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A systematic review of the epidemiology of human monkeypox outbreaks and implications for outbreak strategy.

ABSTRACT: Monkeypox is a vesicular-pustular illness that carries a secondary attack rate in the order of 10% in contacts unvaccinated against smallpox. Case fatality rates range from 1 to 11%, but scarring and other sequelae are common in survivors. It continues to cause outbreaks in remote populations in Central and West Africa, in areas with poor access and weakened or disrupted surveillance capacity and information networks. Recent outbreaks in Nigeria (2017-18) and Cameroon (2018) have occurred where monkeypox has not been reported for over 20 years. This has prompted concerns over whether there have been changes in the biology and epidemiology of the disease that may in turn have implications for how outbreaks and cases should best be managed. A systematic review was carried out to examine reported data on human monkeypox outbreaks over time, and to identify if and how epidemiology has changed. Published and grey literature were critically analysed, and data extracted to inform recommendations on outbreak response, use of case definitions and public health advice. The level of detail, validity of data, geographical coverage and consistency of reporting varied considerably across the 71 monkeypox outbreak documents obtained. An increase in cases reported over time was supported by literature from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Data were insufficient to measure trends in secondary attack rates and case fatality rates. Phylogenetic analyses consistently identify two strains of the virus without evidence of emergence of a new strain. Understanding of monkeypox virulence with regard to clinical presentation by strain is minimal, with infrequent sample collection and laboratory analysis. A variety of clinical and surveillance case definitions are described in the literature: two definitions have been formally evaluated and showed high sensitivity but low specificity. These were specific to a Congo-Basin (CB) strain-affected area of the DRC where they were used. Evidence on use of antibiotics for prophylaxis against secondary cutaneous infection is anecdotal and limited. Current evidence suggests there has been an increase in total monkeypox cases reported by year in the DRC irrespective of advancements in the national Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) system. There has been a marked increase in number of individual monkeypox outbreak reports, from outside the DRC in between 2010 and 2018, particularly in the Central African Republic (CAR) although this does not necessarily indicate an increase in annual cases over time in these areas. The geographical pattern reported in the Nigeria outbreak suggests a possible new and widespread zoonotic reservoir requiring further investigation and research. With regards to outbreak response, increased attention is warranted for high-risk patient groups, and nosocomial transmission risks. The animal reservoir remains unknown and there is a dearth of literature informing case management and successful outbreak response strategies. Up-to-date complete, consistent and longer-term research is sorely needed to inform and guide evidence-based response and management of monkeypox outbreaks.

SUBMITTER: Beer EM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6816577 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A systematic review of the epidemiology of human monkeypox outbreaks and implications for outbreak strategy.

Beer Ellen M EM Rao V Bhargavi VB

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20191016 10

Monkeypox is a vesicular-pustular illness that carries a secondary attack rate in the order of 10% in contacts unvaccinated against smallpox. Case fatality rates range from 1 to 11%, but scarring and other sequelae are common in survivors. It continues to cause outbreaks in remote populations in Central and West Africa, in areas with poor access and weakened or disrupted surveillance capacity and information networks. Recent outbreaks in Nigeria (2017-18) and Cameroon (2018) have occurred where ...[more]

PMID: 31618206

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Project description:Dengue is an arthropod-borne infectious disease caused by dengue virus (DENV) infection and transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Approximately 50-100 million people are infected with DENV each year, resulting in a high economic burden on both governments and individuals. Here, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize information regarding the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and serotype distribution and risk factors for global dengue outbreaks occurring from 1990 to 2015. We searched the PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases through December 2016 using the term "dengue outbreak." In total, 3,853 studies were identified, of which 243 studies describing 262 dengue outbreaks met our inclusion criteria. The majority of outbreak-associated dengue cases were reported in the Western Pacific Region, particularly after the year 2010; these cases were primarily identified in China, Singapore and Malaysia. The pooled mean age of dengue-infected individuals was 30.1 years; of the included patients, 54.5% were male, 23.2% had DHF, 62.0% had secondary infections, and 1.3% died. The mean age of dengue patients reported after 2010 was older than that of patients reported before 2010 (34.0 vs. 27.2 years); however, the proportions of patients who had DHF, had secondary infections and died significantly decreased after 2010. Fever, malaise, headache, and asthenia were the most frequently reported clinical symptoms and signs among dengue patients. In addition, among the identified clinical symptoms and signs, positive tourniquet test (OR = 4.86), ascites (OR = 13.91) and shock (OR = 308.09) were identified as the best predictors of dengue infection, DHF and mortality, respectively (both P < 0.05). The main risk factors for dengue infection, DHF and mortality were living with uncovered water container (OR = 1.65), suffering from hypotension (OR = 6.18) and suffering from diabetes mellitus (OR = 2.53), respectively (all P < 0.05). The serotype distribution varied with time and across WHO regions. Overall, co-infections were reported in 47.7% of the evaluated outbreaks, and the highest pooled mortality rate (2.0%) was identified in DENV-2 dominated outbreaks. Our study emphasizes the necessity of implementing programs focused on targeted prevention, early identification, and effective treatment.

Project description:BackgroundStreptococcus pneumoniae is capable of causing multiple infectious syndromes and occasionally causes outbreaks. The objective of this review is to update prior outbreak reviews, identify control measures, and comment on transmission.MethodsWe conducted a review of published S. pneumoniae outbreaks, defined as at least two linked cases of S. pneumoniae.ResultsA total of 98 articles (86 respiratory; 8 conjunctivitis; 2 otitis media; 1 surgical site; 1 multiple), detailing 94 unique outbreaks occurring between 1916 to 2017 were identified. Reported serotypes included 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7F, 8, 12F, 14, 20, and 23F, and serogroups 6, 9, 15, 19, 22. The median attack rate for pneumococcal outbreaks was 7.0% (Interquartile range: 2.4%, 13%). The median case-fatality ratio was 12.9% (interquartile range: 0%, 29.2%). Age groups most affected by outbreaks were older adults (60.3%) and young adults (34.2%). Outbreaks occurred in crowded settings, such as universities/schools/daycares, military barracks, hospital wards, and long-term care facilities. Of outbreaks that assessed vaccination coverage, low initial vaccination or revaccination coverage was common. Most (73.1%) of reported outbreaks reported non-susceptibility to at least one antibiotic, with non-susceptibility to penicillin (56.0%) and erythromycin (52.6%) being common. Evidence suggests transmission in outbreaks can occur through multiple modes, including carriers, infected individuals, or medical devices. Several cases developed disease shortly after exposure (<?72 h). Respiratory outbreaks used infection prevention (55.6%), prophylactic vaccination (63.5%), and prophylactic antibiotics (50.5%) to prevent future cases. PPSV23 covered all reported outbreak serotypes. PCV13 covered 10 of 16 serotypes. For conjunctival outbreaks, only infection prevention strategies were used.ConclusionsTo prevent the initial occurrence of respiratory outbreaks, vaccination and revaccination is likely the best preventive measure. Once an outbreak occurs, vaccination and infection-prevention strategies should be utilized. Antibiotic prophylaxis may be considered for high-risk exposed individuals, but development of antibiotic resistance during outbreaks has been reported. The short period between initial exposure and development of disease indicates that pneumococcal colonization is not a prerequisite for pneumococcal respiratory infection.

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A systematic review of the epidemiology of human monkeypox outbreaks and implications for outbreak strategy.

Publications

A systematic review of the epidemiology of human monkeypox outbreaks and implications for outbreak strategy.

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