Dataset Information

Pediatric Severe Sepsis Prediction Using Machine Learning.

ABSTRACT: Background: Early detection of pediatric severe sepsis is necessary in order to optimize effective treatment, and new methods are needed to facilitate this early detection. Objective: Can a machine-learning based prediction algorithm using electronic healthcare record (EHR) data predict severe sepsis onset in pediatric populations? Methods: EHR data were collected from a retrospective set of de-identified pediatric inpatient and emergency encounters for patients between 2-17 years of age, drawn from the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) Medical Center, with encounter dates between June 2011 and March 2016. Results: Pediatric patients (n = 9,486) were identified and 101 (1.06%) were labeled with severe sepsis following the pediatric severe sepsis definition of Goldstein et al. (1). In 4-fold cross-validation evaluations, the machine learning algorithm achieved an AUROC of 0.916 for discrimination between severe sepsis and control pediatric patients at the time of onset and AUROC of 0.718 at 4 h before onset. The prediction algorithm significantly outperformed the Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction score (PELOD-2) (p < 0.05) and pediatric Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) (p < 0.05) in the prediction of severe sepsis 4 h before onset using cross-validation and pairwise t-tests. Conclusion: This machine learning algorithm has the potential to deliver high-performance severe sepsis detection and prediction through automated monitoring of EHR data for pediatric inpatients, which may enable earlier sepsis recognition and treatment initiation.

SUBMITTER: Le S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6798083 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pediatric Severe Sepsis Prediction Using Machine Learning.

Le Sidney S Hoffman Jana J Barton Christopher C Fitzgerald Julie C JC Allen Angier A Pellegrini Emily E Calvert Jacob J Das Ritankar R

Frontiers in pediatrics 20191011

Background: Early detection of pediatric severe sepsis is necessary in order to optimize effective treatment, and new methods are needed to facilitate this early detection. Objective: Can a machine-learning based prediction algorithm using electronic healthcare record (EHR) data predict severe sepsis onset in pediatric populations? Methods: EHR data were collected from a retrospective set of de-identified pediatric inpatient and emergency encounters for patients between 2-17 ...[more]

PMID: 31681711

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Project description:Background: Sepsis is among the leading causes of death in intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide and its recognition, particularly in the early stages of the disease, remains a medical challenge. The advent of an affluence of available digital health data has created a setting in which machine learning can be used for digital biomarker discovery, with the ultimate goal to advance the early recognition of sepsis. Objective: To systematically review and evaluate studies employing machine learning for the prediction of sepsis in the ICU. Data Sources: Using Embase, Google Scholar, PubMed/Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science, we systematically searched the existing literature for machine learning-driven sepsis onset prediction for patients in the ICU. Study Eligibility Criteria: All peer-reviewed articles using machine learning for the prediction of sepsis onset in adult ICU patients were included. Studies focusing on patient populations outside the ICU were excluded. Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods: A systematic review was performed according to the PRISMA guidelines. Moreover, a quality assessment of all eligible studies was performed. Results: Out of 974 identified articles, 22 and 21 met the criteria to be included in the systematic review and quality assessment, respectively. A multitude of machine learning algorithms were applied to refine the early prediction of sepsis. The quality of the studies ranged from "poor" (satisfying ≤ 40% of the quality criteria) to "very good" (satisfying ≥ 90% of the quality criteria). The majority of the studies (n = 19, 86.4%) employed an offline training scenario combined with a horizon evaluation, while two studies implemented an online scenario (n = 2, 9.1%). The massive inter-study heterogeneity in terms of model development, sepsis definition, prediction time windows, and outcomes precluded a meta-analysis. Last, only two studies provided publicly accessible source code and data sources fostering reproducibility. Limitations: Articles were only eligible for inclusion when employing machine learning algorithms for the prediction of sepsis onset in the ICU. This restriction led to the exclusion of studies focusing on the prediction of septic shock, sepsis-related mortality, and patient populations outside the ICU. Conclusions and Key Findings: A growing number of studies employs machine learning to optimize the early prediction of sepsis through digital biomarker discovery. This review, however, highlights several shortcomings of the current approaches, including low comparability and reproducibility. Finally, we gather recommendations how these challenges can be addressed before deploying these models in prospective analyses. Systematic Review Registration Number: CRD42020200133.

Project description:ObjectivesPrediction of late-onset sepsis (onset beyond day 3 of life) in preterm infants, based on multiple patient monitoring signals 24 hours before onset.DesignContinuous high-resolution electrocardiogram and respiration (chest impedance) data from the monitoring signals were extracted and used to create time-interval features representing heart rate variability, respiration, and body motion. For each infant with a blood culture-proven late-onset sepsis, a Cultures, Resuscitation, and Antibiotics Started Here moment was defined. The Cultures, Resuscitation, and Antibiotics Started Here moment served as an anchor point for the prediction analysis. In the group with controls (C), an "equivalent crash moment" was calculated as anchor point, based on comparable gestational and postnatal age. Three common machine learning approaches (logistic regressor, naive Bayes, and nearest mean classifier) were used to binary classify samples of late-onset sepsis from C. For training and evaluation of the three classifiers, a leave-k-subjects-out cross-validation was used.SettingLevel III neonatal ICU.PatientsThe patient population consisted of 32 premature infants with sepsis and 32 age-matched control patients.InterventionsNo interventions were performed.Measurements and main resultsFor the interval features representing heart rate variability, respiration, and body motion, differences between late-onset sepsis and C were visible up to 5 hours preceding the Cultures, Resuscitation, and Antibiotics Started Here moment. Using a combination of all features, classification of late-onset sepsis and C showed a mean accuracy of 0.79 ± 0.12 and mean precision rate of 0.82 ± 0.18 3 hours before the onset of sepsis.ConclusionsInformation from routine patient monitoring can be used to predict sepsis. Specifically, this study shows that a combination of electrocardiogram-based, respiration-based, and motion-based features enables the prediction of late-onset sepsis hours before the clinical crash moment.

Dataset Information

Pediatric Severe Sepsis Prediction Using Machine Learning.

Publications

Pediatric Severe Sepsis Prediction Using Machine Learning.

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