used to limit the number of parameters and simplify the model. Bootstrapping was applied for internal validation. For external validation, the model was tested in a separate dataset of patients presenting to six regional hospitals between January 1 and March 31, 2019.ResultsThe derivation cohort consisted of 517; 54% (n = 279) were boys, and the median age was 58 months. SBI was diagnosed in 26.7% (n = 138). Validation cohort included 188 patients; the median age was 28 months, and 26.6% (n = 50) developed SBI. Two CPMs were created, namely, CPM1 consisting of six clinical variables and CPM2 with four clinical variables plus "gut feeling" and "sense of reassurance." The area under the curve (AUC) for receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of CPM1 was 0.744 (95% CI, 0.683-0.805) in the derivation cohort and 0.692 (95% CI, 0.604-0.780) in the validation cohort. AUC for CPM2 was 0.783 (0.727-0.839) and 0.752 (0.674-0.830) in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. AUC of CPM2 in validation population was significantly higher than that of CPM1 [p = 0.037, 95% CI (-0.129; -0.004)]. A clinical evaluation score was derived from CPM2 to stratify patients in "low risk," "gray area," and "high risk" for SBI.ConclusionBoth CPMs had moderate ability to predict SBI and acceptable performance in the validation cohort. Adding variables "gut feeling" and "sense of reassurance" in CPM2 improved its ability to predict SBI. More validation studies are needed for the assessment of applicability to all febrile patients presenting to ED.

Dataset Information

Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for Central Line-Associated Bloodstream Infection in Children Presenting to the Emergency Department.

Publications

Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for Central Line-Associated Bloodstream Infection in Children Presenting to the Emergency Department.

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