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Modeling ENSO impact on rice production in the Mekong River Delta.

ABSTRACT: The Mekong River Delta is the rice production hub in South-east Asia and has a key role in determining rice prices in the world market. The increasing variability in the local climate due to global climate changes and the increasing severity of the ENSO phenomenon threatens rice production in the region, which has consequences for local and global food security. Though existing mapping efforts delineate the consequences of saline water intrusion during El Niño and flooding events during La Niña in the basin, research to predict future impacts in rice production is rather limited. The current work uses ORYZA, an ecophysiological model, combined with historical climate data, climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 and climate-related risk maps to project the aggregate productivity and rice production impacts by the year 2050. Results show that in years of average salinity intrusion and flooding, the winter-spring rice crop in the MRD would experience an average annual decrease of 720,450 tons for 2020-2050 under the RCP4.5 scenario compared to the baseline of 2005-2016 average and another 1.17 million tons under the RCP8.5 scenario. The autumn-winter crop would decrease by 331,480 tons under RCP4.5 and 462,720 tons under RCP8.5. In years of severe salinity intrusion and flooding, the winter-spring rice crop would decrease by 2.13 million tons (10.29% lower than the projection for an average year) under RCP4.5 and 2.5 million tons (13.62%) under RCP8.5. Under severe conditions, the autumn-winter crop would have an average decrease of 1.3 million tons (7.36%) under RCP4.5 and 1.4 million tons (10.88%) for the RCP8.5 scenario. Given that most of the rice produced in this area is exported, a decline in rice supply at this scale would likely have implications on the global market price of rice affecting global food security. Such decline will also have implications for the rural economy and food security of Vietnam. Suggestions for corrective measures to reduce the impacts are briefly discussed.

SUBMITTER: Tan Yen B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6804992 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundPoultry farming is widely practiced by rural households in Vietnam and the vast majority of domestic birds are kept on small household farms. However, smallholder poultry production is constrained by several issues such as infectious diseases, including avian influenza viruses whose circulation remains a threat to public health. This observational study describes the demographic structure and dynamics of small-scale poultry farms of the Mekong river delta region.MethodFifty three farms were monitored over a 20-month period, with farm sizes, species, age, arrival/departure of poultry, and farm management practices recorded monthly.ResultsMedian flock population sizes were 16 for chickens (IQR: 10-40), 32 for ducks (IQR: 18-101) and 11 for Muscovy ducks (IQR: 7-18); farm size distributions for the three species were heavily right-skewed. Muscovy ducks were kept for long periods and outdoors, while chickens and ducks were farmed indoors or in pens. Ducks had a markedly higher removal rate (broilers: 0.14/week; layer/breeders: 0.05/week) than chickens and Muscovy ducks (broilers: 0.07/week; layer/breeders: 0.01-0.02/week) and a higher degree of specialization resulting in a substantially shorter life span. The rate of mortality due to disease did not differ much among species, with birds being less likely to die from disease at older ages, but frequency of disease symptoms differed by species. Time series of disease-associated mortality were correlated with population size for Muscovy ducks (Kendall's coefficient ??=?0.49, p-value <?0.01) and with frequency of outdoor grazing for ducks (??=?0.33, p-value?=?0.05).ConclusionThe study highlights some challenges to disease control in small-scale multispecies poultry farms. The rate of interspecific contact and overlap between flocks of different ages is high, making small-scale farms a suitable environment for pathogens circulation. Muscovy ducks are farmed outdoors with little investment in biosecurity and few inter-farm movements. Ducks and chickens are more at-risk of introduction of pathogens through movements of birds from one farm to another. Ducks are farmed in large flocks with high turnover and, as a result, are more vulnerable to disease spread and require a higher vaccination coverage to maintain herd immunity.

Project description:In this work, we have used the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to examine streamflow variability of the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) associated with changes in the Upper Mekong River Basin (UMRB) inflows. Two hypothetical experiments were formulated and evaluated for the LMRB, where we conducted runoff simulations with multiple inflow changes that include upstream runoff yield increase and decrease scenarios. Streamflow variability of the LMRB was quantified by two streamflow metrics that explain flow variability and predictability, and high flow disturbance. The model experiments were performed for the Lower Mekong River Basin with identical climate, soil, and other watershed characteristics data. Remote sensing precipitation (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, TRMM, and Global Precipitation Measurement mission, GPM), meteorological data as well as spatial data that include a digital elevation model, newly developed soil information (Harmonized World Soil Database, HWSD), and land use and land cover were processed as input to the LMRB model simulations. Observed daily streamflow data along the Lower Mekong River from Chiang Sean, Thailand to Kratie, Cambodia were used for calibration and validation. Our work results suggest that the Lower Mekong River streamflow is highly variable and has a low predictability (Colwell index of about 32%). We found that releasing more water from upstream Mekong during rainfall months by 30% would result in a reduction in the Lower Mekong streamflow predictability by about 21%. This reduction in predictability is mainly attributed to a decrease in the Contingency index. Our work shows that the ability to predict floods/droughts at the Lower Mekong River would be reduced if there is any anticipated change (i.e., increase/decrease) from UMRB releases. Our results also show that releasing more flows from the upstream Mekong would also affect flood duration and the frequency of flood occurrences downstream. The results of this work thus help to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow variability at the Lower Mekong River Basin to upstream anthropogenic changes.

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Modeling ENSO impact on rice production in the Mekong River Delta.

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