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Space-time dynamics of a triple epidemic: dengue, chikungunya and Zika clusters in the city of Rio de Janeiro.

ABSTRACT: Dengue, an arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, has been endemic in Brazil for decades. However, vector-control strategies have not led to a significant reduction in the disease burden and have not been sufficient to prevent chikungunya and Zika entry and establishment in the country. In Rio de Janeiro city, the first Zika and chikungunya epidemics were detected between 2015 and 2016, coinciding with a dengue epidemic. Understanding the behaviour of these diseases in a triple epidemic scenario is a necessary step for devising better interventions for prevention and outbreak response. We applied scan statistics analysis to detect spatio-temporal clustering for each disease separately and for all three simultaneously. In general, clusters were not detected in the same locations and time periods, possibly owing to competition between viruses for host resources, depletion of susceptible population, different introduction times and change in behaviour of the human population (e.g. intensified vector-control activities in response to increasing cases of a particular arbovirus). Simultaneous clusters of the three diseases usually included neighbourhoods with high population density and low socioeconomic status, particularly in the North region of the city. The use of space-time cluster detection can guide intensive interventions to high-risk locations in a timely manner, to improve clinical diagnosis and management, and pinpoint vector-control measures.

SUBMITTER: Freitas LP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6790786 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Space-time dynamics of a triple epidemic: dengue, chikungunya and Zika clusters in the city of Rio de Janeiro.

Freitas Laís Picinini LP Cruz Oswaldo Gonçalves OG Lowe Rachel R Sá Carvalho Marilia M

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20191009 1912

Dengue, an arboviral disease transmitted by <i>Aedes</i> mosquitoes, has been endemic in Brazil for decades. However, vector-control strategies have not led to a significant reduction in the disease burden and have not been sufficient to prevent chikungunya and Zika entry and establishment in the country. In Rio de Janeiro city, the first Zika and chikungunya epidemics were detected between 2015 and 2016, coinciding with a dengue epidemic. Understanding the behaviour of these diseases in a tripl ...[more]

PMID: 31594497

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Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) has been linked to central nervous system malformations in fetuses. To characterize the spectrum of ZIKV disease in pregnant women and infants, we followed patients in Rio de Janeiro to describe clinical manifestations in mothers and repercussions of acute ZIKV infection in infants.MethodsWe enrolled pregnant women in whom a rash had developed within the previous 5 days and tested blood and urine specimens for ZIKV by reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assays. We followed women prospectively to obtain data on pregnancy and infant outcomes.ResultsA total of 345 women were enrolled from September 2015 through May 2016; of these, 182 women (53%) tested positive for ZIKV in blood, urine, or both. The timing of acute ZIKV infection ranged from 6 to 39 weeks of gestation. Predominant maternal clinical features included a pruritic descending macular or maculopapular rash, arthralgias, conjunctival injection, and headache; 27% had fever (short-term and low-grade). By July 2016, a total of 134 ZIKV-affected pregnancies and 73 ZIKV-unaffected pregnancies had reached completion, with outcomes known for 125 ZIKV-affected and 61 ZIKV-unaffected pregnancies. Infection with chikungunya virus was identified in 42% of women without ZIKV infection versus 3% of women with ZIKV infection (P<0.001). Rates of fetal death were 7% in both groups; overall adverse outcomes were 46% among offspring of ZIKV-positive women versus 11.5% among offspring of ZIKV-negative women (P<0.001). Among 117 live infants born to 116 ZIKV-positive women, 42% were found to have grossly abnormal clinical or brain imaging findings or both, including 4 infants with microcephaly. Adverse outcomes were noted regardless of the trimester during which the women were infected with ZIKV (55% of pregnancies had adverse outcomes after maternal infection in the first trimester, 52% after infection in the second trimester, and 29% after infection in the third trimester).ConclusionsDespite mild clinical symptoms in the mother, ZIKV infection during pregnancy is deleterious to the fetus and is associated with fetal death, fetal growth restriction, and a spectrum of central nervous system abnormalities. (Funded by Ministério da Saúde do Brasil and others.).

Dataset Information

Space-time dynamics of a triple epidemic: dengue, chikungunya and Zika clusters in the city of Rio de Janeiro.

Publications

Space-time dynamics of a triple epidemic: dengue, chikungunya and Zika clusters in the city of Rio de Janeiro.

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