Dataset Information

Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS:Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant-pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants. METHODS:We implemented ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of 62 hummingbird-pollinated plant species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. KEY RESULTS:Distribution models indicate future changes in the climatic suitability of their current habitats, suggesting a tendency towards discontinuity, reduction and spatial displacement. Flowering models indicate that climate can influence species phenology in different ways: some species may experience increased flowering suitability whereas others may suffer decreased suitability. CONCLUSIONS:Our results suggest that hummingbird-pollinated species are prone to changes in their geographical distribution and flowering under different climate scenarios. Such variation may impact the community structure of ecological networks and reproductive success of tropical plants in the near future.

SUBMITTER: Correa-Lima APA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6798834 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.

Correa-Lima Ana Paula Araujo APA Varassin Isabela Galarda IG Barve Narayani N Zwiener Victor Pereira VP

Annals of botany 20191001 3

<h4>Backgrounds and aims</h4>Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant-pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and f ...[more]

PMID: 31310652

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Project description:Background and aimsAlthough pollen limitation of reproduction (PL) has been widely studied, our understanding of its occurrence in tropical communities, especially for bird-pollinated plants, is underdeveloped. In addition, inclusion of both quantity and quality aspects in studies of PL are generally lacking. Within hummingbird-pollinated plants, a prediction was made for higher PL for the quality than quantity aspects and a minor effect of temporal variation because hummingbirds are constant and efficient pollen vectors but they may transfer low quality pollen.MethodsField hand and open pollination experiments were conducted on 21 species in a tropical montane rain forest over 2 years. The quantity (fruit set and seeds per fruit) and quality (seed weight and germination) aspects of reproduction were assessed as the response to open pollination relative to outcross hand pollination. The relationships between the effect size of quantity and quality aspects of reproduction and predictive plant features (self-incompatibility, autogamy, density and pollinator specialization level) were assessed with phylogenetic generalized linear models.Key resultsJust over half of all the species expressed PL for one or more response variables. On average, the severity of PL was strong for one quality variable (seed germination; 0·83), but insignificant for another (seed weight; -0·03), and low to moderate for quantity variables (0·31 for seeds per fruit and 0·39 for fruit set). There was only a minor contribution of temporal variation to PL within the studied species. Common predictors of PL, i.e. phylogenetic relatedness, self-incompatibility, autogamy, plant density and pollinator specialization level, did not adequately explain variation in PL within this community.ConclusionsDespite the measurable degree of PL within these hummingbird-pollinated plants, the causes of pollen quality and quantity insufficiency are not clear. Variables other than those tested may contribute to PL or causes of PL may vary among species and cannot adequately be accounted for when assessed from the within-community perspective.

Project description:Phenology has emerged as a key metric to measure how species respond to changes in climate. Innovative means have been developed to extend the temporal and spatial range of phenological data by obtaining data from herbarium specimens, citizen science programs, and biodiversity data repositories. These different data types have seldom been compared for their effectiveness in detecting environmental impacts on phenology. To address this, we compare three separate phenology datasets from Denmark: (i) herbarium specimen data spanning 145 years, (ii) data collected from a citizen science phenology program over a single year observing first flowering, and (iii) data derived from incidental biodiversity observations in iNaturalist over a single year. Each dataset includes flowering day of year observed for three common spring-flowering plant species: Allium ursinum (ramsons), Aesculus hippocastanum (horse chestnut), and Sambucus nigra (black elderberry). The incidental iNaturalist dataset provided the most extensive geographic coverage across Denmark and the largest sample size and recorded peak flowering in a way comparable to herbarium specimens. The directed citizen science dataset recorded much earlier flowering dates because the program objective was to report the first flowering, and so was less compared to the other two datasets. Herbarium data demonstrated the strongest effect of spring temperature on flowering in Denmark, possibly because it was the only dataset measuring temporal variation in phenology, while the other datasets measured spatial variation. Herbarium data predicted the mean flowering day of year recorded in our iNaturalist dataset for all three species. Combining herbarium data with iNaturalist data provides an even more effective method for detecting climatic effects on phenology. Phenology observations from directed and incidental citizen science initiatives will increase in value for climate change research in the coming years with the addition of data capturing the inter-annual variation in phenology.

Project description:Bangladesh is susceptible to climate change, thus a detailed study, including the analyses of trends, sub-trends, extreme events and indices was conducted to obtain a complete picture of the climate change pattern in Bangladesh utilizing daily rainfall, maximum, minimum and average temperature data of 26 stations from 1975 to 2019 using R 4.0.2 software. For the trend analysis Mann Kendal (MK), modified Mann Kendall (mMK), Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Sen's slope methods were used. Sub-trend analysis was conducted using ITA. Standard Anomaly Index (SAI) has been used to identify the frequency and severity of extreme events. ClimPACT2 software was used to check the homogeneity and calculate the extremes of temperature and rainfall data. Our analysis showed that during the last four decades, climate variables changed their patterns and trend heterogeneously over Bangladesh. Most stations showed decremental rainfall trend when central part of the country showed a substantial decrease. The northern and central parts of the country showed significant growth of trend for annual average temperature. The temperature in the monsoon season increased, whereas those in dry season decreased. The rainfall and maximum temperature were inversely related during monsoon whereas during dry season both of them decrease. The pre-monsoon and post-monsoonal rainfall also showed decreasing trends, indicating prevailing drought conditions especially in northern and central parts of the country. The SAI analysis showed alternating drought and wet years in almost all the stations. In the past 20 years, the country's western region experienced more drought years than before whereas the coastal region experienced more wet years. The analysis of climate extreme indices suggests that, Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Hot Days (TX90P) and Hot Nights (TN90P) show significant increasing trend throughout the country. The agricultural productivity, water resource management and food security are anticipated to benefit from this study.

Dataset Information

Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.

Publications

Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.

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