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Machine Learning for Mortality Prediction in Pediatric Myocarditis.

ABSTRACT: Background: Pediatric myocarditis is a rare disease. The etiologies are multiple. Mortality associated with the disease is 5-8%. Prognostic factors were identified with the use of national hospitalization databases. Applying these identified risk factors for mortality prediction has not been reported. Methods: We used the Kids' Inpatient Database for this project. We manually curated fourteen variables as predictors of mortality based on the current knowledge of the disease, and compared performance of mortality prediction between linear regression models and a machine learning (ML) model. For ML, the random forest algorithm was chosen because of the categorical nature of the variables. Based on variable importance scores, a reduced model was also developed for comparison. Results: We identified 4,144 patients from the database for randomization into the primary (for model development) and testing (for external validation) datasets. We found that the conventional logistic regression model had low sensitivity (~50%) despite high specificity (>95%) or overall accuracy. On the other hand, the ML model struck a good balance between sensitivity (89.9%) and specificity (85.8%). The reduced ML model with top five variables (mechanical ventilation, cardiac arrest, ECMO, acute kidney injury, ventricular fibrillation) were sufficient to approximate the prediction performance of the full model. Conclusions: The ML algorithm performs superiorly when compared to the linear regression model for mortality prediction in pediatric myocarditis in this retrospective dataset. Prospective studies are warranted to further validate the applicability of our model in clinical settings.

SUBMITTER: Chou FS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8102689 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background Unlike linear models which are traditionally used to study all-cause mortality, complex machine learning models can capture non-linear interrelations and provide opportunities to identify unexplored risk factors. Explainable artificial intelligence can improve prediction accuracy over linear models and reveal great insights into outcomes like mortality. This paper comprehensively analyzes all-cause mortality by explaining complex machine learning models. Methods We propose the IMPACT framework that uses XAI technique to explain a state-of-the-art tree ensemble mortality prediction model. We apply IMPACT to understand all-cause mortality for 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year follow-up times within the NHANES dataset, which contains 47,261 samples and 151 features. Results We show that IMPACT models achieve higher accuracy than linear models and neural networks. Using IMPACT, we identify several overlooked risk factors and interaction effects. Furthermore, we identify relationships between laboratory features and mortality that may suggest adjusting established reference intervals. Finally, we develop highly accurate, efficient and interpretable mortality risk scores that can be used by medical professionals and individuals without medical expertise. We ensure generalizability by performing temporal validation of the mortality risk scores and external validation of important findings with the UK Biobank dataset. Conclusions IMPACT’s unique strength is the explainable prediction, which provides insights into the complex, non-linear relationships between mortality and features, while maintaining high accuracy. Our explainable risk scores could help individuals improve self-awareness of their health status and help clinicians identify patients with high risk. IMPACT takes a consequential step towards bringing contemporary developments in XAI to epidemiology. Qui et al. present a new approach, IMPACT, that uses explainable artificial intelligence to analyze all-cause mortality. IMPACT provides insights into the individualized mortality risk scores, while maintaining high model accuracy and the expressive power to capture complex, non-linear relationships between mortality and individuals’ features.

Project description:BackgroundCOPD is a leading cause of mortality.Research questionWe hypothesized that applying machine learning to clinical and quantitative CT imaging features would improve mortality prediction in COPD.Study design and methodsWe selected 30 clinical, spirometric, and imaging features as inputs for a random survival forest. We used top features in a Cox regression to create a machine learning mortality prediction (MLMP) in COPD model and also assessed the performance of other statistical and machine learning models. We trained the models in subjects with moderate to severe COPD from a subset of subjects in Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) and tested prediction performance in the remainder of individuals with moderate to severe COPD in COPDGene and Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE). We compared our model with the BMI, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, exercise capacity (BODE) index; BODE modifications; and the age, dyspnea, and airflow obstruction index.ResultsWe included 2,632 participants from COPDGene and 1,268 participants from ECLIPSE. The top predictors of mortality were 6-min walk distance, FEV1 % predicted, and age. The top imaging predictor was pulmonary artery-to-aorta ratio. The MLMP-COPD model resulted in a C index ≥ 0.7 in both COPDGene and ECLIPSE (6.4- and 7.2-year median follow-ups, respectively), significantly better than all tested mortality indexes (P < .05). The MLMP-COPD model had fewer predictors but similar performance to that of other models. The group with the highest BODE scores (7-10) had 64% mortality, whereas the highest mortality group defined by the MLMP-COPD model had 77% mortality (P = .012).InterpretationAn MLMP-COPD model outperformed four existing models for predicting all-cause mortality across two COPD cohorts. Performance of machine learning was similar to that of traditional statistical methods. The model is available online at: https://cdnm.shinyapps.io/cgmortalityapp/.

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Machine Learning for Mortality Prediction in Pediatric Myocarditis.

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