Dataset Information

Spatial Variability in the Effect of High Ambient Temperature on Mortality: An Analysis at Municipality Level within the Greater Athens Area.

ABSTRACT: Spatial variability in temperature exists within metropolitan areas but very few studies have investigated intra-urban differentiation in the temperature-mortality effects. We investigated whether local characteristics of 42 Municipalities within the Greater Athens Area lead to modified temperature effects on mortality and if effect modifiers can be identified. Generalized Estimating Equations models were used to assess the effect of high ambient temperature on the total and cause-specific daily number of deaths and meta-regression to investigate effect modification. We found significant effects of daily temperature increases on all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality (e.g., for all ages 4.16% (95% CI: 3.73,4.60%) per 1 °C increase in daily temperature (lags 0-3). Heterogeneity in the effect estimates between Municipalities was observed in several outcomes and environmental and socio-economic effect modifying variables were identified, such as % area coverage of buildings, length of roads/km2, population density, % unemployed, % born outside the EU countries and mean daily temperature. To further examine the role of temperature, we alternatively used modelled temperature per Municipality and calculated the effects. We found that heterogeneity was reduced but not eliminated. It appears that there are socioeconomic status and environmental determinants of the magnitude of heat-related effects on mortality, which are detected with some consistency and should be further investigated.

SUBMITTER: Zafeiratou S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6801795 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Spatial Variability in the Effect of High Ambient Temperature on Mortality: An Analysis at Municipality Level within the Greater Athens Area.

Zafeiratou Sofia S Analitis Antonis A Founda Dimitra D Giannakopoulos Christos C Varotsos Konstantinos V KV Sismanidis Panagiotis P Keramitsoglou Iphigenia I Katsouyanni Klea K

International journal of environmental research and public health 20190930 19

Spatial variability in temperature exists within metropolitan areas but very few studies have investigated intra-urban differentiation in the temperature-mortality effects. We investigated whether local characteristics of 42 Municipalities within the Greater Athens Area lead to modified temperature effects on mortality and if effect modifiers can be identified. Generalized Estimating Equations models were used to assess the effect of high ambient temperature on the total and cause-specific daily ...[more]

PMID: 31575034

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Project description:Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extremely hot weather. The health risks associated with extemely hot weather are not uniform across affected areas owing to variability in heat exposure and social vulnerability, but these differences are challenging to map with precision.We developed a spatially and temporally stratified case-crossover approach for delineation of areas with higher and lower risks of mortality on extremely hot days and applied this approach in greater Vancouver, Canada.Records of all deaths with an extremely hot day as a case day or a control day were extracted from an administrative vital statistics database spanning the years of 1998-2014. Three heat exposure and 11 social vulnerability variables were assigned at the residential location of each decedent. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for a 1°C increase in daily mean temperature at a fixed site with an interaction term for decedents living above and below different values of the spatial variables.The heat exposure and social vulnerability variables with the strongest spatially stratified results were the apparent temperature and the labor nonparticipation rate, respectively. Areas at higher risk had values ? 34.4°C for the maximum apparent temperature and ? 60% of the population neither employed nor looking for work. These variables were combined in a composite index to quantify their interaction and to enhance visualization of high-risk areas.Our methods provide a data-driven framework for spatial delineation of the temperature--mortality relationship by heat exposure and social vulnerability. The results can be used to map and target the most vulnerable areas for public health intervention. Citation: Ho HC, Knudby A, Walker BB, Henderson SB. 2017. Delineation of spatial variability in the temperature-mortality relationship on extremely hot days in greater Vancouver, Canada. Environ Health Perspect 125:66-75;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP224.

Project description:Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980-2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2-29% and 0.04-10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010-2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910-2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios.

Dataset Information

Spatial Variability in the Effect of High Ambient Temperature on Mortality: An Analysis at Municipality Level within the Greater Athens Area.

Publications

Spatial Variability in the Effect of High Ambient Temperature on Mortality: An Analysis at Municipality Level within the Greater Athens Area.

Similar Datasets

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