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Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS:Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant-pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants. METHODS:We implemented ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of 62 hummingbird-pollinated plant species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. KEY RESULTS:Distribution models indicate future changes in the climatic suitability of their current habitats, suggesting a tendency towards discontinuity, reduction and spatial displacement. Flowering models indicate that climate can influence species phenology in different ways: some species may experience increased flowering suitability whereas others may suffer decreased suitability. CONCLUSIONS:Our results suggest that hummingbird-pollinated species are prone to changes in their geographical distribution and flowering under different climate scenarios. Such variation may impact the community structure of ecological networks and reproductive success of tropical plants in the near future.

SUBMITTER: Correa-Lima APA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6798834 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.

Correa-Lima Ana Paula Araujo APA Varassin Isabela Galarda IG Barve Narayani N Zwiener Victor Pereira VP

Annals of botany 20191001 3

<h4>Backgrounds and aims</h4>Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant-pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and f ...[more]

PMID: 31310652

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Project description:Background and aimsAlthough pollen limitation of reproduction (PL) has been widely studied, our understanding of its occurrence in tropical communities, especially for bird-pollinated plants, is underdeveloped. In addition, inclusion of both quantity and quality aspects in studies of PL are generally lacking. Within hummingbird-pollinated plants, a prediction was made for higher PL for the quality than quantity aspects and a minor effect of temporal variation because hummingbirds are constant and efficient pollen vectors but they may transfer low quality pollen.MethodsField hand and open pollination experiments were conducted on 21 species in a tropical montane rain forest over 2 years. The quantity (fruit set and seeds per fruit) and quality (seed weight and germination) aspects of reproduction were assessed as the response to open pollination relative to outcross hand pollination. The relationships between the effect size of quantity and quality aspects of reproduction and predictive plant features (self-incompatibility, autogamy, density and pollinator specialization level) were assessed with phylogenetic generalized linear models.Key resultsJust over half of all the species expressed PL for one or more response variables. On average, the severity of PL was strong for one quality variable (seed germination; 0·83), but insignificant for another (seed weight; -0·03), and low to moderate for quantity variables (0·31 for seeds per fruit and 0·39 for fruit set). There was only a minor contribution of temporal variation to PL within the studied species. Common predictors of PL, i.e. phylogenetic relatedness, self-incompatibility, autogamy, plant density and pollinator specialization level, did not adequately explain variation in PL within this community.ConclusionsDespite the measurable degree of PL within these hummingbird-pollinated plants, the causes of pollen quality and quantity insufficiency are not clear. Variables other than those tested may contribute to PL or causes of PL may vary among species and cannot adequately be accounted for when assessed from the within-community perspective.

Project description:Climate extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, extreme rainfall can lead to harvest failures, flooding and consequently threaten the food security worldwide. Improving our understanding about climate extremes can mitigate the worst impacts of climate change and extremes. The objective here is to investigate the changes in climate and climate extremes by considering two time slices (i.e., 1962–1990 and 1991–2019) in all climate zones of Pakistan by utilizing observed data from 54 meteorological stations. Different statistical methods and techniques were applied on observed station data to assess changes in temperature, precipitation and spatio-temporal trends of climatic extremes over Pakistan from 1962 to 2019. The Mann-Kendal test demonstrated increasing precipitation (DJF) and decreasing maximum and minimum temperatures (JJA) at the meteorological stations located in the Karakoram region during 1962–1990. The decadal analysis, on the other hand, showed a decrease in precipitation during 1991–2019 and an increase in temperature (maximum and minimum) during 2010–2019, which is consistent with the recently observed slight mass loss of glaciers related to the Karakoram Anomaly. These changes are highly significant at 5% level of significance at most of the stations. In case of temperature extremes, summer days (SU25) increased except in zone 4, TX10p (cold days) decreased across the country during 1962–1990, except for zones 1 and 2. TX90p (warm days) increased between 1991–2019, with the exception of zone 5, and decreased during 1962–1990, with the exception of zones 2 and 5. The spatio-temporal trend of consecutive dry days (CDD) indicated a rising tendency from 1991 to 2019, with the exception of zone 4, which showed a decreasing trend. PRCPTOT (annual total wet-day precipitation), R10 (number of heavy precipitation days), R20 (number of very heavy precipitation days), and R25mm (very heavy precipitation days) increased (decreased) considerably in the North Pakistan during 1962–1990 (1991–2019). The findings of this study can help to address some of the sustainable development goals related climate action, hunger and environment. In addition, the findings can help in developing sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies against climate change and extremes. As the climate and extremes conditions are not the uniform in all climate zone, therefore, it is suggested to the formers and agriculture department to harvest crops resilient to the climatic condition of each zone. Temperature has increasing trend in the northern Pakistan, therefore, the concerned stakeholders need to make rational plans for higher river flow/flood situation due to snow and glacier melt.

Dataset Information

Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.

Publications

Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.

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